Nathan's Hot Dog Contest Best Bet: Will Patrick Bertoletti Challenge Joey Chestnut on July 4th?
Joey Chestnut is back to chase history at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, but his presence changes the wagering landscape for everyone else. With the rest of the field likely fighting for second, McBets is diving into Patrick Bertoletti's total for his best bet.
McBets - July 4, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadHot Dog Contest Prediction: Evaluating Patrick Bertoletti's Chances Against Joey Chestnut at Coney Island
There is no bigger name in competitive eating than Joey Chestnut, and with America celebrating its 250th birthday, all signs point toward him chasing history rather than simply winning another Mustard Belt. That makes Patrick Bertoletti’s total one of my favorite bets on the board.
I’m backing the under.
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Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
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Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction
Bertoletti has firmly established himself as one of the world’s elite competitive eaters, but his recent Nathan’s performances suggest this number is simply a bit too ambitious.
Last year, Bertoletti finished second after consuming 46.5 hot dogs, more than eight dogs short of this year’s posted total. While that performance came against a dominant Joey Chestnut, it’s worth remembering that Bertoletti was never truly pushed to increase his pace once second place was secured.
The biggest factor in this handicap is Joey Chestnut himself.
Chestnut isn’t showing up simply to win. His goal is to break his own world record of 76 hot dogs, and if he pushes that pace again, the rest of the field will essentially be competing for second from the opening minute. That creates a race where Bertoletti’s objective becomes holding off James Webb and the rest of the challengers rather than trying to keep pace with an impossible number.
History also favors the under.
In 2025, Bertoletti finished with 46.5 dogs. In 2024, when Chestnut did not compete, Bertoletti won the contest with 58 dogs, but that was under completely different race dynamics where first place remained within reach throughout the competition.
With Chestnut back and likely chasing history, this contest returns to a much different script.
James Webb has also continued closing the gap on Bertoletti. After finishing just one hot dog behind him last year, there’s every reason to believe the battle for second will once again be tightly contested rather than forcing Bertoletti into a record-setting performance.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bet
- 2u Pick: Patrick Bertoletti Under 54.5 Hot Dogs (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
A total in the mid-50s asks Bertoletti to significantly outperform what we’ve seen with Chestnut back in the field. Given the expected pace of this contest, the likely race for second place, and his recent history at Nathan’s, I believe this number is simply too high.
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