Penn State Next Head Coach Odds: James Madison's Bob Chesney New Favorite, Kalen DeBoer Longshot Scenario
As the SEC coaching drama drags on, Penn State is on the outside looking in, trying to find the best remaining candidates. Who will they bring in to replace James Franklin? Peter Alexis analyzes the likely Penn State scenarios as of November 24th in the final week of the regular season.
Peter Alexis - November 24, 2025, 3:30 PM EST
6 Minute ReadPenn State Next Head Coach Odds: Is PSU Targeting JMU's Chesney, or Hoping for Unlikely DeBoer Chance?
Penn State entered the coaching carousel earlier than almost anyone in the country, firing James Franklin back in early October with the goal of getting ahead of the field. Instead, the opposite happened. A tidal wave of SEC firings soon flooded the market as LSU, Florida, and Auburn all opened at once, immediately overshadowing Penn State and tightening the pool of elite candidates. With so many heavy hitters chasing the same coaches, the Nittany Lions have struggled to maintain leverage despite the program’s strong history, passionate fanbase, and massive resources.
There is still optimism in Happy Valley after two straight wins under interim head coach Terry Smith, including a dominant home performance against Nebraska and an impressive road win over Michigan State. Those results have given the fanbase a momentary boost of confidence in the direction of the roster. However, the season as a whole still falls far short of expectations for a team that opened as the second ranked team in the nation. Even with bowl eligibility still in reach, nobody believes Penn State can afford to settle during its most important coaching search in more than a decade.
The school is reportedly interviewing Smith for the full time job this week, but significant doubts remain about whether he fits the long term vision for a program that expects double digit wins annually. At the same time, the Lane Kiffin saga across the SEC has impacted every major opening and introduced more uncertainty into the Penn State search. The board has finally started to reshape itself heading into rivalry weekend, and three names now dominate the discussion: Bob Chesney, Eli Drinkwitz, and the wild card scenario involving Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer.
Bet on Penn State's Next Coach with Kalshi Here
Penn State Next Head Coach Odds at Kalshi
Coach | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Bob Chesney | 35% |
Kalen DeBoer | 18% |
Eli Drinkwitz | 12% |
Brent Key | 11% |
Terry Smith | 11% |
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Penn State Next Head Coach - Bob Chesney Odds
Bob Chesney has climbed the odds board faster than anyone, rising from 7% last week to a commanding 35% chance to become the next Penn State head coach. His trajectory on Kalshi erupted on Thursday and Friday as the shifting Ole Miss and LSU news sent ripple effects across every major search. With James Madison surging into the top 20 and sitting at 10-1 with an undefeated conference record, the national conversation can no longer ignore what Chesney has built in only two seasons in Harrisonburg.
He arrived at JMU after a strong run at Holy Cross and has done nothing but win, posting a 19-5 record while seamlessly extending the program's success after Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. With Indiana now 11-0 under Cignetti, the blueprint for hiring an ascending JMU coach looks as strong as ever. Penn State has taken note. The Nittany Lions may view Chesney as a high upside coach outside the current SEC chaos, someone they can secure before the market spins out of control again.
There is some competition, including reported interest from UCLA, but Penn State offers a significantly stronger job with more resources and deeper long term stability. If the Nittany Lions want to avoid getting dragged into the late stage SEC battles involving LSU, Florida, and potentially even Alabama, Chesney represents the cleanest and most realistic path forward. His rise to the top of the board is not a coincidence. It is the first sign of clarity the Penn State search has had in weeks.
Penn State Next Head Coach - Kalen DeBoer Wildcard Scenario
Kalen DeBoer sits at 18% on Kalshi, but his chances are tied to one of the strangest and most conditional scenarios in the entire coaching market. Alabama fans expect perfection, and while most schools would celebrate a 9-2 season with a top ten ranking, Tuscaloosa operates under different rules. DeBoer already faced backlash after a 9-3 season last year, and now the Crimson Tide once again sit at 9- 2 with a season-defining Iron Bowl ahead. Alabama enters that rivalry game as only a 5.5-point favorite on the road against an Auburn team starting a freshman quarterback. If Alabama loses and finishes 9-3 for the second straight year, the situation could turn toxic very quickly.
In that scenario, a mutual parting of ways becomes more plausible than people might expect. Alabama would immediately pivot toward finding a replacement who can restore its national championship standard. The most obvious target would be Lane Kiffin, who previously served as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator during Alabama’s title years. If Alabama enters the race for Kiffin, they would leapfrog LSU and Florida for his commitment, potentially pushing Kiffin toward Tuscaloosa and creating an unexpected opening at Alabama.
That chain reaction is what brings Penn State into the picture. If DeBoer becomes available during Championship Weekend, Penn State would be one of the best jobs open and a logical landing spot for him to quickly exit the SEC pressure cooker.
Even if Alabama wins, timing complicates everything. Ole Miss plays its Egg Bowl on Friday before Alabama plays the Iron Bowl on Saturday, meaning Kiffin cannot finalize any decision until seeing the full weekend results. A single upset has the potential to scramble the entire market and reshape everyone’s board, including Penn State’s. DeBoer to Happy Valley remains unlikely, but the web of moving parts keeps the odds from dropping any lower.
Other Possible Candidates
Eli Drinkwitz has dropped to 12 percent after peaking above 40 percent earlier in the process. Missouri’s late season struggles combined with increasing skepticism from fanbases about his fit have cooled the momentum. He remains an option but no longer looks like a favorite, especially with Chesney’s rise and the potential fallout from the SEC coaching carousel still looming.
Additionally, Terry Smith is back at 11% to potentially be brought on full-time. He was getting chants in Beaver Stadium from a happy fanbase on Saturday night, but lacks experience to be a likely candidate here. Lastly, Georgia Tech's Brent Key is in the mix at 11%, but also just lost to Pitt and has seen his team's playoff chances crumble in recent weeks.
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