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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 10

The 2022 NFL MVP race was flipped on its head following the Week 9 slate. Let's jump into the updated NFL MVP odds, including Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and yes, Geno Smith.
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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 10

The 2022 NFL MVP race is heating up with a lot of movement at the top. All it took was the Buffalo Bills losing to the New York Jets 20-17 in Week 9. Josh Allen has been sitting at +120 for most of the season as the MVP front-runner, but zero passing touchdowns and two interceptions on the road against the division-rival Jets have elevated a new face to the top of the NFL MVP race.

Insert Jalen Hurts.

Patrick Mahomes should not be written off either, as the 2018 MVP winner attempted 68 passes in an overtime win against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night to improve to 6-2. Geno Smith continues to climb the odds ladder with a fourth consecutive win in convincing fashion for Seattle, while Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins continue to linger thanks to accurate arms and big-play ability. Even Christian McCaffery, on his Bye Week, remains in the top ten MVP odds as the only non-quarterback through nine weeks.

Here we rank the top ten MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock drop?

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2022 NFL MVP Odds

OddsPlayerStock WatchImplied Chance
+250Jalen HurtsUp28.57%
+185Patrick MahomesUp35.1%
+310Josh AllenDown24.4%
+1100Lamar JacksonDown8.3%
+2000Joe BurrowDown4.8%
+2000Geno SmithUp4.8%
+1100Tua TagovailoaUp8.3%
+4000Kirk CousinsNeutral2.4%
+4000Justin HerbertDown2.4%
+15000Christian McCafferyDown0.7%

NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Jalen Hurts (+250) Bet $100 to collect $350. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

The homecoming game in Houston for Philadelphia's third-year quarterback, Jalen Hurts, got off to a bit of a rocky start. A lost fumble and a myriad of handoffs masked Hurts' elite playmaking ability, which emerged in the second half against the Texans. He finished with 21-of-27 pass completions for 243 yards and two touchdowns, leaning on A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert as the top receiving options in a run-centric Eagles offense. Hurts benefits from great surrounding personnel and remains undefeated in a parity-driven league. Hurts' odds jumped from +350 to +250 in Week 9, and I believe the odds will continue shrinking in value due to future high-caliber performances, so go ahead and place bets on Hurts with great value at +250 as the new MVP frontrunner.

2. Patrick Mahomes (+185). Bet $100 to collect $285. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

It was a historic night for Patrick Mahomes, who utilized his powerful arm 68 times to earn a sixth win for Kansas City against the vulnerable Tennessee secondary on Sunday night. The former 2018 MVP winner managed to complete 63.2 percent of his attempts for 446 yards and a touchdown while adding over 60 rushing yards and a touchdown as a ball carrier. He's the engine that drives this well-oiled Chiefs machine on offense, so placing bets on Mahomes to win his second MVP at +275 is fantastic value to tail.

3. Josh Allen (+310) Bet $100 to collect $410. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

The fall from the top didn't go too far for Josh Allen on Sunday. He had a few untimely dropped passes from his receiving corps after a quick start against a talented New York Jets secondary, but ultimately he had to lean on his mobility and physicality to put points on the board for Buffalo. Allen currently has the best value in terms of MVP odds that he's had all season due to a rare slip-up, but we've seen this happen a few times in previous years. How Allen responds against a red-hot Minnesota defense in Week 10 will signal whether or not investing in Allen to return to the top and win his first MVP award is realistic. Right now, I still like investing in Allen's ability to win, especially with how juicy the odds are after a tough loss to the Jets.

4. Lamar Jackson (+1100) Bet $100 to collect $1,200. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

Baltimore has battled injuries throughout much of the season, which makes their 5-3 record entering Monday Night Football against New Orleans that much more impressive. Lamar Jackson won an MVP before in 2019, but it was with his dynamic rushing ability and explosive passing throughout the regular season. It's been a mixed bag of results for Jackson in 2022. He has one of the most underwhelming receiving corps and has leaned heavily on star tight end Mark Andrews, who is expected to miss his first career game against the Saints on Monday. Even the backfield, which should be led by J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, is depleted and relying on Kenyan Drake as the RB1. Jackson is well outside of the top three MVP odds right now, and while it could change in the coming weeks, I expect the race to tighten without him due to quieter production. I'd fade Jackson despite the enticing +1200 odds.

5. Joe Burrow (+2000) Bet $100 to collect $2,100. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

Week 9 saw another Joe take over the Cincinnati offense, but Joe Burrow was very efficient, completing 78.6 percent of his pass attempts for 206 yards and a touchdown. Burrow has also scored a rushing touchdown in four of his previous five games, showcasing his mobility and vision as a ball carrier. The third-year franchise quarterback has thrown a touchdown every week of the 2022 season and has led the Bengals to three wins in their previous four games played. His odds dipped a bit from +1600 to +2000, but I'm a firm believer in Burrow's ability to finish strong with huge production down the stretch, even without star wideout Ja'Marr Chase. 20/1 odds is a fantastic payout, and Burrow warrants serious consideration at his current value in the MVP race.

6. Geno Smith (+2000) Bet $100 to collect $2,100. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

One of the most exciting narratives to emerge in the MVP race has been Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. The Seahawks were the subject of many jokes this offseason after trading Russell Wilson to Denver. No one thought Smith, a career journeyman, would step into the QB1 role with success. Hell, most of us thought Drew Lock would win the quarterback battle in training camp. As it turns out, we couldn't have been more wrong. Smith has thrown two or more touchdown passes in seven of nine games this season and has kept the Seahawks competitive with minimal mistakes and timely throws. My only reservation about betting on Geno at +2000 is the increasingly large role for rookie running back, Kenneth Walker, who appears to be a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This will devalue Smith's production if it continues, so I'm holding on to Smith until he cracks the top-four MVP odds.

7. Tua Tagovailoa (+1100) Bet $100 to collect $1,200. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

The start of Tua Tagovailoa's NFL career has been an absolute whirlwind and rollercoaster of emotions. The third-year quarterback finally has a coach scheming plays for his skillset and believing in him, while battling various injuries and concussions. A concussion in Week 4 on the road against the Bengals was particularly worrisome, but Tagovailoa has returned with a vengeance, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive weeks against Detroit and Chicago. I like taking the +2500 odds for Tagovailoa to win the 2022 MVP, especially since Miami is a pass-centric offense that features Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. All Tagovailoa has to do is stay healthy and continue making big throws, which will happen against upcoming opponents like Cleveland and Houston.

8. Kirk Cousins (+4000) Bet $100 to collect $4,100. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

Minnesota has been one of the most surprising teams in 2022, thanks to a revamped offense and a defense that is locking down opponents in crunch time. The opposite is customary, so naturally, Kirk Cousins has clawed his way into the MVP race with a 7-1 record. As good and efficient as Cousins has played, he has yet to throw over 300 yards or three touchdowns in a single game this season, but he's delivered several clutch throws to ice games in the waning moments. Minnesota throws 30 to 45 times per game, so Cousins still has an opportunity to improve his odds, but I don't think he'll climb much higher unless the Vikings win out decisively.

9. Justin Herbert (+4000) Bet $100 to collect $4,100. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

The Chargers are an enigmatic team. On the one hand, third-year quarterback Justin Herbert has a powerful arm and gets the opportunity to throw over 40 passes in most games. However, the lack of a run game and a porous run defense creates challenges for Herbert to overcome. Factor in that he's playing without his top two wide receivers, and it's impressive that the Chargers are winning games at all. A difficult upcoming schedule against San Francisco and Kansas City will determine whether or not Herbert and the Chargers are contenders. Herbert needs to continue producing at a monstrous rate to elevate his MVP odds, which may not be possible with the limitations surrounding him. I'm fading Herbert, especially since he hasn't recorded a 300-yard game or three-touchdown finish since Week 4.

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10. Christian McCaffery (+15000) Bet $100 to collect $15,100. Best odds available at FanDuel (click here)

The blockbuster trade that sent Christian McCaffery to San Francisco has only elevated the star running back's MVP odds. Head coach Kyle Shanahan traded away Jeff Wilson Jr. to pave the way for CMC to be the focal point of the 49ers' offense, which resulted in him throwing, running, and catching touchdowns in a decisive Week 8 road win against the Los Angeles Rams. The MVP is notoriously a quarterback award, so as cool as it is to see McCaffery in the MVP race, he's only one pedestrian game away from sliding outside of the top ten. Fade CMC and wait for a couple more weeks to see if he can produce huge performances against the Chargers, Cardinals, and Saints coming off of the Week 9 Bye.

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.


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