Tulane College Football Playoff Odds: Can Jon Sumrall, Green Wave Make CFP Despite Coach Heading to Florida?
The Tulane Green Wave will have a chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff when they meet the North Texas Mean Green in the AAC Championship. Will Jon Sumrall's team stay focused amid the coaching search distractions? Let's take a look at Tulane's Odds to make the CFP bracket as the season finale approaches.
Peter Alexis - December 5, 2025, 7:45 PM EST
4 Minute ReadTulane College Football Playoff Odds: Green Wave Need AAC Championship Win to Make CFB Over North Texas
The latest College Football Playoff rankings have Tulane just ahead of the North Texas Mean Green, but the oddsmakers have them listed as underdogs against UNT in the AAC Title game on Friday night. At 10-2, the Green Wave sit behind North Texas and James Madison in the AP Poll at 22nd, but they were the only G5 team ranked by the CFP committee last week at No. 24. That early committee respect could play a major role as Tulane enters the final stretch.
The path is straightforward and nearly identical to North Texas: Tulane must win the American Athletic Conference championship to secure the playoff spot. For the second year in a row, that AAC title game will determine the highest ranked Group of 5 team. And with Tulane and North Texas on a collision course, the committee will have a clean head to head result to work with. Last year the Green Wave won this spot behind one of the strongest seasons in program history, and now they face a fierce offensive juggernaut in the Mean Green, who lead the nation in scoring. Every metric suggests the winner of that matchup gets the 12 seed.
A lot of this season’s narrative has centered around head coach Jon Sumrall, who took the Florida coaching job earlier this week, yet is still coaching this game. This looming coaching shuffle adds an unpredictable layer to Tulane’s playoff pursuit. The week leading into the AAC Championship could be full of leaks, interviews, and distractions, and it’s possible that one or both coaches in this matchup will be negotiating departures before the biggest game of their season.
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Tulane College Football Playoff Odds
Tulane College Football Playoff Odds & Scenarios Breakdown
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff brings additional intrigue. After transferring from BYU last year, he arrives in almost the same position he was in with the Cougars. That BYU team was one game away from the playoff before slipping late, and Retzlaff has carried that experience into his new role. He has guided Tulane into the top tier of G5 programs again and understands the pressure of needing perfection down the stretch. With Tulane expected to cruise past Charlotte on Friday, the Green Wave will aim to enter the AAC Championship with momentum and a clean resume.
Tulane is currently +115 to make the playoff, giving them a 46% implied chance and placing them just behind North Texas (-140). The key difference between the two is that Tulane will likely be a slight underdog to UNT in the AAC title game. North Texas sits at -120 to win the conference, while Tulane is +130. Those odds are the primary driver behind Tulane’s playoff pricing, not the committee rankings. If Tulane wins out, the committee will place them ahead of James Madison with little drama, but the Green Wave’s path is blocked unless they take down the top scoring offense in the country.
The odds market also holds space for James Madison at +165, who plays in the Sun Belt Championship at the same time, but Tulane’s playoff outcome is almost entirely based on this one AAC game. A loss to North Texas eliminates them, while a win makes them the likely G5 representative. There is no need for chaos elsewhere and no ranking gamesmanship involved. Tulane has the advantage of committee familiarity, but North Texas has flashed the more explosive offense and carries the slight edge in projections.
As Tulane prepares for the weekend, the mission is the same as North Texas: dominate on Friday, survive the coaching drama, and then win the AAC championship. Retzlaff’s redemption arc, Sumrall’s final push before a major SEC job, and the Green Wave’s fight for a second CFP appearance combine to make Tulane one of the most fascinating playoff candidates in the country. The path is narrow, but it is entirely within their control.
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