Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds: Oddsmakers Picking Edwards, Bettors Sticking With Diaz
How often do we get a UFC pay-per-view with two title fights on the card and they still aren’t the most anticipated bouts of the night? Well, that very well may be the case for UFC 263, as we’ve seen with the insane action on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.
Nate Diaz may not be the most accomplished fighter. He’s never held a belt but he’s one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, if not THE most popular. Nate Diaz has not fought in the octagon since November on 2019 and Saturday is his big return. So, as you can imagine, all eyes in the betting world are on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.
Diaz is a massive underdog in his first fight back, with odds longer than Logan Paul’s against Floyd Mayweather in some places. But, in true Nate Diaz style, that hasn’t stopped bettors from getting in his corner. Despite overwhelming Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds against him, he’s by far the most popular pick by the betting public.
It was expected that Nate Diaz would be the underdog this weekend at UFC 263. After all, Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half and the last time we saw him was in a loss to Jorge Masvidal. But, I’m not sure people expected to see odds this lopsided.
But, Leon Edwards is considered to be the real deal by a lot of fight fans. Edwards hasn’t lost in over five years, nine straight fights, and the last time he did lose came against arguably the best mixed martial artist on the planet right now, Kamaru Usman.
Still, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds have Diaz as a +450 underdog. Those odds give one of the toughest fighters on the planet just an 18.2% chance of beating Leon Edwards.
Meanwhile, Edwards sits at -500, making a win for him an almost certainty with an implied probability of 83.3%.
It’s a turning point for Leon Edwards. Diaz would be the most legitimate win on his belt. Meanwhile, Nate Diaz is just looking to prove he’s still got it at age 36 with 32 professional fights to his name. Still, +450 odds don’t seem to make sense when Diaz steps into the ring.
|Fighter||UFC 263 Odds||Implied Probability|
Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Betting
So, with Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds being so far in Edwards’ favor, you may expect Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards betting trends to look the same, but that hasn’t been the case at all. Despite the fact that Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half, bettors can’t wait to show their support.
Even though Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds give him just an 18.2% implied probability, but an insane 62.22% of bets have come in on Diaz to win.
As for Edwards, that 83.3% implied probability according to Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds is much higher than the 37.78% of bets that have come in on him to win.
|Fighter||Public Betting %|
Nate Diaz's Record
Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.
|Loss||20–12||Jorge Masvidal||TKO (doctor stoppage)||UFC 244||November 2, 2019||3||05:00|
|Win||20–11||Anthony Pettis||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 241||August 17, 2019||3||05:00|
|Loss||19–11||Conor McGregor||Decision (majority)||UFC 202||August 20, 2016||5||05:00|
|Win||19–10||Conor McGregor||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UFC 196||March 5, 2016||2||04:12|
|Win||18–10||Michael Johnson||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2||December 19, 2015||3||05:00|
|Loss||17–10||Rafael dos Anjos||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. Miocic||December 13, 2014||3||05:00|
|Win||17–9||Gray Maynard||TKO (punches)||The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale||November 30, 2013||1||02:38|
|Loss||16–9||Josh Thomson||TKO (head kick and punches)||UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Melendez||April 20, 2013||2||03:44|
|Loss||16–8||Benson Henderson||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Diaz||December 8, 2012||5||05:00|
|Win||16–7||Jim Miller||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller||May 5, 2012||2||04:09|
|Win||15–7||Donald Cerrone||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 141||December 30, 2011||3||05:00|
|Win||14–7||Takanori Gomi||Submission (armbar)||UFC 135||September 24, 2011||1||04:27|
|Loss||13–7||Rory MacDonald||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 129||April 30, 2011||3||05:00|
|Loss||13–6||Dong Hyun Kim||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 125||January 1, 2011||3||05:00|
|Win||13–5||Marcus Davis||Technical Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC 118||August 28, 2010||3||04:02|
|Win||12–5||Rory Markham||TKO (punches)||UFC 111||March 27, 2010||1||02:47|
|Loss||11–5||Gray Maynard||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. Diaz||January 11, 2010||3||05:00|
|Win||11–4||Melvin Guillard||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard||September 16, 2009||2||02:13|
|Loss||10–4||Joe Stevenson||Decision (unanimous)||The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale||June 20, 2009||3||05:00|
|Loss||10–3||Clay Guida||Decision (split)||UFC 94||January 31, 2009||3||05:00|
|Win||10–2||Josh Neer||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer||September 17, 2008||3||05:00|
|Win||9–2||Kurt Pellegrino||Submission (triangle choke)||UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon||April 2, 2008||2||03:06|
|Win||8–2||Alvin Robinson||Submission (triangle choke)||UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. Burkman||January 23, 2008||1||03:39|
|Win||7–2||Junior Assunção||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. Florian||September 19, 2007||1||04:10|
|Win||6–2||Manvel Gamburyan||TKO (shoulder injury)||The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale||June 23, 2007||2||00:20|
|Loss||5–2||Hermes França||Submission (armbar)||WEC 24||October 12, 2006||2||02:46|
|Win||5–1||Dennis Davis||Submission (americana)||Warrior Cup 1||August 12, 2006||1||02:00|
|Win||4–1||Joe Hurley||Submission (triangle choke)||WEC 21||June 15, 2006||2||02:03|
|Win||3–1||Gilbert Rael||TKO (punches)||WEC 20||May 5, 2006||1||03:35|
|Win||2–1||Tony Juares||TKO (punches)||Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Gracie||March 10, 2006||1||03:23|
|Loss||1–1||Koji Oishi||Decision (unanimous)||Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament Finals||August 27, 2005||3||05:00|
|Win||1–0||Alejandro Garcia||Submission (triangle choke)||WEC 12||October 21, 2004||3||02:17|
Leon Edwards' Record
Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.
|NC||18–3 (1)||Belal Muhammad||NC (accidental eye poke)||UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad||13-Mar-21||2||00:18|
|Win||18–3||Rafael dos Anjos||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards||20-Jul-19||5||05:00|
|Win||17–3||Gunnar Nelson||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal||16-Mar-19||3||05:00|
|Win||16–3||Donald Cerrone||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards||23-Jun-18||5||05:00|
|Win||15–3||Peter Sobotta||TKO (punches)||UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov||17-Mar-18||3||04:59|
|Win||14–3||Bryan Barberena||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve||02-Sep-17||3||05:00|
|Win||13–3||Vicente Luque||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson||18-Mar-17||3||05:00|
|Win||12–3||Albert Tumenov||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UFC 204||08-Oct-16||3||03:01|
|Win||11–3||Dominic Waters||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski||08-May-16||3||05:00|
|Loss||10–3||Kamaru Usman||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2||19-Dec-15||3||05:00|
|Win||10–2||Pawel Pawlak||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites||18-Jul-15||3||05:00|
|Win||9–2||Seth Baczynski||KO (punches)||UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2||11-Apr-15||1||00:08|
|Loss||8–2||Cláudio Silva||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux||08-Nov-14||3||05:00|
|Win||8–1||Shaun Taylor||KO (punch)||BAMMA 16||13-Sep-14||3||03:30|
|Win||7–1||Wayne Murrie||Submission (rear-naked choke)||BAMMA 15||05-May-14||3||03:13|
|Win||6–1||Wendle Lewis||KO (punches)||BAMMA 14||14-Dec-13||1||01:20|
|Win||5–1||Adam Boussif||Submission (arm-triangle choke)||BAMMA 13||13-Sep-13||1||02:10|
|Win||4–1||Jonathan Bilton||TKO (knees)||BAMMA 11||01-Dec-12||2||01:11|
|Win||3–1||Craig White||Technical Decision||SAH 14: Strength And Honour 14||03-Nov-12||2||05:00|
|Loss||2–1||Delroy McDowell||DQ (illegal knee)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 6||25-Feb-12||3||02:40|
|Win||2–0||Pawel Zwiefka||Decision (unanimous)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 5||19-Nov-11||3||05:00|
|Win||1–0||Damian Zlotnicki||TKO (punches)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 4||05-Jun-11||1||02:15|