Bears vs. Steelers NFL Week 9 MNF Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

The lowest O/U line of the Week 9 slate suggests that points will be at a premium in this primetime matchup.
Henry John
Sat, November 6, 7:16 AM EDT

Bears vs. Steelers NFL Week 9 MNF Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

NFL Week 9 is set to conclude on Monday night with a cross-conference matchup featuring the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams have relied heavily on their defenses throughout the first half of the season. The NFL betting odds certainly expect that to continue on Monday with this game having the lowest total on the board this week. Oddsmakers also view the home side as a fairly large favorite ahead of this Bears vs Steelers MNF matchup.

Bears vs. Steelers Week 9 NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview

Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Date: Monday, November 8, 2021
Start Time: 8:15 PM EST
Location: Heinz Field — Pittsburgh, PA
TV Coverage: ESPN

Bears vs. Steelers odds

Chicago Bears Preview

You know a team is offensively challenged when a point total of 22 marks their second-highest scoring output through eight games. Unfortunately for the Bears, it came in a double-digit home loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields did manage to drum up some excitement even in defeat. However, it was more for what he did scrambling out of the pocket than through the air. Fields led all Chicago players with 103 yards rushing and a touchdown on just 10 total carries. He again fell short of 200 yards passing though and also threw another interception in the Bears’ Week 8 loss.

Rookie tailback Khalil Herbert has turned numerous heads with his strong play in the absence of starter David Montgomery. He was held in check by the stiff 49ers run defense, but still saw 23 carries and ran for 72 yards. Statistically, Herbert could struggle to move the ball against the Steelers’ defensive front as well. Given the state of Chicago’s passing attack, bettors should still expect a run-heavy approach offensively. On the other side of the ball, a once-feared Bears defense ranks just 18th in overall adjusted efficiency entering Monday’s NFL betting showdown. They got burned badly by San Francisco last week, allowing nearly 500 yards of offense while failing to record a single sack or turnover.

Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

The Steelers ground out a massive divisional win on the road last Sunday over the Cleveland Browns. Winners of three straight entering this week’s NFL betting matchup, Pittsburgh is once again firmly in the thick of the AFC North race. Although they only managed to put up 15 points, the Steelers have to be happy with the overall offensive performance. Ben Roethlisberger finished with 266 yards passing and a score. Rookie RB Najee Harris continued his stellar campaign with 120 total yards and a rushing touchdown. Even without slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers continue to find ways to move the chains. Rookie right end Pat Freiermuth stepped up alongside wideouts Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool last week. The Penn State product has tons of talent and could continue to be a key cog in the Pittsburgh aerial attack moving forward.

Despite taking plenty of criticism earlier in the season, the Steelers have shown that they are still one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. Pittsburgh has now held three straight opponents to 20 points or less. Four different players were in on sacks last week, led by star pass-rusher T.J. Watt who finished with 1.5. The fact that Pittsburgh grades out as a top-10 defense in adjusted efficiency despite only forcing six turnovers thus far speaks volumes about just how tough it is to move the ball and score on this unit.

Bears vs. Steelers Betting Odds and Line Movement

The following table displays the best Bears vs Steelers NFL betting odds and lines available in the market.

Team

Moneyline

ML Implied Win Probability

Spread

Total

Bears

+230

30.3%

+6.5 (-110)

O 40 (-105)

Steelers

-250

71.4%

-6.5 (+100)

U 40 (-110)

Bears vs. Steelers odds

The point spread for Monday night’s contest has increased in the Steelers’ favor. After opening at Pittsburgh -5, the NFL betting odds now list Mike Tomlin’s club as 6.5-point favorites at home. The implied probability associated with current moneyline odds gives the Steelers over a 70% chance to win this cross-conference battle.

The over/under for this Bears vs Steelers MNF matchup stands out simply because of how low the number is. Oddsmakers opened the total at 40.5 and the market has seen no reason to bet the game over. In fact, the line has nudged down half a point to the current mark of 40.5. It should also be noted that ATS ticket counts are fairly even at the time of writing. The Steelers have attracted 55% of public bets thus far.

Bears vs. Steelers Betting Picks and Prediction

From a general handicapping standpoint, the increasing point spread contradicts the very low total. In games where fewer points are expected to be scored, it automatically becomes tougher for NFL betting favorites to cover sizable spreads. Despite the market agreeing with oddsmakers on the threshold of 40 total points, the spread has seen some adjustment with the Steelers now laying nearly a full touchdown. Yet, on the surface, it feels as though Pittsburgh is capable of covering that number.

This game really comes down to how much, if any, the Bears offense can score. It took some broken-down plays and Justin Fields making things happen with his legs for Chicago to generate anything last week. One could easily argue that the Steelers’ defense is superior to that of the 49ers. Assuming Chicago gets a touchdown or two, this game is probably good to slip over the very shallow total. When it comes to playing a side, we’re looking at a Steelers or pass scenario.

Bears vs. Steelers NFL Betting Picks: Steelers -6.5 (+100) and Over 40 (-105)

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