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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Odds: Shevchenko Given an 86% Chance to Beat Grasso

Valentina Shevchenko defends her women's flyweight championship against challenger Alexa Grasso at UFC 285. Johnny Covers takes a closer at both fighters and where the odds are headed.
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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Odds: Shevchenko Given an 86% Chance to Beat Grasso

Before Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return to the octagon on Saturday at UFC 285, Valentina Shevchenko (23-3, 12-2 UFC) will defend her women's flyweight championship against challenger Alexa Grasso, who is rated sixth (15-3, 7-3 UFC). While much of the attention, in some ways rightfully so, is on the main event, the co-main 125-pound title fight should be getting much more attention. 

Let's look closer at both fighters and where the odds are headed.

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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: March 4, 2023

Time: 10:00 PM EDT

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Where to Watch: PPV

Click here for Shevchenko vs Grasso odds

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Breakdown

Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0)

The 34-year-old is the second-greatest female UFC fighter of all time (with losses only to Amanda Nunes), and she's a terror with her ground-and-pound offense.   Shevchenko has considerable strength in areas in which Grasso is weak, notably in the striking department. It is possible that it is only a matter of time before the Kyrgyzstani fighter puts Grasso in that dangerous crucifix position and hammers her to a victory via stoppage.

Even though Shevchenko is coming off an unimpressive performance against Taila Santos, Grasso will have difficulty competing against Shevchenko on Saturday as the odds suggest.

Alexa Grasso (15-3-0)

Grasso, much like many other Mexican fighters, maintains a tight guard which protects her from a significant amount of attacks on their feet. She has excellent footwork and is able to be extremely patient with her strikes as she waits for the appropriate moment to deliver them. This is primarily in boxing, however, and Shevchenko will provide plenty of angles that are simply not boxing. 

Shevchenko is going to try to clinch and trip Grasso as soon as she gets the chance because Grasso's takedown defense is only 64%. In previous years, Grasso has struggled while facing wrestlers (she has lost to Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza), and if this battle hits the mat and stays there, Shevchenko will have an easy victory.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Odds

When these odds opened up, Shevchenko was listed as a massive favorite, coming in at -550 while Grasso was listed at +400. Since then, even more, love has come in on Shevchenko, as she now sits at around -700 across the board.

For those looking to still bet the favorite, DraftKings is currently the best out, with Shevchenko listed as a -600 favorite. For Grasso backers, bettors should head to Caesars at +550. 

Click here to see the latest betting odds for Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso

FighterOddsImplied Chance
Shevchenko-60085.71%
Grasso+55015.38%

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Odds & Public Betting Data

As of Wednesday, there is no public betting data yet available. However, based on where the money has flowed up to his point, I think it’s safe to say the public has taken a position on the favorite in this one. 

How To Bet On Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso

Now that we’ve given you all the odds and betting data you need to wager on Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso, let’s dive into the best betting promo available.

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Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.

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