2023 NFL MVP Race: Tua Tagovalioa Still at the Top of the NFL MVP Odds Heading into Week 4

2023 NFL MVP Race: Tua Tagovalioa Still at the Top of the NFL MVP Odds Heading into Week 4

Week 3 gave us a ton of massive quarterback performances across the NFL, but no team shined brighter than the Miami Dolphins. Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, head coach Mike McDaniel schemed up a perfect game to wind up beating Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos 70-20 during Miami's first home game of the season.

Tagovailoa completed 88.5 percent of his pass attempts for 309 yards and four touchdowns, while avoiding an interception for the first time this season. His MVP odds rocketed up from +500 to +350 after routing the Broncos' defense, leaving Patrick Mahomes solely in second place at +500 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Mahomes threw three touchdown passes against a porous Bears defense, while Josh Allen accounted for two total touchdowns, including a 10-yard rushing touchdown, beating the Commanders 37-3.

Jalen Hurts continued to find the end zone via the Eagles' "tush push" goal-line formation, finding Olamide Zaccheaus for the first touchdown of the game on a deep crossing route under pressure against Tampa Bay. Hurts also threw two interceptions, but could've had at least one more touchdown pass if not for wideout A.J. Brown's numerous drops. Justin Herbert finally got a win for the Chargers, completing 40-of-47 pass attempts for 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, showcasing his strong arm ability with new OC Kellen Moore. Lastly, Lamar Jackson, who failed to throw a touchdown pass in an overtime loss to the Colts, turned back the clock to 2019, rushing 14 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns.

NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest updated NFL MVP Power Rankings ahead of Week 4.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Race into Week 4

Tua Tagovailoa (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Tua NFL MVP odds

Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL as the top passer in Week 3, completing 23-of-26 pass attempts for 309 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Dolphins' running game has also fully exploded, with rookie De'Von Achane complimenting veteran speedster Raheem Mostert to form a potent one-two punch, hauling in three of Tagovailoa's four passing touchdowns. A road trip for the first of two divisional matchups against the Buffalo Bills' stout defense will be a litmus test for Tagovailoa, who is back to leading the MVP odds race, just like he did in early 2022 prior to suffering a concussion. If Tagovailoa struggles in Week 4, his odds improve, however, a win over the Bills could shorten his MVP odds even more. Placing bets now, or waiting for a pedestrian outing, are both good choices to make when betting on Tagovailoa.

Patrick Mahomes (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Mahomes NFL MVP odds

Patrick Mahomes was on cruise control against the Chicago Bears, throwing three touchdown passes for 272 yards during a 41-10 rout at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes completed 72 percent of his pass attempts, adding three carries for 28 yards. He's likely going to stick around the top of the NFL MVP race, but a road matchup against a tough Jets defense could make Mahomes' odds longer, which means more value. Waiting on Mahomes to face Sauce Gardener and the rest of the Jets defense could result in Mahomes' MVP odds dropping to +600 or +700, so let's ride this one out for one more week.

Josh Allen (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Allen NFL MVP odds

Josh Allen finally found the end zone as a ball carrier against Washington in Week 3, adding another 35-yard touchdown pass to wideout Gabe Davis. Allen completed a season-low 62 percent of his pass attempts, but he still controlled the game from start to finish, relying on the Bills' defense to shutdown the Commanders offense. After a rough start, committing four turnovers in a loss to the New York Jets, Allen is firmly back in the MVP mix. He gets an improved Miami defense in Week 4, then the Jaguars and Giants, so at +700, we should wager on Allen's MVP odds now before they grow less profitable in the coming weeks.

Jalen Hurts (+800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Hurts NFL MVP odds

Philadelphia's run-centric offense continued to surge against a stout Tampa Bay defense, which saw Jalen Hurts find his way into the end zone using the "Tush push" goal-line formation to extend his scoring streak as a ball carrier. Hurts completed 62 percent of his pass attempts for one touchdown and two interceptions, but he could've had two more passing touchdowns to wideout A.J. Brown if they weren't bobbled and dropped. Washington's defense is next on the schedule for Hurts and the Eagles, which gave them fits a year ago. This feels like a wait and see betting line, as another pedestrian outing from Hurts against the Commanders could drop Hurts down to +1000 or lower, gaining value from a betting context.

Justin Herbert (+1300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Herbert NFL MVP odds

Los Angeles' franchise quarterback completed 85 percent of his throws for three touchdowns and 405 passing yards in a back-and-forth game against the Vikings, leading to the Chargers' first win of the 2023 season. Herbert has yet to throw an interception this season, while attempting over 40 passes in each of his past two games. A Week 4 matchup against the Raiders' struggling defense could quickly shorten Herbert's MVP odds, so at +1300, we need to place a bet on Herbert before he logs another big performance in a plus-matchup at home.

Lamar Jackson (+1400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Jackson NFL MVP odds

It was a disappointing outcome for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, losing to the Colts at home in overtime, but the former 2019 MVP did his part on the ground. Jackson rushed 14 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns, reminding us of his versatility and elusiveness as a ball carrier. He still managed to complete 71 percent of pass attempts for 202 yards and zero interceptions, while losing his second fumble of the season. If the Ravens wound up beating the Colts to remain undefeated, Jackson's MVP odds would likely be closer to +1000. He faces a tough Browns defense in Week 4 on the road, which could drop his odds down to +1700 or further if he struggles against Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. However, +1400 is still great profitability, so betting this line is a fine choice at this time.

NFL Odds

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