First NFL Head Coach To Be Fired Odds: Is Matt Nagy Done?

After losing to a backup quarterback in Week 11, Bears head coach Matt Nagy is on thin ice? Will he be the first head coach to be fired? Here's what the odds say.
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First NFL Head Coach To Be Fired Odds: Is Matt Nagy Done?

Matt Nagy’s coaching life has been hanging by a thread for the last year-plus. He narrowly escaped being fired thanks to the seventh playoff spot last year. Now, this year, the Bears sit 3-7 after a five-game losing streak and Nagy’s seat is hotter than a Carolina Reaper.

Oddsmakers believe that Nagy is going to be the first coach fired this year. He’s given +160 odds, or an implied 34.5% chance to be the first head coach fired -- and that was before losing to a backup quarterback making his first career start in Week 11. Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, +225, is the only coach who even comes close to Nagy.

Nagy moves ahead of Mike Zimmer who had been the most likely to be fired last week. A Vikings’ win has cooled that talk for now though, as he’s gone from +160 odds to +600 to be the first coach fired.

How Much Trouble is Nagy in?

Matt Nagy is in real trouble, and it goes past the Bears' five-game losing streak. The biggest issue is the poor play of Justin Fields. The rookie quarterback has four passing touchdowns to eight interceptions, he’s passing for less than 150 yards a game, and he leads the NFL with eight fumbles.

The Bears invested too much into Fields to keep him with a lame-duck head coach when he’s not playing well. Unless Fields has an incredible second half of the season, it’s hard to see Nagy not being the first head coach fired.


CoachOddsImplied chance
Matt Nagy+16034.5%
Urban Meyer+22530.8%
Vic Fangio+50016.7%
Joe Judge+60014.3%
Mike Zimmer+60014.3%


A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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