Rice vs. Texas State Opt-Out Tracker, Transfers, Injuries, Starting Lineups, Best Bet for Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
The Rice Owls will take on the Texas State Bobcats in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon in Fort Worth. Jack Borovitz analyzes this Rice vs. Texas State transfer portal and opt-out tracker for Friday, January 2nd in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Jack Borovitz - December 28, 2025, 6:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadRice vs. Texas State Preview: Who Is Opting-Out, Injured for Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Friday, January 2nd
The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl features a Friday afternoon rematch as Texas State looks to stay perfect in bowl games while Rice searches for its first postseason victory since 2014. Texas State sits as a -13.5 favorite after the line opened at -10.5, a significant 3-point move toward the Bobcats following Rice starting quarterback Chase Jenkins' decision to enter the transfer portal. The total dropped a full point from 59.5 to 58.5, reflecting market concern about Rice's offensive continuity under backup quarterback Drew Devillier.
Rice enters in crisis mode after losing starting quarterback Chase Jenkins to the transfer portal last night. Jenkins, who started every game this season in Scott Abell's spread option attack, accounted for 1,556 yards and 14 total touchdowns (1,025 passing, 9 TDs; 531 rushing, 5 TDs) before opting out just days before kickoff. Redshirt sophomore Drew Devillier steps in as his replacement, bringing minimal experience (20/38 for 137 yards, 1 TD in 2025) but a 6'5" frame that drew comparisons to Josh Allen coming out of Plano East High School. Rice also lost top receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TDs) and backup running back Daelen Alexander (74 carries, 392 yards) to the portal. The Owls ranked dead last in FBS red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 100% of trips inside the 20. Rice went 5-7 but received a bowl invitation after Kansas State and Iowa State declined their bids.
Texas State comes in riding a three-game winning streak after salvaging bowl eligibility from a five-game losing streak that nearly derailed the season. The Bobcats' explosive offense ranks 8th nationally in total offense (475.8 yards per game), 12th in rushing (220.5), and 16th in scoring (36.1 points). They led the nation with 17 plays of 50+ yards while adding 24 plays of 40+ yards (2nd nationally) and 36 plays of 30+ yards (7th). Quarterback Brad Jackson emerged as a dual-threat weapon, throwing for 3,050 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 692 rushing yards and 16 scores on the ground. His top target, Beau Sparks, finished 6th nationally with 1,113 receiving yards on 80 catches and 9 touchdowns, becoming the first Texas State receiver in the FBS era to surpass 1,000 yards in a season. Chris Dawn Jr. (931 yards) and running back Lincoln Pare (1,022 yards, 11 TDs) provide additional weapons. Texas State enters the bowl season with a perfect 2-0 bowl record, including a 45-21 victory over Rice in the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Looking for advanced AI predictions and props to enhance your CFB betting? Try out oddschecker+ now on this limited time 7-day free trial!
Rice vs. Texas State Date, Time, and Where to Watch Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Rice vs. Texas State Odds
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Odds |
|---|---|
Rice +13.5 (-112) | Texas State -13.5 (-108) |
Rice ML (+380) | Texas State ML (-500) |
Over 58.5 Total Points | Under 58.5 Total Points |
Click here for the latest Rice vs. Texas State Odds
Rice vs. Texas State Opt-Outs Tracker & Injuries
Rice Transfer Portal
- QB Chase Jenkins
- WR Drayden Dickmann (653 snaps)
- RB Daelen Alexander (74 carries, 392 yards)
Rice Injuries
- CB Khary Crump (kicked off team in Week 7)
Texas State Transfer Portal
- RB/KR Jaylen Jenkins
Texas State Injuries
- RG Tellek Lockette (lost to injury in Week 6)
- DT Bryce Carter (missed final two games; 312 snaps)
Rice vs. Texas State Odds Breakdown - Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice's spread option attack revolves around eating clock with running backs Quinton Jackson (811 yards, 6 TDs on 164 carries) and D'Andre Hardeman (319 yards), but Devillier's lack of reps in the system undermines that gameplan. The Owls rank 9th nationally in time of possession (32:54) but need quarterback mastery to execute the option effectively. Devillier showed flashes when replacing an injured Jenkins against South Florida, completing passes and rushing for a 10-yard gain on his first snap of the second half, but he lacks the experience to run this offense at full efficiency. Rice ranks 133rd nationally in passing (97.9 yards per game) and relies on the ground game to control tempo.
Texas State doesn't hit doubles or triples (58th in plays of 10+ yards), just home runs. The Bobcats' explosive playmaking ability creates variance, but they convert 47.9% of third downs (16th nationally) and score on 91.4% of red zone opportunities (18th). Rice surrendered 45.3% on third down (125th nationally) while allowing 20 scrimmage plays of 40+ yards, more than any other team. Jackson's dual-threat capability stresses defenses with his ability to extend plays, and Texas State earned 13 All-Sun Belt honors led by first-team selections for Sparks and Dorion Strawn. The Bobcats finished the regular season averaging 36.1 points per game after scoring at least 30 in nine of 12 games.
From a market perspective, the line opened at -10.5 and jumped 3 points to -13.5 following Jenkins' portal announcement, showing sharp money recognized the Bobcats' overwhelming advantage with Rice losing their offensive identity. The total dropped a full point from 59.5 to 58.5, reflecting concerns about Rice's ability to move the ball under Devillier. Texas State went 4-8 ATS this season but covered as double-digit favorites in a 52-27 win over Eastern Michigan. Rice went 5-7 ATS and covered as double-digit underdogs twice (2-4 overall as 10.5-point underdogs or more). The last time these programs met in a bowl game, Texas State dominated 45-21 in the 2023 First Responder Bowl for the program's first-ever postseason victory.
Rice vs. Texas State Best Bet
- Pick: Texas State -13.5 (-108) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
The quarterback disparity decides this matchup. Texas State returns a dual-threat star in Jackson who accounted for 393 total yards and five touchdowns in the regular season finale, while Rice brings with a redshirt sophomore. Rice's defense ranks last in red zone efficiency and allowed scoring on every single trip inside the 20 this season. Against an explosive Texas State attack that converts 91.4% of red zone chances and finishes with chunk plays rather than sustained drives, the Owls' vulnerabilities may get exposed repeatedly. The three-point line move toward Texas State following Jenkins' opt-out represents sharp money recognizing the disparity, and first-year coach Scott Abell deserves credit for getting Rice to a bowl at 5-7, but asking Devillier to run this system effectively with minimal preparation creates a nightmare scenario. Texas State's perfect 2-0 bowl record included that 45-21 beatdown of Rice in 2023, and this version of the Bobcats offense ranks significantly higher nationally. Lay the points with Texas State as they cruise to a third straight bowl victory.
More College Football Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
