Heisman Watch: Jeremiah Smith Retreats Back to Even Odds After Julian Sayin Shoulder Injury
Jeremiah Smith remains the Heisman Trophy favorite, but his price has moved from -200 back toward even money after Julian Sayin suffered a potentially season-ending throwing-arm injury. Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss are among the quarterbacks positioned to take advantage if Ohio State's passing attack slips. Check out the latest 2026 Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 8.
Peter Alexis - October 21, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Jeremiah Smith's Chances Threatened by Julian Sayin Shoulder Injury in Week 7
Smith has spent the last month building what looked like a commanding Heisman advantage, but the variable that could reshape the entire race is now outside of his control. Sayin is out indefinitely after injuring his throwing arm late in Ohio State's 19-15 win over Indiana, and the Buckeyes are preparing for the possibility that he will miss the remainder of the regular season and potentially the postseason.
That creates a fascinating question for the second half of the race. Smith's production and highlight plays have already built a legitimate Heisman résumé, but wide receivers are inherently dependent on quarterback play. If Miami stays undefeated behind Mensah or Chambliss continues stacking huge performances against SEC competition while Smith's production slows with a backup quarterback, his once-substantial lead could gradually disappear.
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Jeremiah Smith -105 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Smith still found the end zone against one of the best defenses he has faced, catching four passes for 68 yards and a 38-yard touchdown in Ohio State's 19-15 road win over Indiana. It was his fourth consecutive game with a touchdown, although Indiana held him well below the massive receiving totals he produced earlier in the season.
Smith has 52 receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games, averaging 18.9 yards per catch and 140.6 receiving yards per game. He remains on pace for one of the most productive seasons by a receiver in recent college football history.
The concern is now obvious. Sayin had thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns before injuring his throwing arm, and Ohio State will turn to either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. Fahey has only 13 collegiate pass attempts this season, while St. Clair has even less meaningful experience.
Ohio State is off this weekend before traveling to USC on October 31. The bye gives Ryan Day time to rework the offense, but Smith needs whichever quarterback wins the job to consistently deliver him the football. His Heisman case may ultimately depend on whether his elite individual talent can overcome a significant downgrade at quarterback.
Darian Mensah +290 Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Mensah delivered one of his most important performances of the season in Miami's 43-35 double-overtime rivalry win over Florida State. He completed 23 of 34 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, producing his first 300-yard performance since September.
The Miami quarterback has completed 135 of 167 passes for 1,764 yards, 18 touchdowns and just one interception through six games. His 80.8% completion rate remains extraordinary, while he has added 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns to give him 20 total scores.
Miami remains undefeated at 6-0, giving Mensah the team résumé that a quarterback normally needs to win the award. His lone interception against Florida State was his first of the entire season, and his efficiency remains significantly better than virtually every other quarterback in the country.
The Hurricanes host Pittsburgh on Saturday before road games against North Carolina and Notre Dame. Those upcoming opportunities become even more important with Smith potentially losing some production. If Mensah keeps Miami undefeated while pushing toward 30 total touchdowns, the gap at the top could disappear quickly.
Trinidad Chambliss +650 Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Chambliss continued his resurgence with four total touchdowns in Ole Miss' dominant 31-3 win over Missouri. He completed 20 of 36 passes for 241 yards and three touchdowns without an interception while adding 14 rushing yards and another score.
Through six games, Chambliss has completed 142 of 210 passes for 1,676 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 127 yards and six touchdowns, giving him 1,803 yards of total offense and 20 total scores.
His résumé now includes wins over LSU and Missouri, while his only major blemish remains the 52-28 loss at Florida. Since that defeat, Chambliss has accounted for eight touchdowns in consecutive blowout victories over Vanderbilt and Missouri.
Saturday brings perhaps his best remaining opportunity to move up the board. No. 7 Ole Miss visits No. 19 Texas in Austin, and a road victory with another multi-touchdown performance would give Chambliss exactly the type of national-stage result that can accelerate a Heisman campaign.
CJ Carr +1500 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Carr's momentum took a significant hit in Notre Dame's 28-24 loss at BYU. He completed 27 of a season-high 49 attempts for 261 yards but failed to throw a touchdown for only the second time this season.
Carr has completed 129 of 193 passes for 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and only one interception through seven games. He has also rushed for 82 yards and three touchdowns, giving him 19 total scores while maintaining an excellent touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The statistical résumé remains impressive, but the BYU loss presents a larger problem. Notre Dame is now 6-1, and Carr no longer has the undefeated-team argument that was helping him stay close to the top of the market.
The Irish are off this weekend before facing Navy in Foxborough on October 31. Carr then gets a massive opportunity when Miami visits South Bend on November 7, potentially creating a head-to-head Heisman showcase against Mensah.
Malachi Toney +2500 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
Toney exploded back into the Heisman discussion with one of his best performances of the season against Florida State. He caught 11 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns while adding 31 rushing yards on two carries in Miami's double-overtime victory.
The sophomore now has 50 receptions for 758 yards and eight receiving touchdowns through six games. He has also rushed for 50 yards on three carries, giving Miami another versatile offensive weapon alongside Mensah.
Toney's biggest obstacle is obvious. He plays on the same team as the current second choice in the Heisman market, meaning every huge receiving performance also strengthens Mensah's candidacy. That dynamic makes it difficult for Toney to separate himself unless his production becomes overwhelming.
Miami hosts Pittsburgh on Saturday. With Smith now dealing with quarterback uncertainty at Ohio State, Toney suddenly has a more realistic path to becoming the receiver alternative if he can continue producing 100-yard games and touchdowns for an undefeated Hurricanes team.
Bear Bachmeier +2500 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
No contender helped himself more last weekend than Bachmeier. The BYU quarterback led the Cougars to a 28-24 upset of No. 2 Notre Dame, completing 23 of 36 passes for 224 yards, one touchdown and one interception while rushing 13 times for 45 yards and two more scores.
Bachmeier has completed 100 of 152 passes for 1,257 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions through six games. He has been even more dangerous as a runner, producing 284 yards and six touchdowns, while also catching a 15-yard touchdown pass.
Those numbers give Bachmeier 1,556 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns while leading BYU to a 6-0 start. His raw passing totals trail Mensah, Chambliss and Carr, but his rushing production and signature win over Notre Dame give him a legitimate path into the race.
No. 2 BYU travels to UCF on Saturday. Bachmeier needs to avoid the natural letdown following such an emotional victory, but remaining undefeated would keep his candidacy alive before the Cougars enter the most important stretch of their Big 12 schedule.
Can Jeremiah Smith Hold Onto the Heisman Lead?
Smith remains the player to beat, but his margin for error has changed dramatically. A week ago, the biggest question was whether any quarterback could produce enough to challenge a receiver putting together a historic statistical season. Now the question is whether Smith can maintain that historic pace without the quarterback who helped create it.
The upcoming bye is valuable because Ohio State can build an offense around Fahey or St. Clair rather than forcing a backup into the game without preparation. Smith is also good enough to make life considerably easier for an inexperienced quarterback through screens, quick throws and manufactured touches.
But time now favors the quarterbacks. Mensah can keep stacking wins and statistics for undefeated Miami. Chambliss has marquee SEC games ahead. Bachmeier just produced the biggest win of his season, while Carr still has a direct showdown with Miami remaining.
Smith does not need 200 receiving yards every week to win the Heisman. He does, however, need Ohio State's quarterback transition to preserve enough of the passing game for him to remain the most dominant individual player in the country. If his four-catch performances become the norm rather than the exception, an award race that appeared almost finished could become wide open by November.
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