SMU NCAA Tournament Odds: Mustangs 4-Game Losing Skid Casts Doubt on March Madness Bid Ahead of ACC Tournament
The Cincinnati Bearcats didn't do themselves any favors with a late regular season loss to TCU, but they still have a chance to go on a mini run in the Big 12 Tournament and play their way into March Madness. How many games do they need to win to get off the bubble? Peter Alexis breaks down Cincinnati's NCAA Tournament odds ahead of Tuesday's opener with Utah.
Peter Alexis - March 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadSMU NCAA Tournament Odds: Can Mustangs Stop 4-Game Losing Skid, Secure March Madness Spot with Win Over Syracuse on Tuesday in ACC Tournament?
SMU enters the ACC Tournament in a strange position for a bubble team. The Mustangs are 19-12 overall with an 8-10 conference record, good for the No. 11 seed in the ACC Tournament, yet betting markets still list them as -200 favorites to make the NCAA Tournament. That price suggests oddsmakers believe SMU is still more likely than not to land in the field, even after a late-season collapse.
The Mustangs head to Charlotte on a four-game losing streak, including three losses to teams not projected to make the NCAA Tournament, which has put their résumé under a microscope. According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, SMU currently sits among the “Last Four In,” likely headed to the First Four in Dayton. Their first opportunity to stop the skid comes Tuesday afternoon against Syracuse, where the Mustangs are -5 favorites and -200 on the moneyline in what could effectively serve as a play-in game for their tournament hopes.
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Syracuse vs. SMU Odds
Syracuse vs. SMU Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 10th, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ACC Network
Click here for complete Syracuse vs. SMU Odds
SMU NCAA Tournament Odds
Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Yes | -200 | 66.7% |
No | +155 | 39.2% |
SMU NCAA Tournament Odds Breakdown
SMU Analytics Profile
Despite their shaky finish, SMU still grades out extremely well in the advanced metrics that the selection committee values heavily. The Mustangs sit 36th in NET and 39th in KenPom, while also ranking inside the top 45 across several other predictive systems including BPI, Torvik, and Evan Miya.
Those numbers usually place teams comfortably inside the tournament field. SMU also owns four Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 2 victories, while avoiding any damaging losses to weaker opponents. Their clean record against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams (12-0 combined) gives them a strong baseline résumé compared to many other bubble teams.
Even their losses have been competitive. Five of SMU’s defeats came by four points or fewer, reinforcing the idea that they are consistently competitive against high-level teams.
SMU Resume Analysis
SMU’s at-large case is anchored by several impressive wins. The Mustangs defeated Texas A&M in a neutral-site overtime game, earned a road win at Mississippi State, and most notably crushed North Carolina 97-83 in ACC play.
They also earned a key late-season victory against Louisville, beating the Cardinals 95-85, which could become especially important if the Mustangs advance to face Louisville again in the conference tournament.
Offensively, SMU has been one of the ACC’s most explosive teams. The Mustangs average 86.2 points per game, rank near the top of the conference in assists (17.8 per game), and shoot nearly 38% from three-point range. Their balanced scoring attack includes five players averaging double figures, making them difficult to defend when the offense is clicking.
Tuesday vs. Syracuse: Must-Win Game
Still, the Mustangs cannot afford another loss right now. SMU opens the ACC Tournament Tuesday against Syracuse, a team that already beat them by one point earlier this season. That rematch could effectively determine whether SMU’s season continues.
A win over Syracuse would give SMU its 20th victory, snap the four-game losing streak, and likely solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament field. Lunardi has indicated that one win should be enough, though it might still place the Mustangs in the First Four.
If SMU advances, they would likely face No. 6 seed Louisville on Wednesday, a team they split with during the regular season. While Louisville is arguably the stronger team overall, a competitive showing — or another win — would almost certainly remove any remaining doubt about SMU’s tournament bid.
SMU's Path to March Madness
Despite the late-season struggles, SMU’s résumé metrics remain strong enough to keep them inside the projected field. Their top-40 efficiency rankings, multiple Quad 1 wins, and strong offensive profile continue to carry weight with bracket projections.
For now, the Mustangs are still in control of their destiny.
Beat Syracuse on Tuesday and end the losing streak, and SMU should finally end its nine-year NCAA Tournament drought, even if it means taking a trip to Dayton for the First Four. Lose, and the Mustangs may spend the rest of the week nervously watching the bubble around them collapse.
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