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Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds and Betting Data: Money Backing Dern to Win Outright

Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan odds and betting data for the main event at UFC Fight night this weekend. Who should you be betting on? Well, the majority of bettors are backing Dern and sportsbooks seem to agree.
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Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds and Betting Data: Money Backing Dern to Win Outright

When: October 1, 10:00 PM EDT

Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

The UFC returns after a week hiatus this week to their home at the UFC Apex, for another great night of fights featuring 14 in total. While there is plenty of value in this card from top to bottom, today we’re going to take a closer look at the main event between two top 10 strawweights. 

Let’s dive into both fighters, as well as where the odds are headed as fight night approaches in Las Vegas.

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Mackenzie Dern (12-4-0)

Joining the UFC in March of 2018 from Invicta FC, Dern has racked up a record of 7-2 in the time since. Her arguably best win to date came the last time we saw her in the octagon, an April split decision win over Tecia Torres.

Coming into this fight, Dern trails Yan nearly across the board in metrics, but does hold an edge in submission averages in her time with the UFC. As of Saturday, Dern is averaging 1.98 submissions per 15 minutes vs. 0.

Yan Xiaonan  (19-6-0)

Yan is likely coming into this one at a discount, having now lost two straight, her first losses in her time with the UFC. A closer loss shows not all defeats are made the same, as she lost to the current champion Carla Esparza, and most recently, Marina Rodriguez via split decision. 

Against Dern, Yan holds the edges nearly across the board from a metric standpoint including significant strikes landed per 15 minutes, striking accuracy, striking defense, and takedown averages per 15 minutes (2x). Critically, Yan also absorbs fewer shots and has nearly a 30% higher takedown defense clip. 

Click here for Dern vs. Xiaonan odds

Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan  Odds

Given her stature in the division and recent win over Torres, Dern came into this fight a heavy -185 favorite (Yan +160), and the action has been one-sided since. As fight night approaches at the Apex, the action continues to be one-sided, as Dern has ballooned all the way up to -260 in some shops. 

For those looking to get down on the favorite, Dern backers would be best suited to head to DraftKings (-230). For those looking to bet Yan, which is my top UFC prediction of the week, the best number currently available is over BetMGM (+230).

Click here to see the latest betting odds for Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan 

Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Odds & Public Betting Data

While the fight is split, 50-50, when it comes to bets, there is way more money backing Mackenzie Dern to win outright. Dern has only 50% of the bets backing her but 61% of the money is behind her. That would insinuate that the sharp bettors are on Dern to win.

How To Bet On Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan 

Now we’ve given you all odds and betting data you need to wager on UFC Fight Night, let’s dive into the best betting promo available to you.

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Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.


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