Justin Herbert is now the oddsmakers’ favorite to win OROTY, with his odds of +125 carrying an implied probability of 44.44% that he is honored with the award at the end of the season.
Herbert’s impressive performances in LA have led oddsmakers to elevate him ahead of long-time market leader Joe Burrow, with the Bengals QB now given odds of +225 (30.80% implied chance).
As the graphic below illustrates, Burrow’s position in the rankings has been fairly steady, with his implied chance remaining between 25 and 40% so far this season.
Herbert, by comparison, was not even a starter in Week 1 and was considered a rank outsider by sportsbooks; his progress in the betting has been as meteoric as his season, and he now finds himself an unlikely frontrunner to win OROTY.
Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Both young men are enjoying dream starts to their NFL careers and will be delighted with how things have begun, but only one can win the coveted honor of being the league’s best attacking newcomer.”
“Herbert may have crept ahead but if Burrow retains the standard he has set so far then the race is far from over. We take our hats off to any pre-season Burrow bettors, as they will be now be sitting on a fantastic potential pay out come the end of the season.”
Justin Herbert +125
Joe Burrow +225
Tua Tagovailoa +1600
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2000
Justin Jefferson +2000