2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes Unseats Tua Tagovailoa in NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 6
2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes Unseats Tua Tagovailoa in NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 6
We're seeing quite a bit of movement in the NFL MVP odds race following Week 5. The biggest riser is San Francisco's second-year signal-caller, Brock Purdy, who just torched the Dallas defense for four touchdowns while continuing to avoid turnovers, extending his zero interception streak into Week 6.
Patrick Mahomes is back atop the MVP odds leaderboard following a 27-20 road win over Minnesota, as the reigning MVP and Super Bowl MVP leapfrogged Tua Tagovailoa to get back into first-place at +350. Tagovailoa looked sharp in Week 5, completing over 73 percent of his pass attempts for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, putting him slightly ahead of Jalen Hurts. Hurts continues to be highly efficient as a passer and ball carrier, recording 15 carries for 72 yards and a rushing touchdown against the Rams in Week 5, while throwing for over 300 yards and a touchdown en route to a 23-14 road win at SoFi Stadium.
Josh Allen fell the hardest from Week 4 to Week 5, putting up solid numbers but failing to secure the win overseas against Jacksonville. Allen totaled three touchdowns, extending his rushing touchdown streak, but threw an interception and fell into a double-digit deficit that was too much to overcome late in the game. Allen is now tied with Purdy in the NFL MVP odds race at +700 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay shares his latest analysis on how to wager these updated 2023 NFL MVP odds entering Week 6.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS | STOCK WATCH | IMPLIED CHANCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 | UP | 22.22% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +500 | NEUTRAL | 16.67% |
| Jalen Hurts | +600 | UP | 14.29% |
| Josh Allen | +700 | DOWN | 12.5% |
| Brock Purdy | +700 | UP | 12.5% |
NFL MVP Race Into Week 6
Patrick Mahomes (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Mahomes NFL MVP odds
Patrick Mahomes logged his best completion percentage of the season against Minnesota in Week 5, finishing with a 75.6 percent completion rate, tallying two touchdowns and zero turnovers. Mahomes also tied his season-high in pass attempts (41) in a plus-matchup against the Vikings' pass defense, handling business as expected. Next up, the Chiefs face the Denver Broncos' porous defense on Thursday Night Football. Mahomes has owned the Broncos, so with a great matchup looming, let's hammer Mahomes' MVP odds at +350 before they dry up after a dominant outing at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night.
Tua Tagovailoa (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Tua NFL MVP odds
Tua Tagovailoa continues to make the right decisions and is executing Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme perfectly. He thrashed the Giants in Week 5 to the tune of 22-30 for 308 yards and two touchdowns, while also throwing two interceptions. If Tagovailoa can return to the Week 1 numbers he posted in a shootout win over the Chargers, where he recorded 466 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, it's more realistic that he jumps up next to Mahomes. A Week 6 matchup against the Panthers could certainly lead to video game numbers for Tagovailoa again, so wagering his current +500 odds is a good investment to make.
Jalen Hurts (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Hurts NFL MVP odds
We hadn't seen Jalen Hurts use his legs nearly as much through the first four weeks of this season, but he toted the ball 15 times for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Rams during Philadelphia's 23-14 win in Week 5. Hurts has completed at least 62 percent of his pass attempts in every game played this year, recording over 300 passing yards in back-to-back games, so it seems like he's now entering his stride. Week 6 sends the Eagles into a tough matchup against a stout New York Jets defense on the road, where Hurts could continue to rely on his legs to gain chunk plays and find the end zone as a ball carrier to exploit the Jets' pedestrian run defense. +600 odds could turn into +800 or lower, so let's wait to see how Hurts performs in Week 6 before betting on his current MVP odds.
Josh Allen (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Allen NFL MVP odds
After picking apart Miami's defense with precision in Week 4, recording an 84 percent completion rate and five total touchdowns, Josh Allen regressed a bit against Jacksonville. The Jaguars seem to have Allen's number over the years, pressuring him into bad decisions and containing him in the pocket, but the Bills' franchise quarterback still recorded 359 passing yards and three total touchdowns during the loss in London. The Giants are the Bills' next game at home in prime time on Sunday Night Football in Week 6, so expect Allen to continue putting up elite numbers and leading the Bills back into the win column. +700 is great value on Allen's MVP odds, so let's strike now while this lucrative line exists at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brock Purdy (+700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Purdy NFL MVP odds
It's been a fairy tale career for Brock Purdy, rising up the ranks in San Francisco last season due to injuries and maintaining a firm hold on QB1 in Kyle Shanahan's souped up offense. Purdy tore apart Dallas' defense in Week 5, completing 70 percent of his pass attempts for 252 yards and four passing touchdowns against a top-tier Cowboys defense. His ability to find the open receiver and place the ball perfectly into tight windows is Purdy's best asset, while his mobility lets him buy extra time inside and outside of the pocket to extend plays downfield. He benefits from the personnel the 49ers have on offense, but a difficult matchup awaits in Week 6 on the road against the Browns, who are among the better defensive units against quarterbacks in the league this year. +700 could dip down to +1000 if the 49ers struggle or lose outright for the first time this season, so let's wait out betting on Purdy's MVP odds for now.
NFL Odds
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.