Florida Next Head Coach Odds: Will Lane Kiffin Really Leave Ole Miss For Gators After Billy Napier Fired?

Florida really wants Lane Kiffin. But does Kiffin want Florida back? It will be tough to convince him. The Florida Gators fired Billy Napier on Sunday morning, with the embattled coach finish up his almost four-year tenure with a measley 22-23 record. He was the first Florida coach to end with a losing record since the 1940's, and ended up 12-16 in the SEC.

The Gators are now 3-4 and enter a bye week ahead of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" against the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs on November 1st. It's unlikely that Florida will have an idea about their next head coach before then, but will continue on with interim coach Billy Gonzales who will run into ranked opponents in three of his first four games at the helm.

In the meantime, AD Scott Stricklin will begin the far-ranging head coaching search, and has vowed to "hire an elite head coach that will embody the standards at the University of Florida". There's no one on the list more elite than Lane Kiffin, who's 50-19 since revamping the Ole Miss Rebels in the last six seasons. But Kiffin's very public life is centered in Oxford, and it would take an obscene amount of money for him to leave. Let's take a look at the Gators' chances of landing Kiffin and others in this next Florida head coach odds update.

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Florida Next Head Coach Odds

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Lane Kiffin +200 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Lane Kiffin is the crown jewel in this Florida coaching search. It really comes down to if they can woo him away from Ole Miss. Kiffin has been in Oxford for six seasons, winning over 72% of his games and notching 27 victories in his last 32 games over the last 2.5 seasons, the exact same as Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri.

In the past, this Florida job would be heavily coveted over programs like Missouri and Ole Miss, but NIL has changed the game since then. Both Kiffin and Drinkwitz are clearing over $10 million with bonuses at the end of the year, and it would take a record-setting bag to lure them away. Kirby Smart currently leads the highest paid coaching list, making over $13 million a year at Georgia, but has earned it with National Championship success. Ryan Day is behind him at $12 million, also a recent champion. The most similar case would be Indiana extending Curt Cignetti for $11.6 million last week, and a similar extension may be coming at Ole Miss.

Kiffin was recently the subject of an ESPN documentary, "The Many Lives of Lane Kiffin" as part of the E60 series. He has already jumped around the country for coaching jobs with his young family, and at times it tore them apart. He was named the youngest head coach at Tennessee before jumping ship to the Raiders after one season in a dramatic exit. Following a tumultuous time in Oakland, Kiffin fled back to USC, and took the team to a No. 1 ranking. He was later famously fired on the tarmac at LAX in the middle of the night in 2013 after a loss. Kiffin then rehabbed his career at Alabama under Nick Saban, and then grabbed the Florida Atlantic job in the mid 2010s. His brief success there helped him get back into the SEC at Ole Miss, and the trajectory has continued to rise for the 50-year-old.

Kiffin's daughter, Landry, is a student and social-media sensation at Ole Miss, and his son is a budding quarterback at a local Oxford high school. He also reconciled with wife Layla, who moved to the area years after their 2016 divorce. The head coach has gotten sober, partakes in hot yoga, and has built a strong community in Oxford as the Rebels continue to win on the field. Does Lane Kiffin have a flair for the dramatic? Sure. But for him to uproot all of the progress he's made in his personal life for an extra million or two in Gainesville doesn't make a lot of sense. Ole Miss is also actively trying to extend him with Athletic Director Keith Carter publicly addressing the rumors.

All this to say, the +200 odds are somewhat unrealistic for Florida fans here. A 33.3% chance that Kiffin goes to Florida? That number is probably a lot lower in reality. He has playoff intentions at Ole Miss this year despite picking up the first loss of the season to Georgia last weekend. Ole Miss takes on Oklahoma on the road this week as a +3 underdog, but even with a loss, they have four easy games to end the season and should coast into the 12-team field behind Trinidad Chambliss and the high-powered Rebels offense. Florida should probably start looking elsewhere if they want to get a jump on the best candidates.

Jeff Brohm +300 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The Louisville head coach is on fire right now, taking down No. 2 Miami last week on Friday night in a road upset. The Cardinals are 5-1 with only an OT loss on the resume, and ranked 19th in the country. Brohm, now in his third-year at Louisville, is becoming a major candidate for the open coaching jobs across the country. He's experienced success at every stop, starting at Western Kentucky and continuing at Purdue as he made the Boilermakers a contender for six seasons. The Cardinals have an easy schedule down the stretch, and could find themselves in the ACC Championship game (+500 to win) if they can get past mediocre Clemson and SMU teams.

James Franklin +400 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

James Franklin appeared on ESPN's College Gameday from Athens this week in the first interview since getting fired by Penn State. In a whirlwind of a month, Franklin saw his Nittany Lions team crash from No. 2 in the country to unemployed as coach after three straight losses. He stated that he wants to coach again, and will be a top candidate at many programs after 12 years of returning the Penn State program to prominence.

Florida may not like seeing his 4-21 record against top-10 teams though, with the majority of SEC games getting billed as ranked matchups in the stacked conference. It may have gotten him 10-2 seasons at Penn State, but he'll have to rise to the occasion down south. Franklin previously coached at Vanderbilt and helped rebuild their program, but the bar was very low in Nashville. He was 11-13 in SEC play there, not dissimilar to Billy Napier's record. But the resources have changed drastically in the last decade, and he would have some of the best talent in Gainesville. Franklin is not a bad option if Florida can't get Kiffin, but he may be a better fit for something like the Arkansas job.

Eli Drinkwitz +500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Eli Drinkwitz is a bit of a dark horse for this job, with both Penn State and Florida intrigued by the Missouri head coach. Drink has the Tigers playing well at 6-1, taking down Auburn in double overtime over the weekend. He now has a top-15 battle against the No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores and Diego Pavia this week in Nashville. Another win would only bolster his stock, but like Kiffin, does he want to leave?

Drinkwitz is already making $9 million a year and was recently extended over the summer. The Tigers are upgrading the football facilities with a massive stadium renovation of $250 million. Everything seems to be cooking for Drinkwitz in Columbia, adding 5-star recruits after winning 27 of the last 32 games, one of the best marks in college football. It would take a massive offer from Florida to poach away another SEC coach.

Urban Meyer +700 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The odds of Urban Meyer coming out of retirement are slim, though this is probably one of the only jobs he would take if he did. At +700, that's a 12.5% chance, but Meyer himself would probably put it closer to 1%. Meyer has a cushy analyst job at FOX Sports, and at 61 years old, he probably doesn't want to endure the stress of the NIL world in college football.

Meyer last coached in 2021, going 2-11 with the Jacksonville Jaguars before getting fired mid season among some controversies. It was a disastrous tenure, and the legendary coach had much more success in the college ranks. He left Florida in 2010 after two National Championships, a Heisman winner in Tim Tebow, and massive success in elevating the program. He later joined Ohio State and returned the Buckeyes to a juggernaut as well.

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