Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Odds: Usman Heavily Favored in Rematch

Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington are set for their rematch and oddsmakers and bettors are both backing Usman to win
Brian Good
Tue, July 27, 8:05 AM EDT

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Odds: Usman Heavily Favored in Rematch

Sometimes, prior to big UFC fights, the two fighters try to fake some sort of animosity toward each other to drum up outside interest in the fight. However, when it comes to Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington, there’s nothing fake about their hatred for each other.

That’s why there are so many people paying attention to Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds following the UFC’s announcement yesterday that these two fighters would be meeting in the octagon again, likely at UFC 268. Not only are they two of the very best in the sport, but they despise one another.

The first time Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington ever fought came back in 2019 and featured a back-and-forth slugfest with Usman coming out on top. Usman was the better striker and grappler and finished Covington via TKO in the fifth and final round to retain his welterweight title.

So, it makes sense that Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds this time around have Usman as the heavy favorite and Covington on the outside looking in.

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Kamaru Usman

There isn’t a single thing that Kamaru Usman can’t do at an elite level inside the octagon. He’s quick, powerful and smart. He’s a world class wrestler and grappler and he has some of the best hands in the world, just ask Jorge Masvidal.

The last and only time Usman lost came in his second ever professional MMA fight via submission in 2013. Since then, Usman is on an amazing 18-fight win streak, including a 14-fight win streak in the UFC.

Kamaru Usman’s background is in wrestling as a NCAA Division II national champion. Still, he has some of the best striking in the world as Covington found out the hard way the first time these two met.

At one point, fans considered Kamaru Usman a boring fighter after his first fight with Jorge Masvidal went the distance with very little action. But that time has passed. Usman has finished his last two fights in spectacular fashion, including an absolutely devastating knockout of Masvidal, who hadn’t been knocked out since 2008, when the two met in a rematch.

Colby Covington

Colby Covington is the loud-mouthed, in-your-face challenger to Kamaru Usman’s soft-spoken, polished reign as champion. Covingtong, who was seen prancing around in a MAGA hat throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, often seems like he says things for shock value, but he also backs it up.

Covington’s only loss inside the octagon since 2015 has come at the hands of Usman when they met for the first time. Since then he’s fought just once, but he demolished Tyron Woodley in that fight and earned himself another shot at the belt.

Many assumed that Leon Edwards, fresh off his defeat of Nate Diaz, would get the next shot at Usman, but the UFC decided they’d rather see Covington get another chance.

Covington is a good striker, but there doen’t seem to be a lot of power behind those punches. In 13 UFC fights, he’s won by TKO/KO just three times. He was connecting well with Usman in their first fight, but Usman just kept moving forward and taking it until he finished the fight.

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Odds

So, now that we know the background, what do Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds look like this time around? Well, it’s not looking good for the challenger, Colby Covington.

Despite the fact that Covington has just two losses in his UFC career and put up a good fight the first time around, the latest Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds have Covington at +220. Those +220 odds imply just a 31.3% chance that Colby Covington can beat Kamaru Usman and win the welterweight title.

As for Usman, he’s favored once again, as he has been for every single one of his professional fights with the lone exception being his first ever title shot against Tyron Woodley. The first time around, Usman opened up as a -200 favorite against Covington. This time, the latest Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds have Usman at -240, implying a 70.6% chance he keeps his win streak alive.

Fighter Odds Implied Probability
Kamaru Usman -240 70.6%
Colby Covington +220 31.3%

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Betting

So, we know that the most recent Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds favor Usman, but what does the betting public think? Well, they’re pretty much aligned with the oddsmakers.

Covington is not a wildly popular fighter. And while Usman will never be considered at the Nate Diaz-Conor McGregor the fans recognize when they’re seeing greatness, as they are with Usman.

So, with Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington odds becoming official last night, the Usman vs. Covington betting began to pick up steam.

68.92% of all bets since the Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington markets opened have come in on Usman to win. Just 31.08% of bets have backed Covington.

Fighter Public Betting %
Kamaru Usman 68.92%
Colby Covington 31.08%
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