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Caleb Williams NFL Draft Odds: Who will Draft Caleb Williams?

Who will draft Caleb Williams at this year's NFL Draft? While the USC standout is projected to go first overall, could he move down the draft order? Check out the latest Caleb Williams NFL Draft odds.
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Who will Draft Caleb Williams? 

At -900 odds, the Chicago Bears are currently massive favorites to select Caleb Williams with the 1st overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This implies over a 90% chance that the Bears will draft the talented USC quarterback to be the future face of their franchise. 

The Washington Commanders at second overall have the next best odds at +400, though it is widely expected they'll draft North Carolina QB Drake Maye. 

While unlikely to draft Williams, the Patriots do lurk at 3rd overall with +750 odds to potentially throw a curveball. But oddsmakers strongly believe it will be the Bears naming Caleb Williams the #1 pick to kick off draft night. 

Team Odds Implied Probability 
Chicago Bears -900 90% 
Washington Commanders +400 20% 
New England Patriots +750 12% 
Atlanta Falcons +1400 7% 
Las Vegas Raiders +2500 4% 
Minnesota Vikings +3500 3% 
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 2% 
Seattle Seahawks +5000 2% 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6600 1.5% 
New York Giants +10000 1%

With -900 odds and a huge 90% implied probability, the Bears are still massive favorites to draft Caleb Williams first overall. After the Commanders, teams like the Falcons, and Raiders have slim chances in the single digits. The odds drop off sharply from there, with long shot teams like the Buccaneers and Giants unlikely to move up for Williams. But there remains a slight chance a team could trade up if they fall in love with the talented quarterback. 

Are the Bears nailed on for drafting Williams? 

Despite rumors that Caleb Williams would prefer to play elsewhere, the Chicago Bears remain overwhelming favorites to select the talented quarterback 1st overall in April's draft. According to recent odds, the Bears have a massive -900 odds (90% implied probability) of drafting Williams. This dwarfs the chances of any other team, with the Commanders next at just +400 (20%). With Chicago also potentially moving on from current QB Justin Fields, selecting Williams would give them a new franchise cornerstone to build around. And while some pundits have claimed Williams doesn't want to play in Chicago, he has since refuted those narratives. 

Are the Commanders a good fit to draft Williams?

Despite some rumors suggesting Caleb Williams may prefer the Washington Commanders, current odds give the team very little chance to actually draft the quarterback. The Commanders' odds to land Williams sit at +400 (20% implied probability). While those are the second-highest odds behind the favorite Bears, it still gives Washington merely a 1-in-5 shot in reality. Additionally, the Commanders are widely projected to draft North Carolina passer Drake Maye with their selection at 2nd overall. And even if they wanted Williams, it's unlikely the team has the trade assets to jump the Bears to the top spot. So unless Chicago unexpectedly passes on Williams, or the Commanders make an improbable trade up, all signs point toward Williams donning Bears colors in 2024 rather than ending up in Washington. Their –900 odds imply Williams will more likely join the rebuild in the Windy City. 

Will the 3rd pick Patriots draft Williams?

Sitting with the 3rd overall pick, the New England Patriots lurk as a potential wild card to draft Caleb Williams. However, current odds peg their chances as highly unlikely. At +750, the Patriots have just a 12% implied probability of selecting the talented passer. It's expected that New England will target a top wide receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. to support incumbent QB Mac Jones. And even if the Patriots did want Williams, pulling off a trade to jump both Chicago and Washington up to the 1st pick would require significant draft capital that Jerod Mayo may not part with. Unless an extreme long-shot trade materializes, Williams landing on the Patriots roster seems improbable. The odds and mock draft projections instead point to New England adding a dynamic pass catcher rather than a new quarterback. So Patriots fans probably shouldn't get their hopes up of Williams throwing to Harrison in Foxborough next season. 

Odds on Caleb Williams being the number 1 draft pick 

Player Decimal Odds Implied Probability 
Caleb Williams 1.11 90.9% 
Drake Maye 12.5% 
Marvin Harrison Jr 23 4.2% 
Jayden Daniels 11 8.3% 
Kool-Aid McKinstry 51 1.9%

Caleb Williams has an overwhelmingly high probability of being the first player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. With decimal odds of 1.11, Williams holds a 90.9% implied probability of being the top pick. By comparison, fellow top quarterback prospect Drake Maye is only at 12.5% to be first drafted. The odds heavily suggest Williams is a near lock to come off the board before any other player. Barring a massive shock, he is destined to be the top choice in April’s draft per the betting market. 

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