2023 NFL MVP Race: Dak Prescott Sits Atop NFL MVP Race Heading Into Week 15
The 2023 NFL MVP race remains tight as we enter the final four-game stretch of the regular season. But Dak Prescott sits atop the NFL MVP race. Matt MacKay breaks down the latest 2023 NFL MVP odds.
Matt MacKay - December 12, 2023, 12:46 PM EST
10 min2023 NFL MVP Race: Dak Prescott Sits Atop NFL MVP Race Heading Into Week 15
Unlike previous years, the 2023 NFL MVP race remains tight as we enter the final four-game stretch of the regular season.
Currently, Dak Prescott sits atop the NFL MVP odds, climbing from +300 to +155 after handling Philadelphia 33-13 in Week 14. Prescott's accuracy and pass volume have elevated him into the MVP favorite after a slow start earlier in the year. Most importantly, he hasn't thrown a single interception since Week 10 against the Giants. If Dallas beats Buffalo in Week 15, Prescott's plus odds may dry up and become -110 or lower, so this is another pivotal matchup for Dallas to win.
Brock Purdy threw for over 300 yards for the second consecutive week, beating Seattle 28-16. Purdy has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts in seven consecutive starts, operating Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offense with poise and efficiency. This is why he's just behind Prescott with +175 NFL MVP odds ahead of a favorable divisional road game against Arizona in Week 15.
After Prescott and Purdy, there's a big gap, then Lamar Jackson at +550. Jackson threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns for just the second time in Week 14, leading the Ravens to an overtime win against the Rams. This strong passing performance launched his MVP odds from +950 to +550, so an outright win over Jacksonville in Week 15 could give Jackson an outside shot of making a run at his second NFL MVP award.
Jalen Hurts' lackluster showing against Dallas, dropped him from +350 to +850, throwing zero touchdowns and failing to score a rushing touchdown for the first time since October. The Eagles' rest of season schedule is favorable, so we may see Hurts return to multi-touchdown performances, but he's still a longshot due to a soft schedule and losing back-to-back games against top NFC opponents.
Josh Allen leapt Patrick Mahomes in the NFL MVP odds following Buffalo's 20-17 road win over the Chiefs. Allen came out of his Bye and played an efficient game, scoring his 10th rushing touchdown in 2023. If the Bills win out, starting with a home game against Dallas in Week 15, Allen's MVP candidacy will take a massive leap towards becoming reality. Meanwhile, Mahomes is now +1600, after sitting atop the NFL MVP odds for several weeks before Kansas City lost back-to-back games against Green Bay and Buffalo.
Tyreek Hill suffered a lower-body injury against Tennessee in Week 14, returning to the game to finish with four receptions for 61 yards and no touchdowns despite facing a soft matchup. As a result, the Dolphins squandered a 14-point lead in the final three minutes, dropping Hill's MVP odds from +1500 to +2000, remaining the only viable non-quarterback option for NFL MVP entering Week 15.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to give us his latest analysis on how to wager these current 2023 NFL MVP odds with the playoff push now in full swing across the league.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS
Player | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
Dak Prescott | +155 | 39.22% |
Brock Purdy | +175 | 36.36% |
Lamar Jackson | +550 | 15.38% |
Jalen Hurts | +850 | 10.53% |
Josh Allen | +1400 | 6.67% |
Patrick Mahomes | +1600 | 5.88% |
Tyreek Hill | +2000 | 4.76% |
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 15
DAK PRESCOTT (+155) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Prescott
Getting blown out in prime time by San Francisco may have been the best thing to happen to Dallas this season. Since that loss, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense have been cooking opponents, with Prescott throwing at least two touchdown passes in seven straight contests.
He has a favorable rest of season schedule regarding his MVP odds, as wins over Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit will all look good on his MVP resumé. Prescott may dry up into minus odds with a road win over a revamped Bills team, so even though we're steadily losing value with each week that passes, Prescott is still a decent investment to make for NFL MVP.
BROCK PURDY (+175) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Purdy
Brock Purdy isn't going away despite Dak Prescott's strong performances. Purdy has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his past four games, completing over 70 percent of his pass attempts in seven consecutive contests. He'll go on the road against Arizona in Week 15, before a big home game against Baltimore's stout defense. At +175, we're still getting plus odds on Purdy, but if he beats the Ravens, he could end up challenging Prescott if Dallas loses to Buffalo or Miami during their next two games.
Oddsmakers clearly expect Purdy to be in the mix for the NFL MVP at +175 odds, so although it began at a much more lucrative price, wagering Purdy's current odds isn't a bad move to make.
LAMAR JACKSON (+550) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Jackson
Lamar Jackson appeared to be on his way out in the NFL MVP odds race, but a strong showing against Los Angeles in Week 14 resulted in his MVP odds skyrocketing back into contention. Jackson threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, while recording 70 rushing yards, his second-highest mark of the 2023 season, his most since Week 3.
Jackson has some tough opponents left to close out the season, including Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Miami during his next three contests. At +550, it's a smart choice to invest in Jackson's MVP odds, especially if he continues to be an efficient passer against secondaries that allow big plays through the air like the Jaguars and 49ers.
JALEN HURTS (+850) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Hurts
It's pretty evident that Jalen Hurts' knee injury is bothering him under center. The Eagles' franchise quarterback has only rushed for over 60 yards twice this season, while only recording one passing touchdown against Dallas and San Francisco.
Yes, the schedule opens up for Philadelphia and Hurts, starting with a road contest against Seattle's porous run defense, but it feels like it's a bit too late for him to challenge Prescott, Purdy, and Jackson for NFL MVP. +850 is enticing, but let's see how Hurts performs down the stretch, starting with a scrappy Seattle defense desperate for a win in Week 15.
JOSH ALLEN (+1400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Allen
All of a sudden, Josh Allen and the Bills look like a playoff team again. The Bye, combined with new play calling from OC Joe Brady, has allowed Allen and Buffalo's offense to be much more balanced, resulting in a big road win over Kansas City in Week 14.
Allen's mobility and usage as a ball carrier in the red zone has led to 10 rushing touchdowns this season, which is a big piece of why he's in the MVP conversation. Interceptions have also been a recurring theme, but if Allen can beat the Cowboys' stout pass defense at home in Week 15, his MVP odds will climb from +1400 to +500 or better. Now is the time to invest, as the Bills face Dallas before a softer matchup against the Chargers in Week 16, so let's stake a couple of units on Allen at +1400, assuming he and the Bills go on a run and make the playoffs.
PATRICK MAHOMES (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Mahomes
It's starting to look like 2023 won't be the year for Patrick Mahomes to hoist his third NFL MVP trophy. Kansas City's offense has struggled all season, with Mahomes' wideouts dropping passes. He's used his legs more often than we're accustomed to seeing in 2023, buying time to make off-schedule throws outside of the pocket, but the results haven't been the same as in past seasons.
+1600 is huge value to acquire, but with New England, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and the Los Angeles Chargers forming the only remaining regular season opponents on the Chiefs' schedule, Mahomes will need to put up video game numbers to climb the NFL MVP odds. Sprinkling on Mahomes isn't frowned upon, but let's not invest any significant capital in his MVP odds, due to an underachieving offense that hasn't been able to close out games in recent weeks.
TYREEK HILL (+2000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Hill
Tyreek Hill avoided a serious injury in Week 14 against Tennessee, returning after half time to compete and make a few big catches for Miami, albeit in a losing effort to the Titans. Miami's offense looks much better with Hill on the field, but without scoring touchdowns at a high rate, while being held to four receptions for 61 yards and no touchdowns in a favorable matchup this past week, oddsmakers have dropped Hill's MVP odds down from +1500 to +2000.
At this point, with three difficult matchups against the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens awaiting Hill and the Dolphins, he's not worth a heavy investment. However, if he goes off against these top-tier defenses, resulting in Miami winning out, he could return to a legitimate MVP candidate. Let's use caution and only sprinkle half a unit on Hill's current +2000 MVP odds.
NFL Odds
