Packers vs. Chiefs NFL Week 9 Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview
Packers vs. Chiefs NFL Week 9 Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview
There has been plenty of hype surrounding the Week 9 NFL betting showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, the quarterback duel that many were expecting is no longer set to transpire. The odds for this Packers vs Chiefs game have shifted drastically in the home team’s favor as a result.
Packers vs. Chiefs Week 9 NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview
Green Bay Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021Start Time: 4:25 PM ESTLocation: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MOTV Coverage: FOX
Green Bay Packers Preview
All the Packers have done since being blown out in their season-opener is win. Last Thursday, Green Bay took on the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. Aaron Rodgers may have been without his top two wide receivers, but the Packers still emerged from the desert with an upset victory. The fact of the matter is that there is more to this year’s Packers squad than Rodgers and the passing game. Offensively, the RB tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for over 130 yards on 31 carries. Defensively, the Packers continue to hold their own despite being without injured corner Jaire Alexander. The defense has now held five straight opponents to 22 points or less.
All of that being said, the one guy who consistently gives the Packers a chance regardless of who is around him is Rodgers. Without their star quarterback, Green Bay faces an uphill battle. Such will be the case in this week’s NFL betting matchup. It was announced on Wednesday that Rodgers tested positive for the virus that shall not be named. Since he has declined the controversial vaccine, Rodgers already been ruled out for Sunday’s game, per NFL rules and guidelines aimed at forcing the hand of the players. This means that fans and bettors alike will get their first true look at last year’s first-round draft pick, Jordan Love. For as bad as the Chiefs defense has been this season, the Packers’ QB situation might actually put Kansas City in the streamer conversation this week for those playing fantasy football.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs were fortunate to come away from their Monday night NFL betting matchup against the New York Giants victorious. While the outright win got Kansas City back to .500 on the season, they failed to cover the spread yet again and fell to 2-6 ATS on the season. At this point, it seems foolish to expect the same Chiefs offense of years prior to emerging. Defenses have simply figured out how to slow things down. More importantly, they continue to fluster Patrick Mahomes. With another interception thrown on Monday, Mahomes now leads the league in INTs through the first eight weeks. It’s hard to imagine many NFL betting analysts predicted that one before the season began.
Mahomes did manage to overcome the pick to finish Monday’s game with 275 yards passing. He also hit star receiver Tyreek Hill for a score, part of Hill’s 12-catch, 94-yard effort. The Giants took tight end Travis Kelce completely out of things. This forced Mahomes to check it down to running back Darrel Williams often. Mecole Hardman also stepped up with a strong game. While it may be too soon to say that the Chiefs’ defense is fixing things, they have done well in holding two of their last three opponents below 20 points. For a unit that surrendered 30+ in each of its first five games, that’s certainly an improvement.
Packers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds and Line Movement
The following table displays the best Packers vs Chiefs NFL betting odds and lines available in the market.
| Team | Moneyline | ML Implied Win Probability | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | +300 | 25% | +7 (-110) | O 48 (-105) |
| Chiefs | -330 | 76.7% | -7 (-109) | U 48 (-110) |
Originally, oddsmakers opened the Chiefs at -2.5 ahead of this highly-anticipated matchup. That line actually got moved down as far as -1 until the news of Aaron Rodgers’ status broke. The adjusted point spread now sees the Chiefs laying a full touchdown throughout the NFL betting market. Some Las Vegas shops are still lingering at -7.5 as well.
Predictably, the total for this Packers vs Chiefs matchup has also plummeted in the wake of the Rodgers news. An opening number of 53.5 has dropped to 48 across the market. One could also argue that the decreased total might be influenced further by yet another disappointing performance by the Chiefs’ offense last week.
Packers vs. Chiefs Betting Picks and Prediction
The bombshell news regarding Aaron Rodgers has completely flipped the script when it comes to handicapping this NFL betting matchup. Expect the Packers to lean heavily on their rushing attack with Jordan Love under center, perhaps even more so than they did last Thursday. For the Chiefs, it remains business as usual. However, they now are facing a much larger number as they try to cover the spread for only the third time this season.
When it comes down to it, this feels like a spot in which Kansas City can pick up an ATS victory. The implied probability of 25% that the current moneyline odds give the Packers to win this game is too high. Bettors must not be fooled by the quantitative difference of being without Davante Adams last week compared to Rodgers this Sunday. The struggling Chiefs are catching a massive break as they look to keep pace in the crowded AFC West race.
Packers vs. Chiefs NFL Betting Picks: Chiefs -7 (-109)
Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.