2025 NCAA Tournament West Region Preview: Florida, St. John's Paths to Championship

Welcome to the Region of Death... I mean West. If it sounds like a World Cup group of juggernauts, that's because it is. The NCAA Tournament West Region is stacked with two major conference champions, last year's National Champion, four of the top-12 teams on the metrics, and some of the hottest teams in the country.

Florida won the SEC Tournament, St. John's won the Big East Tournament, Texas Tech is by far the best 3-seed, Maryland is head and shoulders above all of the other 4-seeds, and Missouri as a 6-seed is ranked above every other 5-seed, 6-seed, and even several of the 4's. And to top it all off, the reigning champs are sitting at the 8-seed in the underachieving UConn Huskies. So how did all of these powerhouses arrive in the same region? No one is quite sure, but we are in for a viewing treat as fans.

While everyone is saying the Gators are going to roll to the Final Four at -115 odds, they're going to have a tough road to get there. Let's explain their path to the Championship in this West Region Preview.

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West Region Favorites

1. Florida Gators (+340)

You simply can't say enough about the Florida Gators over the last few months. They have been flat-out incredible, losing only once since February 1st. Even in the one loss, where they faced a 25-point early deficit against the hot shooting Georgia Bulldogs, Walter Clayton Jr. and his teammates climbed all the way back and took the lead with just 50 seconds remaining, before ultimately coming up short on the road.

That type of resiliency is going to play so well for them in the tournament if they ever do find themselves trailing, which isn't often. Todd Golden's team is stacked with a 9-deep rotation, featuring shooters, outstanding length in Alex Condon, and gritty defenders like Alijah Martin and Will Richard. Walter Clayton has been phenomenal as the leader of this group, pushing it in transition and helping the Gators get the best shot.

They are the top offense in college basketball per KenPom, and have the rare top-10 defense to go with it. That is certainly a championship recipe, and they proved it with a scorching run through the SEC Tournament against elite offenses like Missouri and Alabama, and a well-rounded Tennessee team in the Championship. They hardly even struggled once.

The Gators are looking more and more like the UConn Huskies squads of the last two years, who they'll ironically be playing in the second round if both favorites win. Dan Hurley's stacked UConn teams cruised to the NCAA Championship with ease both times, hardly allowing opponents within single digits of them.

Florida has moved into the second-best odds to win it all, behind only Duke (who has a much easier draw), and could certainly run the table at +340. While Auburn led the way in the SEC for most of the season, the tables are seemingly turning at the right time for Florida, peaking on both sides of the ball. They will be a nearly impossible out in current form, so you're safe to take them deep in your bracket, even with this level of competition.

2. St. John's Red Storm (+2900)

Watching the St. John's and Rick Pitino redemption arc in 2025 has been a treat for the college basketball world. They've trailed in many first halves, but come surging back in the second with next-level conditioning, veteran guard play, and suffocating defense.

RJ Luis commands the offense, and Zuby Ejiofor is a force to be reckoned with down low. No one in the Big East could figure out how to stop the 6-foot-9, 240-pound big man, and he had his way in the conference tournament. Any time the Red Storm were in a close game, you could expect a drive from Luis, or a dish to Ejiofor, or another clutch shot from Seton Hall transfer Kadary Richmond.

Rick Pitino has this team very well put together, but the one area of concern is their offensive efficiency. It's all the way down at 65th. They are top-2 nationally in defense, there's no doubt about that, and defense wins championships. But in order to get put in that position, you have to survive some scary tests in the first few rounds, and this bracket region is full of them. While 15-seeded Omaha may not give the Johnnies a run for their money, it could come from Kansas, Texas Tech, Mizzou, or Maryland/Florida up top.

St. John's has the worst odds of any 2-seed to make the Final Four at +550, largely due to the issues they'll face in this region. Falling behind in the first half may have worked timelessly in the Big East, but eventually, you'll get caught lacking on a neutral court against an unknown opponent.

The Johnnies shoot the 18th-fewest three's in the country, and make them at barely over 30%, which ranks 337th on the season. Trying to come from behind without making 3-balls is a tough proposition, and these concerns may follow them throughout the tournament. As great as the regular season has been, this is probably not the spot to be backing St. John's on a deep run.

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West Region First-Round Matchups

8. UConn (-5.5) vs. 9. Oklahoma

The two-time defending National Champions are joining this stacked region, a far cry from the powerhouse that they were in the last few years. But they are still Dan Hurley's UConn, and they have the potential to pull some surprises here.

It begins with Oklahoma, who's finished strong down the stretch, but doesn't quite stack up to UConn at full potential. They have young stars in Jeremiah Fears, but they don't have the same tournament experience as the Huskies, and it will be exposed early on. UConn wins this one, but runs into the Florida buzzsaw in the second round. It will be a very tough task to upset them

5. Memphis (+2.5) vs. 12. Colorado State

Everyone loves to take the 12 over the 5-seed in their early upsets, but this time it might make sense. Colorado State is the only favored 12-seed, sitting at -2.5 over the Memphis Tigers ahead of their Friday opener.

The Tigers may be without star guard Tyrese Hunter due to an ankle/foot injury, another thing hurting this line. But it comes down to the red-hot Rams taking this by storm, winners of 10 straight including an unexpected run to the Mountain West Tournament Championship. Nique Clifford is a veteran with NCAA Tournament experience over the past several seasons, and can certainly lead the Rams to a first round "upset" over the reeling Tigers.

4. Maryland (-10.5) vs. 13. Grand Canyon

The Maryland Terrapins are red-hot, and probably would have won the Big Ten Tournament Championship if not for a full court drive by the Michigan Wolverines at the buzzer. The Terps lost by one point there, but had won 12 of their last 14 games before that. Their starting unit is called the "Crab-Five", and they are the highest-scoring group in college basketball. There are concerns of depth behind that, but they are playing as well as any team in the country at full power.

Don't discount Grand Canyon though, another tough team in this West Region. They upset Saint Mary's in the first round of the tournament last year as a 12-seed, and nearly took down Alabama in the game after that. Tyon Grant-Foster leads the Lopes back to the tournament for a second-straight season, and they aren't buying all the hype on Maryland. If they can get Julian Reese or Derik Queen in foul trouble early, it may spell disaster for the Terps.

6. Missouri (-6.5) vs. 11. Drake

The Missouri Tigers are getting picked all over the map to lose this game to Drake. I don't think that's going to happen, and I'll tell you why. Sure, the Tigers did stumble down the stretch, losing five of their last seven games after putting up 110 on Alabama in mid February. But their potent offense is a matchup nightmare

Many pundits are trying to say that the Drake defense is going to shut down the Tigers here, and it's just hard to believe. Drake is by far the slowest team in the field, and the slowest in the country at that, 364th overall pace. They are a great rebounding team and force a lot of turnovers, but they also give it away a ton (277th).

Mizzou feasts off of chaos, and raising the tempo of this game will force the Bulldogs out of their play style. They want to use the entire clock, but Mizzou is not going to let that happen, and if they are building an early lead, the Bulldogs will have to ratchet up the pace to come from behind. The Tigers have seen great success in the first half this year, sitting at No. 8 in the country at +7.5 first half scoring margin over opponents.

Think about a Tony Bennett Virginia basketball team of the last decade trying to come from behind in the second half, it didn't work all that often. The system relies on building an early lead to stall the opponent, and while Drake is 30-3 and exhibited great success over their Missouri Valley foes, Mizzou has the SEC size and speed to become a matchup nightmare. Pay close attention to the first half of this opening round clash, it will tell the tale early.

3. Texas Tech (-14.5) vs. 14. UNC Wilmington

Texas Tech is a -14.5 favorite in this spot over UNC Wilmington. Out of all the 3-seeds, I'm the least worried about them losing here. We see one go down from time to time, but this isn't really the spot for that to happen. The Red Raiders are top-5 offense and are battle tested with a strong Big 12 road record. They are prepping for a deeper run, and it would be shocking for them to lose here.

7. Kansas (-4.5) vs. 10. Arkansas

The Kansas Jayhawks will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the most exciting coaching matchup of the first round. Bill Self's Jayhawks are a slight favorite over John Calipari's Hogs in his first season at the helm. All college basketball fans will be tuned in to see these legendary coaches trade blows on Thursday night in Providence.

An important reminder that Kansas was a preseason No. 1 team, and held that rank for the first month of the season before it went sideways. They have three super seniors in Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, and DaJuan Harris that are hungry for one more tournament run. While the season hasn't gone to plan for Kansas, they still have the talent and leadership to make a splash, although it will be tougher to do in this West Region. Regardless, we have Kansas rated as one of our five sleepers in the tournament, and they'll have their hands full in an early test with a much-improved Arkansas team.

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