2023 NFL MVP Odds: Week 1 Power Rankings
NFL Week 1 is almost here, so Matt MacKay shares his NFL MVP power rankings and odds for the 2023 NFL MVP Race. This week, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are in the top 5.
Matt MacKay - September 5, 2023, 4:00 PM EDT
7 min2023 NFL MVP Odds: Week 1 Power Rankings
After a long offseason filled with plenty of player and personnel changes in the NFL, the dust has settled, leaving us with a lot of new scenarios and hierarchies to watch throughout the first few weeks of the 2023 NFL season. Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP Award in 2022, so naturally, the Chiefs' superstar quarterback is sitting at +600 odds atop the 2023 NFL MVP leaderboard heading into Week 1.
Close behind Mahomes is Joe Burrow at +700 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Cincinnati fell short against the Chiefs last year but beat them in the 2021 AFC Championship Game to advance the Bengals to the Super Bowl during Burrow's second year in the league. He'll benefit from a healthy Ja'Marr Chase and one of the most stacked wide receiving corps in the league yet again, while Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen rounds out the top three, even with Burrow, at +700 odds.
MVP is almost always a quarterback award in the modern NFL, so which personnel changes this offseason, on or off the field, will propel one of these signal-callers toward hoisting the Pete Rozelle Trophy at the end of the year? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back with his latest thoughts, predictions, and odds regarding the new 2023 NFL MVP race entering Week 1.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Click here for 2023 NFL MVP odds
ODDS | PLAYER | STOCK WATCH | IMPLIED CHANCE |
|---|---|---|---|
+600 | Patrick Mahomes | Up | 14.29% |
+700 | Joe Burrow | Up | 12.5% |
+700 | Josh Allen | Down | 12.5% |
+900 | Justin Herbert | Up | 10% |
+1200 | Jalen Hurts | Up | 7.69% |
NFL MVP Race
Patrick Mahomes (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Patrick Mahomes continues to win Super Bowls and MVPs despite only entering his seventh season in the league. Yes, his wide receiving corps continues to have question marks, but the 2022 MVP proved he can put up ridiculous numbers relying on brilliant play-calling from Andy Reid and his alpha tight end, Travis Kelce. Both return in 2023, so expect Mahomes to sit atop the MVP odds race until further notice.
Joe Burrow (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Joe Burrow closed the MVP race down the stretch last season, but he's got renewed motivation after losing to Mahomes and the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium a year ago. Armed with a potent offense led by Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, expect another monster season from Burrow in Cincinnati.
Josh Allen (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The past three seasons have seen Josh Allen produce video game numbers for the Buffalo Bills. News of Buffalo's offense shifting to a more run-centric scheme to protect Allen, however, could put a dent into the area he excels at, which is being a dynamic ball carrier. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could make Allen's numbers even more explosive in 2023.
Justin Herbert (+900) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
One of the biggest beneficiaries of this offseason, Justin Herbert's health is back to 100%, while he upgraded his wide receiving corps and received a new OC in Kellen Moore. Herbert projects for his best season yet, entering his fourth year in the league.
Jalen Hurts (+1200) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Jalen Hurts spent a few weeks in front of Mahomes during his breakout campaign for the Eagles, leading them to an NFC Championship and nearly beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Hurts has the best offensive line, great personnel, and the confidence to continue producing at an MVP level in 2023.
Aaron Rodgers (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
After nearly two decades in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers finally embarked on a journey to the East Coast, where he has renewed energy and motivation to earn his third MVP in four seasons. Garrett Wilson could be Rodgers' new Davante Adams in Gotham City.
Trevor Lawrence (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It didn't take long for Trevor Lawrence to progress following a disastrous, chaotic rookie season, flourishing under Jacksonville's first-year head coach, Doug Pederson. Lawrence should continue developing during his second season under Pederson, with plenty of weapons on the field.
Dak Prescott (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Gaining Brandin Cooks will be big for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, but head coach Mike McCarthy expressed his intention to run the ball heavily behind RB1 Tony Pollard. Prescott recorded the most interceptions in 2022, so he should improve, but his +1600 odds are a bit too short at the moment.
Tua Tagovailoa (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Another MVP candidate for a stretch of 2022, Tua Tagovailoa's health, has been the topic of discussion for the past 10 months. The Dolphins are a sneaky team with a great coach and an explosive wide receiving corps, so Tagovailoa could bounce back in a massive way in 2023.
Lamar Jackson (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2019 and is set up to replicate this feat in 2023 under new OC Todd Monken. He may have had the biggest overhaul at wide receiver, gaining Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. while retaining Mark Andrews and a fully healthy J.K. Dobbins. 16/1 is too long here, so let's take this number before it dries up after the first month of the season.
Justin Fields (+2000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The MVP darling this offseason has been Justin Fields, who recorded highlight reel plays, mostly with his legs, logging 7.1 YPC, 1,143 rushing yards, and eight touchdowns as a ball carrier. An improved offensive line, plus wideout D.J. Moore, could result in Fields dominating opposing defenses in 2023.
Deshaun Watson (+2500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
We don't have to assess the numbers to see how poor Deshaun Watson played down the stretch for Cleveland following his return from suspension. After a full offseason in Kevin Stefanski's system this summer, plus Elijah Moore getting added into a talent-rich offense means Watson could return to his former play in 2023.
Geno Smith (+3000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
No one predicted Geno Smith's breakout party in 2022, but he immediately silenced critics and doubters with his Week 1 win over former teammate and quarterback Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. Smith proved it wasn't a fluke for the rest of the season, taking the Seahawks to the playoffs, so I expect him to deliver even more with an upgraded wide receiving corps featuring rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Jared Goff (+3000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Jared Goff always gets underrated, but he's found a home under OC Ben Johnson in Detroit. Goff went to a Super Bowl with Sean McVay and the Rams not long ago, plus he plays behind a top-five offensive line, so if the Lions live up to the hype, Goff will climb the MVP odds.
Derek Carr (+3000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Derek Carr gets a fresh start in New Orleans after an ugly exit in Las Vegas, trading Davante Adams for Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. The Saints are an intriguing team, and despite my doubts, Carr could prove to be a solid upgrade in the Big Easy.
Brock Purdy (+3000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
As wild as it sounds, Brock Purdy plays in the perfect system for young, developing quarterbacks, plus he's surrounded by arguably the best collective personnel in the league. If Purdy continues to do what he did in 2022, expect his name to creep up the MVP odds race this season.
Jordan Love (+3500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Jordan Love finally gets his chance to step into the QB1 role that the Packers front office drafted him to be a couple of years ago. It could go well, or it could go very poorly. Either way, the Packers' personnel have talent, but Love's production might not be big enough to warrant real MVP consideration. Definitely a wait-and-see MVP prospect.
Russell Wilson (+4000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Sean Payton's arrival could save Russell Wilson's career, or it could continue to spiral. It's tough to tell, especially with injuries already piling up in Denver, but Wilson at +4000 is great value to sprinkle on.
Kenny Pickett (+4000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The consensus dark horse team in the AFC by many pundits is the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett's first year didn't produce big numbers, but he ground out wins in gritty fashion, so expect a more explosive 2023 season from Pickett following a great offseason by the Steelers front office.
Kirk Cousins (+5000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Year in and year out, Kirk Cousins hangs massive numbers as a passer. His rushing upside is virtually nonexistent. However, throwing passes to Justin Jefferson will keep Cousins in the MVP race, plus the addition of rookie wideout Jordan Addison, who could open the Vikings offense up even more in 2023.
Matthew Stafford (+6000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It's not a great outlook for the Rams right now, whether it's due to injuries, lack of depth, or coming off of an underwhelming season. Matthew Stafford's back injury could continue to linger behind a young, raw offensive line, which is why we're getting +6000 for his MVP odds.
Mac Jones (+6000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Adding Bill O'Brien back into the Patriots' play-calling role should greatly benefit Mac Jones as he enters his third season in the league. It felt like a year wasted with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge calling plays in 2022, so despite the lack of big names on offense, Jones has the arm and accuracy to put up a few more 300-yard, three-touchdown games in 2023.
Daniel Jones (+7500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Daniel Jones was an integral piece of the Giants' offense in 2022, which resulted in a road playoff win against Minnesota. Jones' accuracy as a passer has improved, while OC Mike Kafka and head coach Brian Daboll utilize his skillset to implement a potent RPO with Saquon Barkley. 75/1 is very good value for Jones, so it's worthwhile to sprinkle in this line.
Justin Jefferson (+10000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
At 100/1 odds, the first non-quarterback appears on the 2023 MVP odds. Naturally, it's Justin Jefferson who won Offensive Player of the Year in 2022, making absurd catches and running crisp routes to be a mismatch nightmare against nearly every opposing defensive back. As cool as it would be to watch Jefferson win the MVP, it would take a herculean effort from Cousins, who likely has reached his MVP ceiling, so this is simply a pipe dream betting Jefferson to win the 2023 MVP.
NFL Odds
