Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds: 62.22% Of Bets Are Backing Nate Diaz

Can Nate Diaz pull off a massive upset in his return to the octagon? Let's see what the odds say.
Brian Good
Wed, June 9, 1:46 PM EDT

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds: Oddsmakers Picking Edwards, Bettors Sticking With Diaz

How often do we get a UFC pay-per-view with two title fights on the card and they still aren’t the most anticipated bouts of the night? Well, that very well may be the case for UFC 263, as we’ve seen with the insane action on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.

Nate Diaz may not be the most accomplished fighter. He’s never held a belt but he’s one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, if not THE most popular. Nate Diaz has not fought in the octagon since November on 2019 and Saturday is his big return. So, as you can imagine, all eyes in the betting world are on Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds.

Diaz is a massive underdog in his first fight back, with odds longer than Logan Paul’s against Floyd Mayweather in some places. But, in true Nate Diaz style, that hasn’t stopped bettors from getting in his corner. Despite overwhelming Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds against him, he’s by far the most popular pick by the betting public.

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Odds

It was expected that Nate Diaz would be the underdog this weekend at UFC 263. After all, Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half and the last time we saw him was in a loss to Jorge Masvidal. But, I’m not sure people expected to see odds this lopsided.

But, Leon Edwards is considered to be the real deal by a lot of fight fans. Edwards hasn’t lost in over five years, nine straight fights, and the last time he did lose came against arguably the best mixed martial artist on the planet right now, Kamaru Usman.

Still, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds have Diaz as a +450 underdog. Those odds give one of the toughest fighters on the planet just an 18.2% chance of beating Leon Edwards.

Meanwhile, Edwards sits at -500, making a win for him an almost certainty with an implied probability of 83.3%.

It’s a turning point for Leon Edwards. Diaz would be the most legitimate win on his belt. Meanwhile, Nate Diaz is just looking to prove he’s still got it at age 36 with 32 professional fights to his name. Still, +450 odds don’t seem to make sense when Diaz steps into the ring.

Fighter UFC 263 Odds Implied Probability
Nate Diaz +450 18.2%
Leon Edwards -500 83.33$

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Betting

So, with Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds being so far in Edwards’ favor, you may expect Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards betting trends to look the same, but that hasn’t been the case at all. Despite the fact that Diaz hasn’t fought in a year and a half, bettors can’t wait to show their support.

Even though Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds give him just an 18.2% implied probability, but an insane 62.22% of bets have come in on Diaz to win.

As for Edwards, that 83.3% implied probability according to Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds is much higher than the 37.78% of bets that have come in on him to win.

Fighter Public Betting %
Nate Diaz 62.22%
Leon Edwards 37.78%

Nate Diaz's Record

Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
Loss 20–12 Jorge Masvidal TKO (doctor stoppage) UFC 244 November 2, 2019 3 05:00
Win 20–11 Anthony Pettis Decision (unanimous) UFC 241 August 17, 2019 3 05:00
Loss 19–11 Conor McGregor Decision (majority) UFC 202 August 20, 2016 5 05:00
Win 19–10 Conor McGregor Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 196 March 5, 2016 2 04:12
Win 18–10 Michael Johnson Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 December 19, 2015 3 05:00
Loss 17–10 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. Miocic December 13, 2014 3 05:00
Win 17–9 Gray Maynard TKO (punches) The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale November 30, 2013 1 02:38
Loss 16–9 Josh Thomson TKO (head kick and punches) UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Melendez April 20, 2013 2 03:44
Loss 16–8 Benson Henderson Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Diaz December 8, 2012 5 05:00
Win 16–7 Jim Miller Submission (guillotine choke) UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller May 5, 2012 2 04:09
Win 15–7 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) UFC 141 December 30, 2011 3 05:00
Win 14–7 Takanori Gomi Submission (armbar) UFC 135 September 24, 2011 1 04:27
Loss 13–7 Rory MacDonald Decision (unanimous) UFC 129 April 30, 2011 3 05:00
Loss 13–6 Dong Hyun Kim Decision (unanimous) UFC 125 January 1, 2011 3 05:00
Win 13–5 Marcus Davis Technical Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 118 August 28, 2010 3 04:02
Win 12–5 Rory Markham TKO (punches) UFC 111 March 27, 2010 1 02:47
Loss 11–5 Gray Maynard Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. Diaz January 11, 2010 3 05:00
Win 11–4 Melvin Guillard Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard September 16, 2009 2 02:13
Loss 10–4 Joe Stevenson Decision (unanimous) The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale June 20, 2009 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Clay Guida Decision (split) UFC 94 January 31, 2009 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Josh Neer Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer September 17, 2008 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Kurt Pellegrino Submission (triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon April 2, 2008 2 03:06
Win 8–2 Alvin Robinson Submission (triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. Burkman January 23, 2008 1 03:39
Win 7–2 Junior Assunção Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. Florian September 19, 2007 1 04:10
Win 6–2 Manvel Gamburyan TKO (shoulder injury) The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale June 23, 2007 2 00:20
Loss 5–2 Hermes França Submission (armbar) WEC 24 October 12, 2006 2 02:46
Win 5–1 Dennis Davis Submission (americana) Warrior Cup 1 August 12, 2006 1 02:00
Win 4–1 Joe Hurley Submission (triangle choke) WEC 21 June 15, 2006 2 02:03
Win 3–1 Gilbert Rael TKO (punches) WEC 20 May 5, 2006 1 03:35
Win 2–1 Tony Juares TKO (punches) Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Gracie March 10, 2006 1 03:23
Loss 1–1 Koji Oishi Decision (unanimous) Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament Finals August 27, 2005 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Alejandro Garcia Submission (triangle choke) WEC 12 October 21, 2004 3 02:17

Leon Edwards' Record

Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
NC 18–3 (1) Belal Muhammad NC (accidental eye poke) UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad 13-Mar-21 2 00:18
Win 18–3 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards 20-Jul-19 5 05:00
Win 17–3 Gunnar Nelson Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal 16-Mar-19 3 05:00
Win 16–3 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards 23-Jun-18 5 05:00
Win 15–3 Peter Sobotta TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov 17-Mar-18 3 04:59
Win 14–3 Bryan Barberena Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve 02-Sep-17 3 05:00
Win 13–3 Vicente Luque Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson 18-Mar-17 3 05:00
Win 12–3 Albert Tumenov Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 204 08-Oct-16 3 03:01
Win 11–3 Dominic Waters Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski 08-May-16 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Kamaru Usman Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 19-Dec-15 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Pawel Pawlak Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites 18-Jul-15 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Seth Baczynski KO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 11-Apr-15 1 00:08
Loss 8–2 Cláudio Silva Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux 08-Nov-14 3 05:00
Win 8–1 Shaun Taylor KO (punch) BAMMA 16 13-Sep-14 3 03:30
Win 7–1 Wayne Murrie Submission (rear-naked choke) BAMMA 15 05-May-14 3 03:13
Win 6–1 Wendle Lewis KO (punches) BAMMA 14 14-Dec-13 1 01:20
Win 5–1 Adam Boussif Submission (arm-triangle choke) BAMMA 13 13-Sep-13 1 02:10
Win 4–1 Jonathan Bilton TKO (knees) BAMMA 11 01-Dec-12 2 01:11
Win 3–1 Craig White Technical Decision SAH 14: Strength And Honour 14 03-Nov-12 2 05:00
Loss 2–1 Delroy McDowell DQ (illegal knee) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 6 25-Feb-12 3 02:40
Win 2–0 Pawel Zwiefka Decision (unanimous) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 5 19-Nov-11 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Damian Zlotnicki TKO (punches) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 4 05-Jun-11 1 02:15

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