Coming into the season, Tom Brady was an understandably popular pick to win NFL MVP in 2020. Brady, even at age 43, is one of the best QBs in the NFL, has won the award three times in his career and signed with a team (Tampa Bay) that is loaded with talent at offensive skill positions.
But things haven’t gone exactly to plan for Brady and the rest of the Bucs, and as a result, the former Patriots QB and future Hall of Famer has seen his odds to win the award substantially drift.
2020 NFL MVP Betting Breakdown
To start the 2020 NFL season, Brady was seen by most as a great value play. Before Week 1, he was the fifth favorite to win NFL MVP at +1800. He was behind Patrick Mahomes (+400), Lamar Jackson (+700), Russell Wilson (+800) and Dak Prescott (+1400).
Of the group, he was the only multiple-time MVP Award recipient, and was also reuniting with his favorite target, Rob Gronkowski. Since then, the Buccaneers are 3-2 following a Week 5 20-19 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears, and Brady’s 59.2 QBR is 20th in the NFL.
Now, with five games of the 2020 NFL season behind him, Brady’s +1800 odds to win the NFL MVP have drifted out to +3300. The current odds imply a just a 2.9% chance he wins the award for a fourth time. At +1800, he had a 5.3% shot.
Brady isn’t the only former MVP that’s falling short of expectations. While Wilson and Mahomes are up to their usual impressive form, 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson has dropped to +1600 and is now fifth favorite.
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