Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 10

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 10

2022 seems to be the year of the underdog in the NFL. Through nine weeks of action, underdogs are 77-56-3 for a 58% win rate versus the points. They have won more than 38% of games straight up, including a 4-7 record this past week. The Jets accounted for one of those four victories at home against the heavily favored (-11) Bills.

Did other underdogs make a notable move with wins? Which favorites took a dive in the Super Bowl odds? As we head into Week 10 of the NFL season, let's take a look.

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 10

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Super Bowl Odds Risers

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds (+500) (Bet $100 to Collect $600) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

It wasn't at all pretty, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs pulled out their sixth win of the year and fourth in the last five games (second straight) against the Titans. It was only a three-point margin in overtime, and Kansas City failed to score more than two touchdowns despite 29 first downs and a yard short of 500 in the confines of Arrowhead Stadium. It was as an unimpressive of an impressive win as you can have over a rookie quarterback and an inferior team that entered Sunday night as 12.5-point dogs.

If anything, the defense was a bright spot. It was gashed by Derrick Henry's 115 yards (56 on his long) on the ground, yet they held Malik Willis to 80 yards passing, a sub-33% completion percentage with three sacks. They did what they were supposed to do; after all is said and done, a win is a win. The offensive efficiency was still there, as it has been most of the time this season.

Through eight contests, Andy Reid's team is ranked fourth overall, according to Pro Football Focus. They check in third in offensive efficiency, including the third-best pass offense. And defensively, while they're a measly 25th versus the run, they are altogether 17th, including the league's 14th-best pass rush headed by 5.5 sacks by Chris Jones but supplemented by 3.5 from L'Jarius Sneed from his defensive back spot, 3.5 from Carlos Dunlap and another 3.0 via Frank Clark.

Their top-half defense and the elite offense have not only led them to a 6-2 record, but the Chiefs have now improved their Super Bowl odds from +1000 at the start of the year to +650 last week and to +500 -- in a tie for second -- rolling into a Week 10 matchup with the Jaguars. Their implied probability of 17% trails only the Buffalo Bills, their stiffest competition to come out of the AFC.

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New York Jets Super Bowl Odds (+7000) (Bet $100 to Collect $7,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

Speaking of the 6-2 Bills, they really tripped up for the first time this season and lost a game they were supposed to win. As double-digit road favorites at MetLife Stadium, Josh Allen and his crew were held to 17 points, with only 3 coming in the second half. The visiting Jets edged them by three points at the conclusion of the divisional matchup, pushing their own win total to six wins in the matter of nine games.

How did the Jets succeed as heavy underdogs? Let's step back and admit that it had very little to do with Zach Wilson. Although PFF gave New York a 70 grade on offense, the passing offense held down a run game that earned an 82.9 grade with 174 yards and a touchdown from the combination of Michael Carter, James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Wilson -- with his legs. They did so against a solid defense that wasn't quite at full strength, given the absence of Matt Milano.

The thing is, the Jets' constant has been their successful defensive approach. While they walked away with a 74.9 grade and 78.6 pass rush, coach Robert Saleh has his squad rated as the best defense in the NFL. Their 85.1 grade is more than 5 clear of the Broncos, as their pass rush trails only two teams, and their coverage -- led by star rookie Sauce Gardner -- only one. What else can you ask?

As most Jets would likely answer you, "Sustainability." The Jets need to keep it up with a serviceable offense and elite defensive unit. Following the Week 10 bye, they will travel to Foxboro for an AFC East showdown with the Patriots before an advantageous home game against the Bears. Weeks 13 and 14 will be big tests on the road versus Minnesota and Buffalo.

These Jets have come a long way to this point, regardless of where they end up. Back before Week 1, they were at +13000 and fell to as long as +30000 in Week 5. They cut their odds by more than half from last week (+15000), making the most substantial move to +7000 for an implied probability of 1.4%. They are now ahead of the Giants, Browns, Broncos, and Packers. Who would've thought?

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Buffalo Bills (+290) (Bet $100 to Collect $390) - Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Keeping with the "everything revolves around the Bills" narrative, Buffalo is also this week's most notable faller. After weeks of working toward improving their implied probability and shortening their odds at the very top, going from +550 at the open to +225 last week, their rise stemmed from the Jets' upset.

There's more to the Bills' falloff across sportsbooks than just the loss, too. It's only Buffalo's second loss. They were without a key defender and recently added another weapon -- Nyheim Hines -- to their backfield before the deadline. The largest looming issue is the health of stud quarterback Josh Allen.

In the Week 9 loss, Allen got dinged with what is reported to be an injury to the UCL (and potentially the surrounding nerves) in his right elbow. He's still under evaluation, and there's a chance the injury is less impactful than one might fear. Still, the uncertainty has caused oddsmakers to put a pause on their Buffalo love, especially with the news coming after a loss.

The loss did put their win total on par with the Jets, who have played one more game. But to boot, the Dolphins are also 6-3, with the 5-4 Patriots not too far behind either. In other words, it's going to be a battle for them to win the division and ensure themselves one of the playoff spots, let alone win the entire thing with a less-than-100% Josh Allen.

At this time, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Buffalo at -500 odds to capture the AFC East title, followed by Miami at +500, and New York and New England at a shared +2000. So, there still appears to be some optimism. That's why even though the Bills' Super Bowl odds declined by +65, their implied probability still makes them the leader in the clubhouse at nearly 26%.