Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Odds: Does Jake Paul Stand a Chance as a Massive Underdog Against Joshua?

One of the most exciting boxing events of the year is now just days away, as Jake Paul and former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua are set to collide Friday night at the Kaseya Center in Miami, live on Netflix. The fight was officially announced one month ago today and immediately sent shockwaves through both boxing and mainstream sports. What initially began as Paul’s planned bout with Gervonta “Tank” Davis unraveled due to legal complications, opening the door for a matchup that few believed was even possible. Now, with fight night approaching, the spectacle is finally about to become reality.

Anthony Joshua enters as a massive favorite, currently priced at -1300, while Paul sits at +700 after seeing his odds tighten slightly from last month’s opening numbers. Joshua brings a 28-4 professional record with 25 knockouts and years of championship level experience. Paul, now 12-1, has built his boxing résumé largely by targeting former stars well past their primes. His most recent win came against a 39-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, who was fighting for the first time in years. Before that, Paul faced Mike Tyson, who was 58 years old and dealing with serious health concerns. This matchup breaks that pattern entirely, making it the most legitimate and refreshing challenge of Paul’s career.

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Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, December 19, 2025
• Time: 10:30 PM ET (Estimated Ring Walks)
• Where to Watch: Netflix

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Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Odds

• Moneyline: Jake Paul (+700), Anthony Joshua (-1300)

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Odds Breakdown

The betting market continues to reflect just how steep the challenge is for Paul. Joshua’s -1300 price tag is still one of the heaviest favorite lines of his career, even after drifting slightly from last month. For the first time, Paul is stepping in against a boxer who is not only a former champion, but also still physically capable of delivering elite level power and pressure. The strategic matchmaking advantage Paul has relied on in the influencer boxing era is gone here.

Joshua’s résumé dwarfs anything Paul has faced. With 25 knockouts in 28 wins, Joshua has proven fight ending power, and even in defeat has remained competitive against the best heavyweights in the world. Paul’s lone loss to Tommy Fury remains the clearest comparison point, and that fight exposed issues with footwork, defense, and adaptability against a technically sound boxer. Those flaws are far more dangerous against a much larger heavyweight with championship experience.

The physical mismatch is another major concern. Joshua’s height, reach, and strength represent a level of pressure Paul has never encountered. Success against older or smaller opponents does not translate cleanly to facing a prime era heavyweight who can control distance and punish mistakes. While Joshua has gone 6-4 over his last 10 fights, those losses came against elite competition. Paul has never faced that caliber of opponent or danger.

Still, combat sports always leave room for unpredictability. Paul has legitimate power, strong conditioning, and has shown a commitment to improving as a boxer. That said, the gap in experience, skill, and proven performance at the highest level remains enormous. With the fight now just two days away in Miami, the odds reflect a clear reality. Paul is climbing a mountain, and it will take the best performance of his career just to make this competitive.

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