NFL OROTY Odds: 58% of Bettors in Last Week Backing Justin Herbert to Win OROTY

Justin Herbert's incredible play the last three weeks has bettors convinced he's the pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year
Brian Good
Thu, October 8, 8:02 AM EDT

2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

The 2020 rookie quarterback class has long been considered one of the best in recent memory. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love were all selected in the first round and look to be the cornerstones of their franchise.

But, as the 2020 season started, Burrow was the only one of the bunch that was pegged to start Week 1 under center for his club. As a result, the former LSU Tiger was the overwhelming favorite to win this season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award (+250).

Burrow is still the overwhelming favorite (+150), and is even odds-on in some places, but he’s not the only rookie QB at the top anymore. Because of a bizarre injury to Chargers starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor that forced Herbert into a starting role in Week 2, Herbert (+1000) is the third favorite to win the award and the most popular pick among bettors this past week.

Justin Herbert

Herbert, in his first year out of Oregon after being picked No. 6 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, has started three games so far this season. He’s passed for 931 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 72% of his passes. That’s 310 yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt through the air while posting a 102.2 QB rating.

Burrow has more yards (1121) and touchdowns (6) and fewer interceptions (2), but he has a worse QB rating (89.7) and throws for fewer yards per game (280.3) and yards per attempt (6.3). He’s dominating Herbert in most counting stats, but that’s just a product of opportunity. Three games into his career, Herbert is outplaying the former No. 1 overall pick.

2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award Betting

Herbert’s current string of stellar play has resulted in a massive influx in wagers backing him to win 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year. This past week, 58.56% of all bets in the market have been on Herbert. Burrow is the third most popular pick in that same timespan with 11% of bettors backing him.

Most sportsbooks agree that Herbert is the third favorite for this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, behind Burrow and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but where they disagree is price.

At Bet365, Herbert is currently +350 to win the award. At BetAmerica and Resorts, you can get him for +1000. That’s a $650 difference in winnings on a $100 wager.

His implied probability of winning at +1000 is 9.1%. Meanwhile, it’s 22.2% at +350.

2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award Odds

Player Odds (Click to Bet) Winnings on $100 Wager
Joe Burrow +150 $150
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +300 $300
Justin Herbert +1000 $1000
James Robinson +1400 $1400
Jonathan Taylor +1600 $1600
CeeDee Lamb +2000 $2000
Justin Jefferson +2200 $2200
Antonio Gibson +2500 $2500
Jerry Jeudy +3500 $3500
Brandon Aiyuk +3900 $3900
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