2023 NFL MVP Race: Brock Purdy Jumps Dak Prescott as MVP Favorite Heading Into NFL Week 16

2023 NFL MVP Race: Brock Purdy Jumps Dak Prescott as MVP Favorite Heading Into NFL Week 16

The 2023 NFL MVP race continues to evolve, with plenty of candidates still left vying for the prestigious award. Dak Prescott, the odds-on MVP favorite a week ago after dismantling Philadelphia 33-13, is no longer atop the race, following a 31-10 road loss to Buffalo. Prescott dipped down to +800 after being available to wager at +155 in last week's MVP betting markets, replaced by Brock Purdy at -200 odds.

That's right, Brock Purdy, also known as Mr. Irrelevant, was the last pick selected in the 2022 NFL Draft but he's been producing big numbers in San Francisco's West Coast offense in 2023. Purdy is fresh off of a four touchdown outing against Arizona and remains hyper-efficient, staying poised in the pocket and brandishing a 16 percent touchdown rate on the road against the 49ers' divisional rival in Week 15.

Lamar Jackson has climbed back into the MVP odds race after Baltimore went into Jacksonville and won decisively, 23-7, to secure their fourth consecutive win and lock up a playoff berth. Jackson rushed for just south of 100 yards, while his mobility and ability to evade pressure in the pocket is his most notable asset. He's now second behind Purdy at +500 odds, looking to win his second MVP award, earning his first back in 2019.

We touched on Dak Prescott, who struggled early and often against Buffalo's defense on the road in Week 15, completing under 62 percent of his pass attempts for 134 yards and an interception. On the other sideline, Josh Allen managed his way to a second consecutive win over a top-tier opponent, giving the Bills momentum in their late-season playoff push. Allen only went 7-of-15 for 94 yards and a touchdown, but he didn't commit any turnovers and also scored his 11th rushing touchdown of the 2023 season.

Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes round out the current top-six NFL MVP favorites. McCaffrey had early season MVP momentum but had recently cooled off, before recording over 180 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals in Week 15. He's the definition of a most valuable player, despite the award almost always being reserved for quarterbacks. Mahomes, who finally got back on track with a 27-17 road win in New England, knows exactly what it takes to win MVP, already with two trophies in his collection. He threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, along with two interceptions, in a much-needed win for the Chiefs.

As we can see, the NFL MVP race is heating up with Purdy leading the pack. Interestingly enough, this sets up a Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup between Purdy and Lamar Jackson on Christmas night, which will go a long way towards deciding how oddsmakers and voters view the top NFL MVP candidates rest of season.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 16

BROCK PURDY (-200) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Purdy

Only a couple of weeks ago, Brock Purdy MVP odds were available to wager at +1600 odds. Now, at -200, oddsmakers are giving praise to the 49ers' signal-caller, who has thrown ten touchdowns and only one interception across his last three games played.

Purdy will face the Baltimore Ravens defense on Monday Night in Week 16, so if he stumbles and the Ravens win, expect Purdy's odds to drop back into +200 or longer value. For now, we should stay away from betting on Purdy, as -200 is extremely short and lacks any real profitability.

LAMAR JACKSON (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Jackson

The Ravens go as Lamar Jackson goes, which gives Baltimore's signal-caller an edge in the NFL MVP betting markets. Jackson surely has his eyes set on bigger achievements, like winning the AFC and getting to a Super Bowl, but his dual-threat ability and accuracy throwing the football creates a compelling MVP case.

Jackson will get a tough matchup on the road in prime time against the 49ers, which roster one of the best run defenses in the league. However, Arizona did rack up over 230 rushing yards in Week 15, while San Francisco has surrendered over 320 total yards of offense to the Eagles, Seahawks, and Cardinals in three straight games.

Here, we're obligated to wager Jackson's NFL MVP odds at +500, knowing that he needs to find a way to beat the 49ers in Week 16. If he succeeds, Jackson will usurp Purdy as the odds-on favorite, likely going down to +150 or lower, so let's strike now.

DAK PRESCOTT (+800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Prescott

After watching Dak Prescott's aerial assault lead the Cowboys to five consecutive wins, the magic ran out in Buffalo, as Dallas collapsed 31-10 in a lopsided blowout on the road. Prescott was under duress for much of the game, taking three sacks, while throwing an interception, completing under 62 percent of his pass attempts, and finishing with 134 passing yards.

+155 to +800 is a huge fall for Prescott to recover from. Dallas' schedule remains tough though, which gives him an outside chance of making a late push, assuming others in front of him stumble. The Cowboys face Miami in Week 16, followed by Detroit in Week 17, so if Dallas wins both games with big passing production from Prescott, he's right back in the top of the MVP discussion.

Sprinkle if you'd like since we're at +800, but it feels like Prescott will need another 300-yard, four touchdown outing against a tough Miami defense in order to become a serious MVP favorite again.

JOSH ALLEN (+800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Allen

Interestingly enough, Josh Allen has ascended the NFL MVP odds during the Bills' previous two wins over Kansas City and Dallas. This has more to do with Allen not committing miscues and turnovers, while managing the game in a more run-centric offense under new OC Joe Brady.

Allen didn't even complete eight passes during Buffalo's rout of Dallas, but he did extend his rushing touchdown count to 11 through 14 games played. Allen's mobility, strong arm, and dual-threat skillset create mismatches for opponents, and he'll look to extend Buffalo to a third straight win when they travel to SoFi Stadium in a favorable matchup against the hapless Los Angeles Chargers defense. This game could show us shades of the old Josh Allen, tossing over 300 yards and accounting for three to four touchdowns.

At +800, we're trending up from a week ago, but there's still a ton of value here. Assuming Buffalo wins out and makes the playoffs, which requires beating the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins, Allen is a strong MVP candidate to wager on. Invest accordingly at +800 before this number skyrockets up after a Week 16 matchup against the Chargers.

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for McCaffrey

Tyreek Hill has been replaced by Christian McCaffrey as the top non-quarterback prospect in NFL MVP betting markets. It's hard to argue with McCaffrey's MVP case, barring the fact that this is a de facto quarterback award. Adrian Peterson last won MVP in 2012, demonstrating that running backs can win MVP, although they have to produce career numbers on the field.

McCaffrey has been consistently dominant for San Francisco all season, averaging 5.3 YPC and sitting at 1,292 rushing yards, along with 20 total touchdowns, plus 57 receptions for 509 receiving yards. Nearly every metric is the best McCaffrey has achieved in his career. If he can score three more rushing touchdowns before Week 18 concludes, McCaffrey will surpass all previous records set in Carolina.

Baltimore's defense has been vulnerable to opposing running backs this season, with most of their playmaking residing in the secondary against the pass. McCaffrey could wind up with 100 total scrimmage yards and a couple of touchdowns in Week 16 against the Ravens, building an MVP resumé ahead of two matchups against soft run defenses to close the season. We should definitely invest a unit on McCaffrey's current +1600 NFL MVP odds, but nothing more, as Purdy is getting most of the credit at -200 odds due to being the quarterback of the 49ers' offense.

PATRICK MAHOMES (+2000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Mahomes

Here we are, with Patrick Mahomes climbing back into the MVP odds with a 300-yard outing against New England in Week 15. The Chiefs' two-game losing skid was snapped in a 27-17 win on the road, as Mahomes relied on Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and his running backs to move the football down the field and into the end zone.

Kansas City finishes its regular season against three teams playing their back-up quarterbacks, starting with Las Vegas in Week 16, followed by Cincinnati and Jake Browning in Week 17, with Easton Stick and the Chargers slated as the final regular season game on the road.

Expect Mahomes to dismantle these three defenses, who mostly have minimal support from their offenses due to injuries at the quarterback position. Sprinkling on Mahomes' MVP odds at +2000 is a smart investment, even if he has had mediocre production in 2023. Voters favor Mahomes in a lot of spots compared to other quarterbacks due to his past performances and he's already won this award twice, so a strong finish entering the playoffs will certainly make a compelling case for the two-time MVP and two-time Super Bowl MVP to win his third NFL MVP in 2023.

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