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Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots NFL Week 11 TNF Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

Falcons vs. Patriots Thursday Night Football Week 11 betting odds, picks, and game preview. Henry John goes over everything you need to know for Thursday.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots NFL Week 11 TNF Betting Odds, Expert Picks, and Preview

The eleventh week of the NFL betting season kicks off on Thursday night with an intriguing matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. After slow starts to the 2021 campaign, the two teams have combined to win eight of their 11 total games played over the last five weeks. The Patriots in particular ride a major momentum wave into Thursday’s game having won four straight. The NFL betting odds have set the visitors as nearly a full touchdown favorite ahead of this Patriots vs Falcons TNF showdown.

Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview

New England Patriots (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)

Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021Start Time: 8:20 PM ESTLocation: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GATV Coverage: FOX, NFL Network

Click Here For Falcons vs. Patriots TNF Odds

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New England Patriots Preview

At this point, there is a real argument to be made that the Patriots are playing the best football of any team in the NFL. Winners of four straight and five of the last six, New England enters this TNF NFL betting contest red-hot. Last week saw Bill Belichick’s bunch thoroughly dominate a fellow AFC playoff hopeful in the Cleveland Browns. For the second straight week, the Patriots defense held their opponent to single-digits on the scoreboard. The Browns went right down the field early for a touchdown and would never score again in what ultimately wound up as a 45-7 blowout. Safety Kyle Dugger continued the Pats’ incredible start to the season in the turnover department with an interception. New England held the Browns to just 217 total yards and surged into the top-five in adjusted defensive efficiency following the performance.

Along with the exceptional defensive play, we saw an additional side of the Patriots’ offense last Sunday that had been more or less kept under wraps. In a promising matchup against a porous Browns secondary, rookie QB Mac Jones took full advantage. He threw three touchdown passes in what was probably his best game as a pro thus far. Tight end Hunter Henry caught two scoring strikes and continues to be a prime target down in the red zone. Wideout Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown as in the win as well. With lead running back Damien Harris inactive due to a concussion, another rookie stepped up in his absence. Rhamondre Stevenson rumbled for 100 yards rushing and a pair of scores as the New England ground game continued its recent roll.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

After pulling off a surprising NFL betting upset two weeks ago against an NFC South Divisional opponent, the Falcons were largely lifeless in a lopsided loss last Sunday. Atlanta was on the wrong end of a 43-3 beatdown courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys. Despite star receiver Calvin Ridley stepping away from the game for personal reasons, Matt Ryan had been cobbling together some solid offensive performances. That was not the case against former Falcons head coach and current Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Ryan went just 9-21 for 117 yards and threw two picks in the loss. With hybrid skill player Cordarrelle Patterson suffering an ankle injury, the Falcons figure to be up against it offensively again on Thursday night.

On the bright side, Patterson was able to practice in a limited capacity on both Monday and Tuesday. Atlanta desperately needs the man who has been their most productive player all season in Thursday’s NFL betting matchup. Trying to break down the Patriots’ defense is difficult enough as it is. If Ryan is forced to do so without any reliable weapons, things could get ugly in a hurry. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts led all Falcons pass-catcher with 60 yards receiving in the loss to Dallas. Although he is the most talented asset on the field for Atlanta, Pitts does not yet have the experience to beat NFL defenses that can key in on him. Speaking of defense, the Falcons haven’t played a whole lot of it this season. Atlanta enters this TNF battle ranked 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Patriots vs. Falcons Betting Odds and Line Movement

The following table displays the best Patriots vs Falcons NFL betting odds and lines available in the market.

TeamMoneylineML Implied Win ProbabilitySpreadTotal
Patriots-25071.4%-6.5 (-110)O 47.5 (-109)
Falcons+24029.4%+6.5 (+100)U 47.5 (-110)

Click Here For Falcons vs. Patriots TNF Odds

We have seen both the point spread and total grow larger relative to opening numbers for this TNF matchup. The Patriots are finally starting to garner the respect they deserve from the NFL betting market. After opening as four-point favorites on the road, New England is now laying a consensus number of -6.5. Various Las Vegas sportsbooks had already moved this line to a full seven-point spread as well at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, the total has risen a point and a half from 46 to the current 47.5. There was also a lone 48 visible in the Vegas market suggesting that the over/under may rise further still. NFL betting oddsmakers give the Patriots over a 71% chance to run their win streak to five straight games on Thursday night.

Patriots vs. Falcons Betting Picks and Prediction

As someone who has bet on the Patriots virtually every week to date, it’s hard to see a reason to hop off the train now. Yes, the NFL betting market has caught up to just how good this team is. Such is typically the case when any team experiences a prolonged run of success. However, this TNF matchup is a true mismatch in more ways than one. New England has the advantage on both sides of the ball and a massive one when it comes to the coaches on the sidelines as well. It’s almost impossible to fathom Bill Belichick losing to one Arthur Smith. Knowing that the market has already begun moving the spread to a full seven, bettors should not shy away from laying -6.5 with the Patriots.

When it comes to the total, the NFL betting market’s move to the over contradicts my initial inkling to play under 47.5. Given that this is a short week of prep for both teams, there is a level of concern. Trusting a depleted Falcons offense to decipher the Patriots defense is foolish. On the other side, New England might be perfectly content to run the ball early and often and grind out a road win. Expect this game to play out more similar to the Pats’ 24-6 win over Carolina two weeks ago than their beatdown of Cleveland on Sunday.

Patriots vs Falcons NFL Betting Picks: Patriots -6.5 (-110) and Under 47.5 (-110)


Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.


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