Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 6

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 6

Week 5 was -- well -- let's just say an interesting one. Thursday night featured two quarterbacks that seem completely washed, whereas Sunday kicked off with a Giants win over the Packers in London. The week ended on Monday night when the Raiders let the Chiefs come from behind for the division win, a result that was capped by an unfortunate scene that saw Davante Adams seemingly push over a photograph in frustration.

Following yet another week of play, wins, and losses, the NFL's odds have shifted and settled going into the first week of byes. Which of Week 5's outcomes led to the largest moves in DraftKings' latest odds to win Super Bowl 57?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 6

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Super Bowl Odds Risers

Buffalo Bills

The Bills entered the season as the odds-on favorite to slay quite a few demons and win Bills Mafia its first-ever NFL championship. Through five weeks, the only thing that may have changed is the confidence in Buffalo's standing as the top team in the league. At 4-1, they lead the AFC East and are second in points for and first in points against per game. They're among the league's very elite, which was fully displayed in their Week 5 trouncing of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Playing host to rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett and company, Josh Allen and the team cranked the offense up to 10 with 38 points, including 31 in the first two quarters. As for the defense, it held Pittsburgh to three points with one interception and three sacks of the first-time starter. It marked the Bills' fourth game of the season with at least two sacks and holding their opponent to 10 or fewer points.

Being the two-headed monster that they are, the Bills have watched as their title odds have incrementally improved over the first five weeks. After starting at +550, they've moved from +500 to +400 to where they presently sit at +350. Their implied probability moved up more than 2% to better than 22%.

We will also give a nod to the Philadelphia Eagles, as they share the same week-over-week improvement to their implied probability.

Houston Texans

Do you know that thing they say about losing weight -- that once you hit a certain weight, you start to slow down and sometimes regain some of the weight you lost. Well, that applied to the Texans and their Super Bowl odds. They did, in fact, start out the year at the very bottom of the league at +25000, but the progression of the season took them down to the very bottom of the pits to +100000 before this past week. It was only a matter of time before they gained some steam.

Granted, the Texans could've just kept losing, but after an upset win on the road against the division foe Jacksonville Jaguars they aren't the only team bringing up the rear at +50000. It was an ugly 13-6 victory, but a win is a win, and because of it, Houston is two wins and two Tennessee losses away from the division lead (given the tie they have to their record) -- believe it or not.

The Texans' outlook isn't much different. They're a young team with a young and not-so-highly drafted quarterback, as well as question marks at the playmaking positions. Still, their defense is 13th in scoring, and though their offense is 27th, it is in the top 15 in both passing and rushing efficiency, per PFF's grades. They can pull out another two to four wins, but it would be shocking to see their odds shorten from this point forward. They'll have a bye before facing the Raiders, Titans, and Eagles in their next three games.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Los Angeles Rams

Entering Week 5, the Rams were truly starting to spark doubt among their fans and believers. An ugly loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers on national television showed their biggest weakness: their offensive line. And this past week was no different.

Despite the home-field advantage, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford struggled immensely against the Dallas Cowboys and their Micah Parsons-led pass rush. Parsons led the way with two sacks, contributing to the team total of five sacks, not inclusive of another quarterback hits. The Rams' offense was disrupted over and over and was held to 10 points as a result. Dallas took the contest 22-10 and blanked the defending champs in the second half. For the third time this season, they were held to 10 or fewer points.

That McVay offense has been all the rage across the league, but its Achilles heel has by far overcome its shine. Now, the wannabe back-to-back champs are 29th in points, 2-3 by record, and in a three-way tie for last in the division. They've gone from fifth in shortest Super Bowl odds to start the year to a tie (with the Dolphins) for 10th at +2500. They're sixth among NFC teams alone.

A Week 7 bye is looming, and after that, matchups with the Niners and Buccaneers. But before they get a much-needed in-season rest, the Rams draw an advantageous matchup with the Panthers at home on Sunday afternoon. If you believe in L.A. long-term, this might be your last shot at a discount, as their odds are destined to tighten after a comfortable win over the uncertain Panthers.

Carolina Panthers

Speaking of the Panthers, uncertain may be a kind way of saying they're awful. At 1-4, they've been so awful that they became the first team to lose their head coach this season. On Monday, Carolina parted ways with Rhule after two-plus failed seasons. That was after his 4th loss of the season and 27th (in 38) as an NFL coach.

On Sunday, the day before the termination was announced, the Panthers were demolished by the 49ers 37-15 in a game held at Bank of America Stadium. That defeat represented Carolina's second straight at home and third in four games in Charlotte, as well as their largest loss by margin this year. Preseason addition Baker Mayfield went without a touchdown, was picked once, and sacked on four different occasions. The defensive unit was continuously put in a bad spot and actually did its part to keep the game as close as it was in the end.

That's part of the story with Carolina, though. While holding teams to 21 points per game and two to less than 20 before Week 5, their defense is 18th in PFF grade and boasts a couple of young talents in pass rusher Brian Burns and defensive back Jaycee Horn. So, there's promise over the rest of the year under a new regime. If Mayfield and the offense can do much of anything, they could surprise with their end-of-season record.

However, that isn't the same as betting on them to win it all. That seems a lost endeavor, particularly with Carolina slipping into a tie at the very bottom. They dropped down by +30000 points and are now behind the likes of the Falcons, Steelers, and Commanders. After a couple of tests against the Rams and Buccaneers, they'll have a chance to get a win or two with two of the next three against Atlanta.

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