2022 NFL Draft Odds: Lions Still the Heavy Favorite For First Overall Pick

Even with the win this past week, the Detroit Lions are still heavy favorites to take home the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Matt O'Leary |
Wed, December 8, 12:25 PM EST | 3 min read
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2022 NFL Draft Odds: Lions Still the Heavy Favorite For First Overall Pick

This past week, in Week 13 the NFL season saw what we thought was the impossible. The Detroit Lions won a football game. Not only did they win, but they also did it in dramatic fashion as Jared Goff hit Amon-Ra St. Brown to win it as time expires.

Good for the Lions, they’ve been fighting hard all year long for Dan Campbell and now they got their first win sitting at 1-10-1 on the season. Now the question becomes, did they hurt their fight for the number one overall pick?

Well, there’s no Trevor Lawrence at the top of this draft class, so even if they did is it really that big of a deal? Currently, the top three picks are the Lions (1-10-1), Jaguars (2-10), and Texans (2-10).

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If you’re unaware, the NFL Draft works by record first, then strength of schedule in order to separate ties. There’s no tie right now, so if the Lions lose out as well as the Jaguars and Texans then they’re golden and have nothing to worry about, it’s if they tie with Jacksonville and Houston where you might see an issue arise.

Here are the remaining schedules of the three teams:

Lions: @ Denver, vs Arizona, @ Atlanta, @ Seattle, vs Green Bay

Jaguars: @ Tennessee, vs Houston, @ Jets, @ New England, vs Indianapolis

Texans: vs Seattle, @ Jacksonville, vs Los Angeles, @ San Francisco, vs Tennessee

Obviously, that Week 15 matchup between Jacksonville and Houston is going to be huge as one team will more than likely take themselves out of the race for the first overall pick with a win. Houston got the best of Jacksonville in Week 1 37-21.

As a result, the Lions still have the best odds with a 49.4 percent chance of having the first overall pick according to Football Outsiders. It’s really a three-team race between Detroit, Jacksonville, and Houston but unless something nuts happens it’ll more than likely be Detroit.

First Overall Pick Odds

Team1st Pick PercentageOdds
Detroit Lions49.4%+102
Houston Texans25.8%+288
Jacksonville Jaguars21.8%+359

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