March Madness Bubble Watch & Bracketology, Will UNC, Arkansas Make NCAA Tournament?

For most Division 1 teams, there are only six regular season games left in 2025. The clock is ticking as each bubble squad tries to build their resume and impress the NCAA Selection Committee. Just because you have a brand-name program, doesn't mean you are an auto-bid to March Madness, and some are learning that the hard way right now.

North Carolina and Arkansas are two of those teams, usual powerhouse programs that are having a tough time in 2025. According to the latest Odds to Make the NCAA Tournament, Arkansas is a toss-up to make it at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Tar Heels are a significant underdog to find their way in. Let's look at their remaining paths to the Field of 68 and the latest Bubble Watch Odds.

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March Madness Bubble Watch Odds

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March Madness Bubble Watch

1. North Carolina To Make the NCAA Tournament +185 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a disastrous season in Hubert Davis' fourth year at the helm. After miraculous run to the National Championship Game in his first season, the wheels are slowly coming off in 2025. They team made it to the Sweet 16 last year, but an appearance in March Madness appears increasingly unlikely for the Heels. They sit at 15-11 with an atrocious 1-10 record in Quad 1, and senior leader RJ Davis hasn't been able to carry this team. We're seeing a pretty soft price of +185 of UNC to still make it to the Field of 68 somehow, but it feels more like a brand-name price than anything else.

It's looking bleak for UNC with the remaining schedule failing to offer many chances. Unlike the SEC, the ACC is struggling tremendously this year, leading to less resume-building chances. A home game against Duke in their final regular season matchup is their only Quad 1 chance, and the singular Q2 game is on the road at FSU. The rest of their four games are Quads 3 and 4, which aren't going to make an impact. They are 9-point home favorites against NC State tonight in one of those Q3 games, and will need to blow them away for some style points. If UNC wants to make it, they probably need to win five of these last six games, especially if they can't beat a stacked Duke team. But if they can stun the Blue Devils on March 8th, everything changes. Keep an eye on the build up to that matchup, because the road to the tournament for UNC is tobacco flavored.

2. Arkansas To Make the NCAA Tournament -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been all over the map in John Calipari's first season at Arkansas. He left Kentucky after the Wildcats couldn't quite get over the hump in March, and is starting fresh in Fayetteville. The Hogs were probably dead and buried until they stunned Coach Cal's former team in Lexington a few weeks ago. They also came back against the Georgia Bulldogs with a buzzer-beater three at the end of January. That win could be the difference in one of those two teams making it, with the Bulldogs sitting just behind them at +135 odds.

Despite a flurry of strong wins to resurrect their season, Arkansas also came up short against Alabama and Texas A&M, with either game providing the boost they needed to solidify their position. They are 3-8 in Quad 1 games, and will need to turn it around quick if they are going to build up their resume. The good news for the Hogs is that they have 4 Q1 games left, and 2 Q2 games. It starts tonight on the road against Auburn, where they are unlikely to upset the Tigers as a 15-point underdog. They also have a chance on Saturday, hosting No. 15 Mizzou in a rivalry revenge game. They lost by 20 last time out, and will require a home upset to make a mark on their season. A battle against Mississippi State and on the road at Vandy will wrap up their regular season. If they can find a way to win half of those remaining four Quad 1 games, they should find their way into the field.

Can either team make the Final Four if they slide into the Field? Check out the latest March Madness Final Four Odds