Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots NFL Week 8 Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview
A Week 9 NFL betting matchup that carries plenty of interest is the late-afternoon showdown between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers. Both of these teams are very much in the thick of the AFC postseason picture through seven weeks. This game could prove critical not just in the standings immediately after but down the road as a potential tiebreaker. The NFL betting odds have tabbed the home side as a modest favorite ahead of this Chargers vs. Patriots contest.
Chargers vs. Patriots Week 8 NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview
New England Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Date: Sunday, October 31, 2021
Start Time: 4:05 PM EST
Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, CA
TV Coverage: CBS
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots certainly feel like a team that doesn’t quite equate to their actual win-loss record. Three of New England’s four losses on the season could have easily been won if not for a bad break here and there. This sentiment rings even louder when concerning their losing record against the spread. At any rate, public perception has been bolstered following a 54-13 demolishing of the New York Jets last week. It marked the Patriots’ second win over their AFC East rivals this season. However, this one came in a much more convincing fashion. Bill Belichick’s defense continued to impress, coming up with three takeaways and a pair of sacks. In addition, safety Kyle Dugger recorded an INT for the second straight game.
Where the Patriots have displayed the most growth and improvement over the first seven weeks is definitely on offense. Such is naturally the case with a rookie quarterback under center. Mac Jones had one of his best games to date last week. He finished with over 300 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns. All of that production came despite not even playing the entire game. Three Patriots running backs posted impressive stat lines, led by Damien Harris’ 100-yard rushing day and two scores. J.J. Taylor also scored two rushing touchdowns while Brandon Bolden was the team’s leading receiver with 79 yards and a score. While New England’s offense is primarily predicated on the backfield, it’s worth noting that both wideout Kendrick Bourne and tight end Hunter Henry have been making strides as go-to targets for Jones.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
When we last saw the Chargers in action, they were blown out by the Baltimore Ravens on the road in a highly-touted NFL betting matchup. After having a bye week to regroup, LA must now contend with a Patriots outfit that routed them on their home turf last season. It certainly can’t get much worse than the team’s Week 6 performance. QB Justin Herbert struggled mightily in the loss. He failed to eclipse 200 yards passing and threw a pick. He also has no support whatsoever from the run game. In fact, Herbert led the team with 12 yards rushing against Baltimore.
Herbert and the Chargers’ offense may face similar challenges on Sunday against the savvy New England defense. If so, the pressure will be on Brandon Staley and the Bolts’ own defense to rebound after two poor performances. In the last two games before the team’s bye, the defense surrendered 76 total points. That’s two points more than Los Angeles’ first four opponents combined to score against them this season. Being without linebacker Drue Tranquil and safety Nasir Adderley certainly didn’t help matters against the Ravens.
Patriots vs. Chargers Betting Odds and Line Movement
The following table displays the best Chargers vs. Patriots NFL betting odds and lines available in the market.
|Team||Moneyline||Implied Win Probability||Spread||Total|
|Patriots||+210||32.3%||+5.5 (-106)||O 48.5 (-110)|
|Chargers||-225||69.2%||-5.5 (-107)||U 48.5 (+100)|
The point spread for this matchup has yet to fluctuate much from the opening number. The line of Chargers -5.5 is identical to how the oddsmakers opened this game on the lookahead last week. Only one half-point variation could be found in the Las Vegas market at the time of writing. On the other hand, the total has been gradually increasing. After opening at 47.5, the over/under has since climbed to 48.5. Several Vegas shops already list this game at 49 and 49.5, suggesting that further movement is likely elsewhere in the country.
The one extremely interesting facet of this NFL betting matchup is the public ticket count. At the time of writing, a whopping 61% of Chargers vs. Patriots moneyline bets are on the road underdog. While the majority of spread bets are also on New England, the discrepancy is much smaller at 51%-49%.
Chargers vs. Patriots Betting Picks and Prediction
Given that the Patriots are overall a better football team than their current record suggests, they are a good team to bet on going forward this season. Unfortunately, the majority of the NFL betting public seems to be engaging in a similar practice this week. However, considering the most recent data point for both teams coming into this game, current market perceptions are clear.
While the Patriots do have a realistic shot at winning this game outright, the clear best bet here is to take the points. Bill Belichick’s defense should be able to keep New England in the game. Film from the Chargers’ horrific outing against Baltimore two weeks ago will undoubtedly be studied as part of the Pats’ preparation for Sunday’s matchup.
We saw a much less talented Patriots team go into LA and throttle the Chargers a year ago. However, with Mac Jones looking more comfortable and the offense improving week-to-week, the Patriots have the goods to compete once again. Depending on how high the total climbs, buying back on the under might also be a play later on in the week.