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Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds: 62.22% Of Bets Are Backing Nate Diaz

Can Nate Diaz pull off a massive upset in his return to the octagon? Let's see what the odds say.
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Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds: Oddsmakers Picking Edwards, Bettors Sticking With Diaz

How often do we get a UFC pay-per-view with two title fights on the card and they still aren’t the most anticipated bouts of the night? Well, that very well may be the case for UFC 263, as we’ve seen with the insane action on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.

Nate Diaz may not be the most accomplished fighter. He’s never held a belt but he’s one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, if not THE most popular. Nate Diaz has not fought in the octagon since November on 2019 and Saturday is his big return. So, as you can imagine, all eyes in the betting world are on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.

Diaz is a massive underdog in his first fight back, with odds longer than Logan Paul’s against Floyd Mayweather in some places. But, in true Nate Diaz style, that hasn’t stopped bettors from getting in his corner. Despite overwhelming Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds against him, he’s by far the most popular pick by the betting public.

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds

It was expected that Nate Diaz would be the underdog this weekend at UFC 263. After all, Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half and the last time we saw him was in a loss to Jorge Masvidal. But, I’m not sure people expected to see odds this lopsided.

But, Leon Edwards is considered to be the real deal by a lot of fight fans. Edwards hasn’t lost in over five years, nine straight fights, and the last time he did lose came against arguably the best mixed martial artist on the planet right now, Kamaru Usman.

Still, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds have Diaz as a +450 underdog. Those odds give one of the toughest fighters on the planet just an 18.2% chance of beating Leon Edwards.

Meanwhile, Edwards sits at -500, making a win for him an almost certainty with an implied probability of 83.3%.

It’s a turning point for Leon Edwards. Diaz would be the most legitimate win on his belt. Meanwhile, Nate Diaz is just looking to prove he’s still got it at age 36 with 32 professional fights to his name. Still, +450 odds don’t seem to make sense when Diaz steps into the ring.

FighterUFC 263 OddsImplied Probability
Nate Diaz+45018.2%
Leon Edwards-50083.33$

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Betting

So, with Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds being so far in Edwards’ favor, you may expect Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards betting trends to look the same, but that hasn’t been the case at all. Despite the fact that Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half, bettors can’t wait to show their support.

Even though Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds give him just an 18.2% implied probability, but an insane 62.22% of bets have come in on Diaz to win.

As for Edwards, that 83.3% implied probability according to Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds is much higher than the 37.78% of bets that have come in on him to win.

FighterPublic Betting %
Nate Diaz62.22%
Leon Edwards37.78%

Nate Diaz's Record

Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.

Loss20–12Jorge MasvidalTKO (doctor stoppage)UFC 244November 2, 2019305:00
Win20–11Anthony PettisDecision (unanimous)UFC 241August 17, 2019305:00
Loss19–11Conor McGregorDecision (majority)UFC 202August 20, 2016505:00
Win19–10Conor McGregorSubmission (rear-naked choke)UFC 196March 5, 2016204:12
Win18–10Michael JohnsonDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2December 19, 2015305:00
Loss17–10Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. MiocicDecember 13, 2014305:00
Win17–9Gray MaynardTKO (punches)The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate FinaleNovember 30, 2013102:38
Loss16–9Josh ThomsonTKO (head kick and punches)UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. MelendezApril 20, 2013203:44
Loss16–8Benson HendersonDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. DiazDecember 8, 2012505:00
Win16–7Jim MillerSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. MillerMay 5, 2012204:09
Win15–7Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)UFC 141December 30, 2011305:00
Win14–7Takanori GomiSubmission (armbar)UFC 135September 24, 2011104:27
Loss13–7Rory MacDonaldDecision (unanimous)UFC 129April 30, 2011305:00
Loss13–6Dong Hyun KimDecision (unanimous)UFC 125January 1, 2011305:00
Win13–5Marcus DavisTechnical Submission (guillotine choke)UFC 118August 28, 2010304:02
Win12–5Rory MarkhamTKO (punches)UFC 111March 27, 2010102:47
Loss11–5Gray MaynardDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. DiazJanuary 11, 2010305:00
Win11–4Melvin GuillardSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. GuillardSeptember 16, 2009202:13
Loss10–4Joe StevensonDecision (unanimous)The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom FinaleJune 20, 2009305:00
Loss10–3Clay GuidaDecision (split)UFC 94January 31, 2009305:00
Win10–2Josh NeerDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. NeerSeptember 17, 2008305:00
Win9–2Kurt PellegrinoSubmission (triangle choke)UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. LauzonApril 2, 2008203:06
Win8–2Alvin RobinsonSubmission (triangle choke)UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. BurkmanJanuary 23, 2008103:39
Win7–2Junior AssunçãoSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. FlorianSeptember 19, 2007104:10
Win6–2Manvel GamburyanTKO (shoulder injury)The Ultimate Fighter 5 FinaleJune 23, 2007200:20
Loss5–2Hermes FrançaSubmission (armbar)WEC 24October 12, 2006202:46
Win5–1Dennis DavisSubmission (americana)Warrior Cup 1August 12, 2006102:00
Win4–1Joe HurleySubmission (triangle choke)WEC 21June 15, 2006202:03
Win3–1Gilbert RaelTKO (punches)WEC 20May 5, 2006103:35
Win2–1Tony JuaresTKO (punches)Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. GracieMarch 10, 2006103:23
Loss1–1Koji OishiDecision (unanimous)Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament FinalsAugust 27, 2005305:00
Win1–0Alejandro GarciaSubmission (triangle choke)WEC 12October 21, 2004302:17

Leon Edwards' Record

Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.

NC18–3 (1)Belal MuhammadNC (accidental eye poke)UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad13-Mar-21200:18
Win18–3Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards20-Jul-19505:00
Win17–3Gunnar NelsonDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal16-Mar-19305:00
Win16–3Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards23-Jun-18505:00
Win15–3Peter SobottaTKO (punches)UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov17-Mar-18304:59
Win14–3Bryan BarberenaDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve02-Sep-17305:00
Win13–3Vicente LuqueDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson18-Mar-17305:00
Win12–3Albert TumenovSubmission (rear-naked choke)UFC 20408-Oct-16303:01
Win11–3Dominic WatersDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski08-May-16305:00
Loss10–3Kamaru UsmanDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 219-Dec-15305:00
Win10–2Pawel PawlakDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites18-Jul-15305:00
Win9–2Seth BaczynskiKO (punches)UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 211-Apr-15100:08
Loss8–2Cláudio SilvaDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux08-Nov-14305:00
Win8–1Shaun TaylorKO (punch)BAMMA 1613-Sep-14303:30
Win7–1Wayne MurrieSubmission (rear-naked choke)BAMMA 1505-May-14303:13
Win6–1Wendle LewisKO (punches)BAMMA 1414-Dec-13101:20
Win5–1Adam BoussifSubmission (arm-triangle choke)BAMMA 1313-Sep-13102:10
Win4–1Jonathan BiltonTKO (knees)BAMMA 1101-Dec-12201:11
Win3–1Craig WhiteTechnical DecisionSAH 14: Strength And Honour 1403-Nov-12205:00
Loss2–1Delroy McDowellDQ (illegal knee)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 625-Feb-12302:40
Win2–0Pawel ZwiefkaDecision (unanimous)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 519-Nov-11305:00
Win1–0Damian ZlotnickiTKO (punches)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 405-Jun-11102:15

Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.


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