Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Odds: Makhachev Given an 80% Chance to Beat Volkanovski

UFC 284 is this Saturday. Islam Makhachev takes on Alexander Volkanovski. Johnny Covers breaks down the odds.
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Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Odds: Makhachev Given an 80% Chance to Beat Volkanovski

This is the fight of all fights to make to start 2023 in combat sports. 

Alexander Volkanovski, the world's top pound-for-pound fighter at featherweight, will challenge lightweight champion Islam Makhachev for the title on Saturday night (Sunday) in Australia. Given that the winner will be dubbed the best fighter in the promotion, the No. 1 and No. 2 pound-for-pounds both have only suffered one professional defeat.

Can the undersized Volkanovski overcome the overwhelming odds? Let's look more closely.

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Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: February 11, 2023
  • Time: 10:00 PM EDT
  • Where: RAC Arena (AUS), Perth, Australia
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Click here for Makhachev vs. Volkanovski odds

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Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Breakdown

Islam Makhachev (23-1-0)

Islam, a former student of the legendary Khabib, debuted in the UFC in 2015 and quickly dominated his opponents. Beginning in 2021, Islam's domination accelerated, and he racked up four straight victories inside the octagon before being matched up against Charles Oliveira in October for the lightweight title; where he made a forceful statement.

Volkanovski steps into the lightweight classification for this matchup because no one else in the division has volunteered, or possibly at Islam's discretion as simply the biggest fight to make. 

From a statistical perspective, Islam has advantages practically everywhere, with significantly superior striking accuracy and absorbing only 25% of his opponent's strikes. The large edges, however, are located on the ground. The edges are enormous, especially in takedown average (3x), takedown average per 15 minutes (6x), and takedown accuracy (2x).

Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)

After joining the UFC in 2016, Volkanovski improved with each appearance, winning seven in a row until facing the title holder Max Holloway for the championship in December 2019. After winning by decision against Holloway, Volk continued to defend his championship four more times, two of which were against Holloway.

Volk will try to join a select group of fighters by becoming a two-division champion at the same time since there is no one remaining in his own division to challenge him. If he does, it will almost certainly involve striking because he has an advantage over his opponent in terms of significant strikes delivered per minute—nearly three times as many as his.

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski Odds

When these odds opened up, Makahchev was listed as high as -490, as the lightweight champion was thought by many to give Volkanovski no chance. Opening at +380, Volk has seen the bulk of the early action, settling in at around +300 across the board. 

Click here to see the latest betting odds for Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski Odds and Public Betting Data

According to OddsShark, at average betting odds of +300 (Volkanovski) and -400 (Makahchev), things are approximately split down the middle at 50% on both sides. As fight night approaches, expect even more love for the hometown of Volkanovski to pour in. 

How To Bet On Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski

Now that we’ve given you all the odds and betting data you need to wager on Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski, let’s dive into the best betting promo available.

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Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.

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