Michigan Next Head Coach Odds: Kenny Dillingham Grows to Lead Candidate as Jedd Fisch Chances Tank
The Michigan Wolverines are rushing to find a new head football coach after dumping Sherrone Moore amid a controversial investigation last week. Kenny Dillingham has continue Peter Alexis breaks down the shocking news and who the top candidates to replace Moore at Michigan are.
Peter Alexis - December 17, 2025, 5:30 AM EST
5 Minute ReadMichigan Next Head Coach Odds: Kenny Dillingham Becomes Lead Favorite After Jedd Fisch Falls Out of Running
One week after the stunning firing and subsequent arrest of Sherrone Moore, the Michigan head coaching market has shifted dramatically. What initially looked like a straightforward search quickly turned volatile as bowl season, playoff pressure, and public denials reshaped the board. Early betting enthusiasm has cooled on some of the biggest names, while a new favorite has emerged as Michigan’s administration continues its quiet but deliberate process behind the scenes.
The biggest early mover was Washington head coach Jedd Fisch, whose dominant 38-10 bowl win over Boise State sent his odds skyrocketing to over 54% on Saturday night. That surge did not last. Since then, multiple connected voices including Josh Pate have reported that Fisch is effectively out of the running, causing his odds to crater. At the same time, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has publicly declined interest, at least for now, while Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham has steadily climbed to the top of the board by not ruling anything out. Michigan, currently led on an interim basis by Biff Poggi, appears content to let the market move while it waits for the right leverage point.
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Michigan Next Head Coach Odds at Kalshi
Coach | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Kenny Dillingham | 31% |
Kalen DeBoer | 14% |
Jedd Fisch | 13% |
Biff Poggi | 6% |
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Michigan Next Head Coach Odds Breakdown
Kenny Dillingham: 31% Chance
Dillingham has emerged as the clear favorite after opening closer to the low 20% range. Unlike several other candidates, he has not publicly shut the door on Michigan, even while deflecting speculation during Arizona State’s bowl preparation. His comments about limited NIL funding for the Sun Devils raised eyebrows, especially given Michigan’s ability to immediately solve that problem. That could be genuine frustration, or a calculated move to extract more resources from ASU, something other coaches have successfully done in recent years. Either way, his willingness to keep the door cracked has pushed him to the top of the odds board.
Kalen DeBoer 14% Chance
DeBoer’s odds have dipped slightly after he publicly declined interest as Alabama prepares for its playoff rematch against Oklahoma. On the surface, that looks like a firm no. Context matters. If Alabama loses that game, the Crimson Tide would finish 9-4 with an SEC Championship loss and a first round playoff exit, a disappointing outcome by Alabama standards. That scenario could quickly change the tone on both sides. Michigan remains one of the few jobs capable of testing DeBoer’s resolve, especially if the Wolverines present a massive offer and long term stability that Alabama may not guarantee if fan unrest grows.
Jedd Fisch: 13% Chance
Fisch has experienced the most dramatic swing of any candidate. After peaking above 54% during his bowl blowout win, his odds have collapsed to 13%. Reports now suggest he is essentially out of contention despite his prior ties to Michigan as a former assistant. The rapid reversal indicates that either Michigan cooled internally or Fisch made it clear he was not leaving Washington. What once looked like a runaway favorite now feels like a longshot unless new information emerges.
Biff Poggi: 6% Chance
Poggi remains on the board as a contingency option rather than a true target. A former Michigan assistant under Jim Harbaugh and a highly respected prep coach, Poggi is viewed as a stabilizer more than a splash hire. His odds have ticked up slightly as other candidates fall away, but the path to him landing the permanent job likely requires Michigan failing to close on its top choices and opting to wait a year. That outcome remains possible, but not preferred.
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