Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Odds: Odds Give Edwards 81.5% Chance to Win

No one is giving Nate Diaz much of a chance to beat Leon Edwards at UFC 262
Brian Good
Sun, May 2, 1:22 PM EDT

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Odds: Odds Give Edwards 81.5% Chance to Win

Nate Diaz, one of the most popular fighters in the entire UFC, has been absent from the octagon for quite some time. As a matter of fact, the last time he had a professional fight he was in a slugfest with Jorge Masvidal as Masvidal defeated him for the BMF championship in 2019.

It’s been 18 months since we last saw Nate Diaz fight but that streak comes to an end when Diaz takes on Leon Edwards in the UFC 262 main event on May 15, Edwards vs. Diaz.

Nate Diaz is not a world class UFC fighter. He’s 20-12 in 32 professional fights and despite high-profile opponents, he’s never been a UFC Champion. But, Nate Diaz is one of the most exciting and real fighters in the entire company.

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Diaz comes in having lost five of his last nine fights, which date all the way back to 2012. But, he has wins over Conor McGregor and Anthony Pettis in that same span.

Edwards in on a different path from the journeyman Diaz. Leon Edwards’ last loss came back in 2015 at the hands of current welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. At 29, Edwards is a promising fighter within the UFC and beating Nate Diaz could be the next step toward a potential rematch with Usman down the road.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Odds

Casual fight fans may be surprised since Nate Diaz is the much more known name in Edwards vs. Diaz. But, oddsmakers have spoken and Edwards vs. Diaz odds give the distinct advantage to Leon Edwards.

A little under 2 weeks away from UFC 262, Leon Edwards’ odds to beat Nate Diaz sit at -440, implying an 81.5% chance he wins the co-main event.

As for Diaz, the books don’t like his chances in Edwards vs. Diaz. His +350 odds imply he has just a 22.2% chance of winning.

Fighter Odds Implied Probability
Nate Diaz +350 81.5%
Leon Edwards -440 22.2%

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Betting

What impact have the lopsided Edwards vs. Diaz odds had on the market? Has the long price in Nate Diaz enticed bettors to back him over Edwards? The short answer is no.

Two weeks away from Edwards vs. Diaz, Leon Edwards has been backed by 57.14% of the public. Not quite the 81.5% like his odds imply, but still a solid majority.

Meanwhile, Diaz has drawn 42.86% of the betting. There’s still a while until Edwards vs. Diaz gets underway, so this could change quite a bit between now and UFC 262. But still, the bettors and oddsmakers have spoken and they like Leon Edwards to defeat Nate Diaz on May 15.

Edwards vs. Diaz Result Public Betting
Nate Diaz Win 57.14%
Leon Edwards Win 42.86%
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