2023 NFL MVP Race: Tua Tagovailoa Surges Back into Top Spot in NFL MVP Odds

2023 NFL MVP Race: Heading Into Week 7

We witnessed several momentous underdogs win outright in Week 6, as both remaining undefeated teams, San Francisco and Philadelphia, lost on the road. As a result, the 2023-24 NFL MVP odds have shifted, with Tua Tagovailoa joining Patrick Mahomes at +340 to form a two-man tandem atop the MVP odds race. Mahomes didn't flash in Week 6, struggling at times against Denver, but he still wound up throwing for over 300 yards in a tough divisional matchup to lead the Chiefs to 5-0 since dropping their first game of the season against Detroit.

Josh Allen is next up in his own tier at +650, slightly elevating his MVP stock from a week ago, managing to record two touchdown passes in an ugly, low-scoring game against the New York Giants in prime time. The final two quarterbacks rounding out the top-five MVP odds are the ones who were previously 5-0. Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions on the road against the Jets' defense, failing to score in the second half, while Brock Purdy, who looked surgical during his first five games, finally threw an interception and suffered a bad loss to an elite Cleveland defense. Purdy wound up completing just 44 percent of his pass attempts for 125 yards, one touchdown, and an interception, dropping him from +700 to +1000.

NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest analysis on how to wager the current 2023 NFL MVP odds entering Week 7.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

NFL MVP Race Into Week 7

Tua Tagovailoa (+340) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

It took a 14-0 deficit for Miami's offense to wake up against Carolina in Week 6, but Tua Tagovailoa did what he does best, completing 67 percent of his pass attempts for three touchdowns while avoiding turnovers yet again. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert are an elite personnel group to be paired with, plus playing in head coach Mike McDaniels' West Coast offense has Tagovailoa playing top-tier football. As long as the offensive line continues to protect Tagovailoa, he should remain a frontrunner for MVP. +340 is a bit short, compared to +500 a week ago, but the Eagles' porous pass defense could see another big outing from Tagovailoa in Week 7, further devaluing his odds, so let's wager +340 now while it still exists.

Patrick Mahomes (+340) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Oddsmakers still value two-time MVP and Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes as an MVP frontrunner, even with more modest numbers to start his 2023 campaign. Mahomes has one game with three passing touchdowns, with only two games exceeding 300 passing yards. We've seen him rely on his mobility to get out of the pocket to extend passing plays downfield, along with being an effective ball carrier, which has helped the Chiefs close out a couple of close games. As mediocre as it sounds, Mahomes has been hyper-efficient and accurate, posting over a 70 percent completion rate in four of six games. The Chargers, Broncos, and Dolphins await on the schedule before a Week 10 Bye, so let's wait and see how he looks during this upcoming stretch before taking odds this short.

Josh Allen (+650) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Style points may not count in NFL playoff eligibility, but they do play a role in MVP voting. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns for the third consecutive game against the Giants in Week 6, but needed every second to seize the win against a short-handed, injured opponent. Allen saw his three-game rushing touchdown streak come to an end while throwing his sixth interception of the year. New England, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati are all tough matchups for Allen in the next few weeks, so we could wait these odds out, as they could dip as low as +1000 with another loss to one of these teams. Buffalo is not playing their best football right now, so let's hold on Allen, assuming the Bills lose one of their next three games.

Jalen Hurts (+850) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Philadelphia was out of sync the entire game against the New York Jets' stout defense, as Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and only one touchdown. Hurts attempted a season-high 45 passes during the loss, averaging a season-best 5.9 YPC and scoring his fifth rushing touchdown of the year. Hurts gets another tough matchup against a good Miami defense in Week 7, followed by Washington and Dallas, so he has a bit of a gauntlet to face as well. +850 is good value though, especially if Hurts finally gets his first win against Dak Prescott in Week 9, so let's lay +850 right now before it shortens with a win over Miami or Dallas.

Brock Purdy (+1000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

After going five games without an interception, including going 20-of-21 against Arizona in Week 4, plus tossing four touchdowns against Dallas in Week 5, Brock Purdy cooled off immensely against the Cleveland Browns' elite defense. Yes, Purdy lost Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffery before the game ended, but he completed only 44 percent of his pass attempts in a 19-17 losing effort. Purdy did lead San Francisco down the field to set-up a walk-off field goal attempt, but it missed, resulting in the 49ers' first loss of the season on the road in wet conditions against the Browns. Purdy gets a better matchup in Week 7, staying on the road against the Vikings, where he'll look to bounce back in an offense loaded with top-tier skilled players. We predicted a drop from +700 to +1000 with a loss to Cleveland in last week's article, so these odds could just as easily dry up if San Francisco wins by 20 points or more in Week 7. Betting this number right now is a good investment.