UFC 273 Complete Betting Preview: Main Card Breakdown
UFC 273 Complete Betting Preview: Main Card Breakdown
UFC 273 is this weekend, and oddsmakers think it’s one of the most lopsided cards in the history of the UFC. The two title fights on this card are among the 5 most lopsided since 2019, including the biggest favorite in a title fight since 2019.
Vinc Pichel v. Mark Madsen
On a card filled with massive favorites, we start with the tightest match. Pichel is the favorite with -125 odds, or an implied 55.6% chance to win the fight. Meanwhile, Madsen is given +118 odds, or an implied 45.9% chance to win.
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The tight odds make sense, it’s a fight between two guys with similar resumes. Both older without a lot of fights. Pichel gets the edge because of his slightly longer resume, but Madsen is undefeated. That makes this an incredibly hard fight to split for oddsmakers.
Vinc Pichel v. Mark Madsen Odds
| Odds | Fighter | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -125 | Vinc Pichel | 55.6% |
| +118 | Mark Madsen | 45.9% |
Mackenzie Dern v. Tecia Torres
This one is even tighter than the last one. Oddsmakers can’t split the Dern v. Torres fight either. Dern is the slight favorite at -110, or an implied 52.4% chance to win. Torres is given +104 odds, or an implied 49% chance.
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The odds being tight here doesn’t make as much sense as the other fight. Dern feels like the clearly better fighter despite losing her last fight. Torres has 5 losses in 18 fights, including a once 4 time losing streak. Torres has the momentum here, but their resumes suggest that Dern should be a bigger favorite than oddsmakers have made her.
Mackenzie Dern v. Tecia Torres Odds
| Fighter | Odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | -110 | 52.4% |
| Tecia Torres | +104 | 49% |
Gilbert Burns v. Khazmat Chimaev
This is where things get lopsided. Oddsmakers don’t believe this is going to be much of a fight. Chimaev is a massive favorite to win this one, with oddsmakers giving him -500 odds or an implied 83.3% chance to win. Burns is given +425 odds, or an implied 19% chance to win.
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The odds here are a little surprising. Chimaev has dominated UFC winning all four of his fights and three of them in the first round. However, he hasn’t fought someone of Burns’ caliber yet. That isn’t stopping oddsmakers from expecting Chimaev to continue his domination though.
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Gilbert Burns v. Khazmat Chimaev Odds
| Odds | Fighter | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -500 | Khazmat Chimaev | 83.3% |
| +425 | Gilbert Burns | 19% |
Aljamain Sterling v. Petr Yan
Yan is a massive favorite in this fight. Oddsmakers give him -480 odds, or an implied 82.8% chance to win. Those are the fourth-best odds any fighter has had in a men’s title fight since UFC 235. Sterling is given +385 odds, or an implied 20.6% chance to win the fight.
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Yan and Sterling is an interesting dynamic. Yan was going to defeat Sterling in their last fight before a late disqualification. Oddsmakers are clearly taking that into consideration here. That said, Sterling did technically win and that has to give him the momentum and a mental bump compared to when they fought the last time.
Aljamain Sterling v. Petr Yan Odds
| Odds | Fighter | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -480 | Petr Yan | 82.8% |
| +385 | Aljamain Sterling | 20.6% |
Alexander Volkanovski v. Chang Sung Jung
Volkanovski is given -700 odds, or an implied 87.5% chance to win the fight. Those are the best odds anyone has had in a men’s title fight since UFC 235 when Jon Jones was given -750 odds against Anthony Smith. Meanwhile, Chan Sung Jung is given +550 odds, or an implied 15.4% chance to win his first world title.
Click here for Volkanovski vs Sung Jung Odds
This matchup is very weird. Sung Jung hasn’t been on a UFC pay per view card since UFC 163 in 2013, he lost a title fight to Jose Aldo. To put that into perspective, Volkanovski didn’t have his UFC debut fight until November of 2016, more than 3 full years after Sung Jung fought Aldo. When resumes are that different, massive odds differences are to be expected. That said The Korean Zombie is the 4th ranked featherweight, so should Volkanovski be the biggest favorite in a men’s title fight since UFC 235?
Alexander Volkanovski v. Chang Sung Jung Odds
| Odds | Fighter | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -700 | Alexander Volkanovski | 87.5% |
| +550 | Chang Sung Jung | 15.4% |
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