UCF vs. SMU Public Betting: 60% of Public Money on UCF to Cover the Spread
UCF vs. SMU Public Betting: 60% of Public Money on UCF to Cover the Spread
If you're looking to find out where the public is betting when it comes to tonight's UCF vs. SMU game, you've come to the right place.
A popular betting strategy for sports bettors is to fade the public. That is to find out where the public betting numbers are sitting for a game and bet the opposite side of the majority. Well, when it comes to tonight's UCF vs. SMU game, the public money is backing the Golden Knights.
SMU has been in the college football news a lot this past week, and not for anything positive. After starting the season with a disappointing 2-2, it was announced that a group of their players would be refusing to play the rest of the season and entering the transfer portal. Only playing in four games before doing so allows them to maintain their redshirt for this season and not lose a year of eligibility.
It's impossible to know how much that impacted this week's college football odds or the UFC vs. SMU public betting numbers, but it would be hard to argue that it doesn't have some effect on the public money being so heavily on UCF. Still, there is reason to argue that you should be betting on SMU to cover the spread tonight.
Let's take a look at the public betting for tonight's game to try and find a sharp play to kick off this week's college football picks.
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UCF vs. SMU Public Betting
| Team | Point Spread | Public Money | Public Betting % |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | -3 | 60% | 71% |
| SMU | +3 | 40% | 29% |
As you can see from the numbers above, provided by our friends at DraftKings, the public betting numbers are clearly in favor of UCF covering the spread, which sits at UCF -3.
But, if you dig a little deeper you see a different picture when it comes to the public money on this game and where you should be betting.
In general, fading the public is a pretty strong play. Betting against the majority of people can often turn a pretty good profit. But, it's an even stronger play when it appears that "sharp money" is backing the team with fewer bets on it.
SMU has just 29% of bets on it to cover, but a whopping 40% of money is backing them. That's an 11% difference, implying that big bettors, or sharps, are on Mustangs tonight.
It may be time to fade the public betting and follow the sharps. Hammer SMU +3 on Wednesday.