Toledo vs. Louisville Opt-Out Tracker, Transfers, Injuries, Starting Lineups, Best Bet for Boca Raton Bowl
The Louisville Cardinals and Toledo Rockets are battling it out on Tuesday afternoon in the Boca Raton Bowl. Can Miller Moss and the Cardinals roll against a depleted Toledo roster? Peter Alexis analyzes this Toledo vs. Louisville transfer portal and opt-out tracker for Tuesday, December 23rd in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Peter Alexis - December 23, 2025, 11:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadToledo vs. Louisville Preview: Who Is Opting-Out, Injured for Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, December 23rd
Toledo and Louisville square off in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, December 23 at 2:00 PM ET, live on ESPN from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. Both teams enter at 8-4, but the betting market has drawn a clear line between them, with Louisville opening as a 7-point favorite and quickly expanding to -10 as roster news rolled in.
This matchup features two programs heading in opposite emotional directions. Louisville arrives with most of its core intact and quarterback Miller Moss set to play in what is expected to be his final college game. Toledo, meanwhile, is navigating a coaching change, heavy defensive opt-outs, and uncertainty at quarterback, all while facing a step up in overall talent against an ACC opponent.
The line movement toward Louisville tells the story. Toledo has been hit hard by transfer portal departures, particularly on defense, where multiple starters accounting for hundreds of snaps will not play. Losing the team’s sack leader, a starting safety, and a top linebacker is a massive blow against a Louisville offense that already owns a clear athletic edge. Those absences alone explain why this spread has ballooned from a touchdown to double digits.
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Toledo vs. Louisville Date, Time, and Where to Watch Boca Raton Bowl
- Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Toledo vs. Louisville Odds
Boca Raton Bowl | Odds |
|---|---|
Toledo +10 (-110) | Louisville -10 (-110) |
Toledo ML (+330) | Louisville ML (-425) |
Over 43.5 Total Points | Under 43.5 Total Points |
Click here for the latest Toledo vs. Louisville Odds
Toledo vs. Louisville Opt-Outs Tracker & Injuries
Toledo Transfer Portal
- Starting DE Malachi Davis (442 snaps; led team in sacks)
- Starting S Braden Awls (602 snaps)
- Starting LB Chris D'Appolonia (638 snaps)
- Starting LT Stephen Gales
None are expected to play.
Toledo Potential Opt-Outs
- S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (headed to Senior Bowl)
- CB Avery Smith
- CB Andre Fuller
- S Nasir Bowers
- RB Chip Trayanum
- WR Junior Vandeross III
All are practicing, so it looks promising for their availability. However, McNeil-Warren is also nursing a bit of an injury. The All-American is a projected early round draft pick, so I could see him sitting.
Toledo Injuries
- QB Tucker Gleason (doubtful)
- Starting LG Carter Fouty (639 snaps)
Expect Kalieb Osborne to start under center. The freshman signal caller went 15-24 for 260 yards in mainly mop up duty outside of the regular season finale where he looked good vs. Central Michigan after taking over for Gleason at the very end of the 1H. He finished 5-7 for 108 yards (1 TD) and added 68 rushing yards on 10 attempts (sans two sacks) with the Rockets out-scoring the Chips 21-0 after halftime.
Toledo Coaching Changes
Jason Candle took the UConn opening, so co-offensive coordinator and QB coach Robert Weiner will serve as interim. Some other coaches have departed as well, including:
- Defensive coordinator/LB coach Vince Kehres (Syracuse)
- Co-defensive coordinator/S coach Ross Watson (Iowa State)
- Special teams coordinator Stanton Weber (Kansas State)
Offensive line coach Mike Hallett will call the offense, while CB coach Perry Eliano will call the defense. A number of graduate assistants will step up into bigger roles as well, per Weiner.
Louisville Opt-Outs
- Starting DT Rene Konga (532 snaps)
- Starting DE Wesley Bailey (520 snaps)
Louisville Potential Opt-Outs
- QB Miller Moss (will play)
- WR Chris Bell (out with injury)
- DE Clev Lubin (should play)
Louisville Injuries
- WR Chris Bell (OUT)
- RB Isaac Brown
- RB Keyjuan Brown
- RB Duke Watson
- S Antonio Watts
- LB Stanquan Clark
Brohm is still unsure about the status of the running backs. He said he hopes at least one plays.
Toledo vs. Louisville Odds Breakdown - Boca Raton Bowl
The situation is even more difficult for Toledo offensively. Starting quarterback Tucker Gleason is doubtful, which puts the game in the hands of freshman Kalieb Osborne. While Osborne showed flashes late in the season, including a strong second half against Central Michigan, this is a completely different environment. Facing an ACC defense with weeks to prepare and far more depth is a tall order for a young quarterback making his first meaningful bowl start.
Coaching instability compounds the issue. Head coach Jason Candle has departed for UConn, and both defensive coordinators, the special teams coordinator, and several assistants are gone as well. Toledo will be piecing together game plans with interim staff and graduate assistants in expanded roles. Bowl games often expose disorganization, and Toledo is one of the least stable teams in the postseason field.
Louisville, by contrast, brings continuity and motivation. Miller Moss is expected to play, and he draws a favorable matchup against a depleted Toledo defense. Even with some injuries in the Cardinals’ running back room, Moss should be able to control the game through the air, stretch the field, and take advantage of mismatches. The low total of 43.5 reflects expectations of a controlled game script, but that still favors the more talented and organized team.
Historically, Louisville leads the all-time series 5-3, though the programs have not met since 1981. This version of Toledo bears little resemblance to past teams that thrived on defensive discipline and experience. With so many key pieces missing and limited motivation after a turbulent coaching exit, it is difficult to see Toledo keeping pace for four quarters.
Toledo vs. Louisville Best Bet
- Pick: Louisville -10 (-110) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
This number has moved for good reason. Louisville has the talent edge, the quarterback edge, and far more roster stability. Toledo is missing key defenders, may be without its starting quarterback, and is operating under an interim staff against a motivated ACC opponent. With Miller Moss poised to close his college career on a high note, Louisville is in position to pull away and cover the double-digit spread in the Boca Raton Bowl.
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