2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 11
2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 11
Josh Allen's fall out of the top three in the 2022 NFL MVP odds is deserved, albeit shocking. He's been the betting favorite for the duration of the season, even with a loss to Miami earlier in the year, but a botched snap under center, combined with an interception that ended a thrilling overtime game between Buffalo and Minnesota, have sent Allen plummeting down the MVP odds.
On the other side, Kirk Cousins continues to build his MVP resumé, throwing for a season-high 357 yards and finding star wideout Justin Jefferson on a desperation heave to convert a huge fourth down. Cousins' odds jumped from 2.4% to 3.2% implied probability, improving from 40/1 to 30/1 following the Vikings' signature win.
New faces have arrived in the MVP race, while others have quietly exited. Tua Tagovailoa is the most notable riser, completing 71 percent of his pass attempts and posting a 6:1 touchdown to interception ratio to lead the red-hot Dolphins offense. Jalen Hurts is the only undefeated starting quarterback and can beat teams in a variety of ways, while Patrick Mahomes has already reached 25 passing touchdowns through nine games played.
Here we rank the top ten MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock drop?
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2022 NFL MVP Odds
|Odds||Player||Stock Watch||Implied Chance|
NFL MVP Power Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes (+125) Bet $100 to collect $225. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
There is only one player within the current top ten MVP odds who has won the prestigious award before. That's right. Patrick Mahomes won the 2018 MVP and also went on to win Super Bowl LIV 31-20 over the San Francisco 49ers. He's back on top of the MVP race after lurking in second or third place for most of this season and it's well-deserved. Mahomes has thrown for at least four touchdowns in three games and has finished with at least 330 passing yards in four consecutive outings. The Chiefs are a pass-centric team and have added weapons like Kadarius Toney into the mix to create a Super Bowl contender with Mahomes leading the way. He's still at plus-odds, which may evaporate down the stretch, so jump on +125 while you can still get good value.
2. Jalen Hurts (+500) Bet $100 to collect $600. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
Jalen Hurts is a polarizing quarterback. On one hand, his critics talk about him benefitting from a run-centric offense with one of the top offensive line units in the league. Others criticize Hurts for his passing mechanics, which have dramatically improved since developing his skillset in 2021. The result is a player who can beat defenses with his arm or legs, presenting a true dual-threat quarterback who can singlehandedly change a game. As long as the Eagles continue winning, which appears likely given their upcoming schedule, Hurts will sit near the top of the MVP odds. +500 is a better value than a week ago when Hurts was +250, so sprinkle some futures bets on Philadelphia's third-year quarterback as his favorable schedule could soon erode his value in the MVP race.
3. Tua Tagovailoa (+400) Bet $100 to collect $500. Best odds available at Bet365 (click here)
The most shocking development, outside of Geno Smith's ascendance into the MVP race, is the elite level of play produced by Tua Tagovailoa. We've seen him suffer numerous injuries and concussions, so even seeing Tagovailoa under center is an impressive feat. Factor in the eye-popping passing numbers, and it's no wonder why Tagovailoa is sitting comfortably tied for the second-highest MVP odds alongside Jalen Hurts. The third-year quarterback has logged three straight 300-yard, three-touchdown performances against Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form an elite wide receiving tandem that aids Tagovailoa, but head coach Mike McDaniel has instilled confidence and unlocked Tagovailoa's upside within Miami's new zone-blocking scheme. +400 could quickly turn into +250 or higher, so place your futures bets now before the Dolphins play Houston after their Bye in Week 12.
4. Josh Allen (+600) Bet $100 to collect $700. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
On one hand, we've never had the chance to bet on Josh Allen's MVP chances at +600. This is phenomenal value. However, Buffalo could be in danger of over-correcting its one-dimensional offense, which has allowed Allen to be the RB1 with improvised scrambles. Allen uncorks impressive deep balls and benefits from the presence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but the inconsistent run game allowed Minnesota to force four turnovers, including the game-winning interception in the end zone to hand Buffalo its second straight loss. Whether fair or not, MVP candidates need to be on winning teams, so investing in Allen at +600 makes sense from a value standpoint, but four tough divisional games remain, along with a trip to Cincinnati in Week 17. The UCL injury wasn't a huge issue in Week 10, but what will it look like in Week 15? I'm holding off on Allen despite the juicy odds until we see Buffalo get back to its winning ways.
5. Lamar Jackson (+1400) Bet $100 to collect $1,500. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
The beginning of 2022 made us reminisce about the dominant run Lamar Jackson displayed en route to winning the 2019 MVP. Since the hot start, however, the fifth-year quarterback has been underwhelming, doing enough to win but not enough to warrant serious MVP consideration. Baltimore has a slew of injuries that it's currently dealing with, including Jackson's favorite target, Mark Andrews, while Rashod Bateman's foot injury has left a void in the wide receiving corps. The good news is that we're seeing Jackson rip off chunk plays in the Ravens' rushing attack, averaging over 4.8 YPC in three straight games against relatively strong run defenses. I'm not laying any bets on Jackson quite yet, but he is capable of going on a late-season run out of the Bye Week, starting with two good matchups against Carolina and Jacksonville.
6. Joe Burrow (+2500) Bet $100 to collect $2,600. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
Cincinnati steamrolled Carolina before their Week 10 Bye, but Joe Burrow is quietly floating under the MVP radar. The third-year quarterback has been atoning for his five-turnover performance in an overtime loss against the Steelers with hyper-efficiency, completing at least 71 percent of his pass attempts in four straight games for the Bengals. Not all of them resulted in wins, but unlocking Joe Mixon and the rushing attack will allow Burrow to take even more deep shots to a tremendously talented wide receiving corps, which could get its top wideout, Ja'Marr Chase, back in the lineup sooner than expected. Burrow has great matchups out of the Bye against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Kansas City's porous secondaries, which makes me want to invest in Burrow's upside at +2500.
7. Kirk Cousins (+3000) Bet $100 to collect $3,100. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
We finally saw Kirk Cousins deliver a 300-yard passing game in 2022. Granted, it took overtime to get there, along with several clutch throws to star wideout Justin Jefferson, but Cousins has led Minnesota's offense to an 8-1 record in numerous one-score games. Yes, he's been the definition of clutch, excluding a bad outing on the road against the undefeated Eagles in Week 2. Two bad interceptions looked like the end of the road and the same old narrative began bubbling around Cousins, but his ability to make quick decisions, including scrambling for big gains in huge moments, has elevated his odds to 30/1 in the MVP race. It's going to take a 16-1 record for Cousins to have a realistic shot at winning, so as fun as the ride has been, I'd fade Cousins here until he creeps into the top five.
8. Geno Smith (+4000) Bet $100 to collect $4,100. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
Geno Smith remains entrenched in the MVP race despite not bringing his best stuff for four quarters against Tampa Bay in Munich, Germany. Smith wasn't even looked at as a starting-caliber quarterback in the offseason, so seeing his rank in the top ten this late in the season is incredible. The Seahawks ended up with decent statistics after a late push against the Bucs but Smith couldn't get going early against Tampa Bay's stout defensive front, finishing with 275 yards and two touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. The Bye in Week 11 could send Smith out of the MVP race due to other noteworthy performances, but he could still make a re-appearance down the stretch against the Raiders, Rams, and Panthers. Still, I don't think we're going to see Smith realistically climb much higher, so fading him is the best approach to utilize.
9. Tyreek Hill (+8000) Bet $100 to collect $8,100. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
The arrival of Tyreek Hill to South Beach has completely flipped the script about Tua Tagovailoa's abilities. As such, the NFL's leading wide receiver in yards (1,148), and receptions (81) warrant MVP consideration. It was easily one of Hill's worst finishes of the season against Cleveland, but the rushing attack was fully dialed in against the league's fourth-worst run defense. Despite the lack of volume we've grown accustomed to seeing, Hill still managed to score a touchdown, which has evaded him for much of the 2022 season. If Hill keeps accruing touchdowns and delivering 100-yard performances, he could improve his odds as the only non-quarterback in the 2022 MVP race. As enticing as it is to lay some money on Hill's MVP prospects at +8000, I'm holding until further notice.
10. Justin Herbert (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10,100. Best odds available at DraftKings (click here)
Despite getting tons of passing volume, third-year quarterback Justin Herbert is not delivering wins for the Chargers in big moments. Yes, the absence of his top wide receivers is a huge factor in the lack of production, but an anemic rushing attack also allows defenses to drop into coverage while bringing pressure to Hebert's face. Austin Ekeler check downs are good for padding the statistics, but Herbert has not recorded a 300-yard game since Week 2 while throwing only two touchdowns across his last two outings against the Falcons and 49ers. The rib injury sustained in Week 2 has to be playing a role in Herbert's lack of production, but he has thrown an interception in four straight games. Another loss or quiet performance against Kansas City or Arizona will likely drop Herbert off of the MVP radar. I have no confidence that he'll climb the ranks, so hold onto your money for more profitable future wagers.
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.