Big 12 Championship Scenarios: What do Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado Need to Happen?

Who is going to play in the Big 12 Championship game on December 7, 2024, at noon ET in Arlington, Texas? That is the million-dollar question right now as we have a whopping SEVEN teams that are still mathematically alive to play for a conference title game.

In reality, it likely comes down to Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado. All four of those teams sit atop the conference with a 6-2 record. More importantly, there is a College Football Playoff spot on the line as the five highest-rated conference champs make it to the 12-team playoff automatically.

So, what exactly needs to happen for your favorite team to make the Big 12 Championship? What different scenarios could play out? What does this mean for the College Football Playoff? We cover all that and more in our Big 12 breakdown.

Big 12 Championship Odds

Big 12 Championship Scenarios

Arizona State

• Week 14 Opponent: @ Arizona
• Date: Saturday, November 30
• Time: 3:30 pm ET

Big 12 Championship Game Scenario

Everything Arizona State has been playing for all season is right in front of them, all they need to do is beat in-state rival Arizona and they lock up a spot in the Big 12 title game and a chance to play in the College Football Playoff. However, that may be easier said than done. ASU hasn't taken down Arizona since 2021 and is 44-51-1 all-time against the Wildcats. What's somewhat humorous, as long as you're not an Arizona fan, is that this was supposed to be the year Arizona made a run. The offense is uber-talented, led by Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, but they've just never put it together. None of that matters for the Sun Devils. The fact remains that all they need to do is win and they'll be in the Big 12 Championship.

BYU

• Week 14 Opponent: vs Houston
• Date: Saturday, November 30
• Time: 10:15 pm ET

Big 12 Championship Game Scenario

Unfortunately for BYU, they no longer control their own destiny when it comes to the Big 12 Championship game. Back-to-back losses to Kansas and Arizona State have seen a once unbeaten season crumble to a battle for the conference title. However, BYU has one of the easiest Week 14 opponents in 4-7 Houston. If all four teams win, it's Arizona vs. Iowa State in the title game, but I happen to think that Kansas State is going to give the Cyclones some issues come Saturday night in Aimes. BYU needs either Arizona State or Iowa State to lose. If that happens, they lock in a Big 12 Championship Game appearance with a win.

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Iowa State

• Week 14 Opponent: vs. Kansas State
• Date: Saturday, November 30
• Time: 7:30 pm ET

Big 12 Championship Game Scenario

Iowa State officially controls its destiny. A win over Kansas State on Saturday means they lock in one of the spots in Arlington on December 7. However, a loss doesn't do them in either. Outside of Arizona State, Iowa State is in the best position. The issue is that they play an extremely talented Kansas State team to wrap up the season. Kansas State has already beaten Colorado this season and will look to take down another top Big 12 team. Technically, Kansas State can still make the conference title game themselves, but they'd need to win and then see two more of the teams on this list lose as well.

Colorado

• Week 14 Opponent: vs. Oklahoma State
• Date: Friday, November 29
• Time: Noon ET

Big 12 Championship Game Scenario

Colorado is on the outside looking in when it comes to the 6-2 teams in the Big 12. However, they still have a relatively good shot at sneaking into the Big 12 title game. If they take care of Oklahoma State on Friday, they need two of the three other teams on this list to lose in order to play in Arlington. Arizona State is playing a rival in Arizona, BYU has dropped back-to-back games already and Iowa State is in a toss-up with Kansas State. It wouldn't totally surprise me if we saw one of the current 5-3 Big 12 teams taking on Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and the rest of the Colorado team int he Big 12 Championship.