NBA Finals MVP Odds: Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson Clear Favorites in Two-Horse Race
The NBA Finals MVP market is a two-horse race between Jalen Brunson and Victor Wembanyama before the series even starts. Does anyone else stand a chance to win this award? Let's take a look at this NBA Finals MVP odds market ahead of Wednesday's Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1.
Peter Alexis - June 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA Finals MVP Odds: Can Anyone Besides Wemby or Brunson Win Finals MVP?
The NBA Finals MVP market is already narrowing into a top-heavy race, with Victor Wembanyama favored at -165 and Jalen Brunson sitting as the clear challenger at +200. The odds reflect both team expectations and usage, as Wembanyama and Brunson are the two players most likely to dominate touches, shots, late-game possessions, and the overall narrative of the series.
Karl-Anthony Towns sits at +2000, OG Anunoby is +4000, Stephon Castle is +6000, and De’Aaron Fox is +10000. Realistically, this market feels like a two-man race at the top, with Towns and Castle serving as the only true longshot paths based on volume and role.
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NBA Finals MVP Odds
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NBA Finals MVP Odds Breakdown
Victor Wembanyama (-165) Check out these best MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wembanyama is the rightful favorite because he can control the series on both ends. His offensive usage, defensive impact, rebounding, rim protection, and matchup gravity give him the cleanest MVP case if the Spurs win the title. Even if another San Antonio player has a strong series, Wembanyama’s all-around influence will be difficult to ignore.
The price is expensive, but it matches the situation. Wembanyama does not need to lead every game in scoring to win this award because his defensive presence can define the series just as much as his offensive production. If San Antonio wins, he is the obvious first name voters will look toward.
Jalen Brunson (+200) Check out these best MVP odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Brunson is the clear challenger and likely the only player with a realistic chance to beat Wembanyama if the Knicks win. New York’s offense runs through him in every major moment, and his shot volume gives him the easiest statistical path on the Knicks roster. If he averages big scoring numbers and closes wins late, the narrative becomes simple.
The value is cleaner than Wembanyama because Brunson has a direct path as the lead guard and emotional engine of the Knicks. The concern is that he needs New York to win the series, and he may need to outshine Towns by a clear margin. Still, at +200, Brunson is the strongest non-Wembanyama option.
Karl-Anthony Towns (+2000) Check out these best MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Towns is the best longshot on the Knicks side because he has the offensive ceiling to swing multiple games. If Brunson gets trapped or forced into inefficient nights, Towns can become the matchup-breaker with his shooting, post scoring, and rebounding. A few dominant scoring performances would put him into the conversation quickly.
The issue is usage hierarchy. Brunson is still the engine, and Finals MVP usually follows the player most closely tied to late-game shot creation. Towns needs a very specific script: New York wins, Brunson is good but not overwhelming, and Towns dominates the frontcourt matchup enough to become the defining story.
OG Anunoby (+4000) Check out these best MVP odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Anunoby’s path is much narrower. He can be hugely valuable defensively, especially if his physicality and wing versatility help New York contain San Antonio’s secondary scorers. He can also hit enough threes to matter in a few games.
The problem is volume. Anunoby is unlikely to get enough shots or on-ball usage to build an MVP case unless the series becomes defense-heavy and he delivers a signature two-way performance across several wins. He may be essential to New York’s title chances, but that does not make him a likely Finals MVP candidate.
Stephon Castle (+6000) Check out these best MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Castle is the intriguing longshot for San Antonio because his role has grown throughout the postseason. He has already shown he can be a real offensive option in big moments, and his scoring volume gives him a better case than most players priced this long. If teams overload on Wembanyama and Castle keeps punishing the defense, his number could look interesting.
Still, it is hard to see him overtaking Wembanyama unless something unusual happens. Castle would need to lead the Spurs in scoring for multiple wins, hit major late-game shots, and benefit from Wembanyama being more dominant defensively than offensively. He is a fun longshot, but the Wembanyama shadow is enormous.
De’Aaron Fox (+10000) Check out these best MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Fox is a name-value longshot, but the current setup makes him very difficult to trust. He has struggled since returning from his recent injury, and his burst has not looked reliable enough to project a Finals MVP run. Even if he has one big scoring game, sustaining that over a full series is a much different ask.
At +10000, the price reflects how far he has fallen in the pecking order. Fox would need a dramatic turnaround, a major usage spike, and multiple closing performances to get into the real conversation. Based on current form and role, he is highly unlikely to win it.
NBA Finals MVP Betting Outlook
This market is really Wembanyama vs. Brunson. Wembanyama has the strongest overall case because of his two-way dominance and San Antonio’s dependence on him, while Brunson is the clean Knicks answer because of his shot volume and late-game role.
Towns and Castle are the only longshots worth taking seriously. Towns has the scoring ceiling to steal the narrative for New York, while Castle has enough usage to become a surprise Spurs story. Everyone else needs too much to break right, and Fox’s recent injury struggles make his +10000 price feel more like a name than a real path.
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