5 Most Popular Bets and Prop Bets for MNF: Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

5 Most Popular Bets and Prop Bets for MNF: Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

Tonight, on Monday Night Football, we get a battle for Texas as the Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys game takes center stage. There was a bunch of hype for this matchup before the year started and it was seen as a battle for supremacy in the Lone Star State. However, the Cowboys' current state leaves much to be desired.

Due to a Dak Prescott injury, Cooper Rush will be the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys in the foreseeable future. The last time we saw Cooper Rush he was struggling even to complete a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in a lopsided loss. Granted, the Eagles are one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the performance didn't exactly instill confidence.

As for the Texans, QB CJ Stroud has hit a bit of a sophomore slump after his Rookie of the Year showing in 2023, but he gets No. 1 option Nico Collins back this week. That, coupled with the fact that the Cowboys have lost their QB to injury, paves the way for the 7.5-point spread tonight.

So how should you make your NFL picks for tonight's game? Before you ride with the public, watch as we use the oddschecker+ expected value tool to break down how you should bet on tonight's game.

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Texans vs. Cowboys Odds

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Texans vs. Cowboys - 5 Most Popular Bets

1. Houston Texans -7 (-110)

It makes sense that the Houston Texans are massive favorites on Monday Night Football. It makes even more sense that the public is rushing to the window to bet on the Texans to win by more than a TD. The last time we saw Cooper Rush play football he was getting tortured by the Philadelphia Eagles. However, it's also been a struggle for the Texans at times over the last few weeks. Do we trust them to blow out the Cowboys when only one of the wins on the season has been decided by more than a possession?

Oddschecker+ EV Tool Pick: Cowboys ML (+285)

Shockingly, the oddschecker+ Positive Value Tool, which calculates the expected value of every bet, says the play for Cowboys vs. Texans on Monday Night Football is Cowboys ML. At +285, the implied probability of a win is 19%. However, our AI probability has the Cowboys' chances of winning at 31%, good for 19% EV.

2. Over 40.5 (-117)

I'm a little surprised to see so many people on the over for this one, but when you get a total as low as 40.5, you're bound to get the public hammering an over. The thing is that the Cowboys are going to struggle to get points tonight and Houston hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game since October 13. So, even if you expect the Cowboys to exceed their expected production, you'd need the Texans to do the same to go over the 40 points needed.

Oddschecker+ EV Tool Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)

The OC+ EV tool loves the under in this one and I tend to agree with our AI. This Houston offense isn't what it was last year and has struggled. The -105 odds on this under imply a 51% implied probability while the AI probability of the under hitting is 59%. That means the expected value of this play is 17%.

59% AI Prob 51% implied prob 17% EV

3. Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Nico Collins is finally back after missing five games due to a hamstring injury. When Collins went on IR, he led the NFL in receiving yards with 567 yards and his 113.4 receiving yards per game still is tops in the NFL. Fans are excited to see Nico Collins back in action so it makes sense to see a Nico Collins prop bets atop the list of props. Expect CJ Stroud to prioritize getting his No. 1 target involved early on.

Oddschecker+ EV Tool Pick: Nico Collins Over 104.5 Receiving Yards (+265)

Sure, the OC+ EV tool likes 70+ receiving yards, but the real value is on Collins' alt receiving line at 104.5 yards. You can get the over on that line at +265, implying a 27% chance he does it. However, the oddschecker AI says there is a 31% chance he gets to at least 105 yards receiving, good for 13% EV.

31% AI prob 27% implied prob 13% EV

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4. Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

With Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins out of the lineup, Texans RB Joe Mixon has hit his stride as one of the most consistent and efficient running backs in the NFL. However, with Collins back in the lineup tonight his rushing line seems a little high at 86.5. The OC+ EV tool says the play on his rushing yards is to bet the under, but there is another Joe Mixon bet that has even more expected value.

Oddschecker+ EV Tool Pick: Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)

Rather than betting on the outcome of Joe Mixon's rushes, the oddschecker+ EV tool says the better bet is to bet on him getting touches in the first place. Don't bet on Mixon's rushing total, bet instead on his rushing attempts. At -114, the implied probability he gets more than 20 rushes is 53%, meanwhile, our AI says the probability is 73%. At 37% expected value, it's one of the best bets you can make tonight.

73% AI Prob 53% implied prob 37% EV

5. Joe Mixon Anytime TD Scorer (-190)

Anytime you are betting on an anytime TD scorer, it's wise to stay away from odds this short. You wouldn't bet on a moneyline bet around the -200 mark, so why do it for a prop? With Nico Collins back in the lineup, there is reason to believe that Mixon will lose touches around the goal line instead of gaining any. -190 is too steep of a price to pay for an anytime TD bet.

Oddschecker+ EV Tool Pick: Jalen Tolbert Anytime TD Scorer (+500)

Not only is this Jalen Tolbert bet much more profitable than a -190 Joe Mixon prop, but it's the oddschecker+ Positive Value Bets Tool's favorite pick for the entire game. At +500, the odds imply Tolbert has just a 17% chance of reaching the end zone. However, our AI probability sits at 43% for a 156% EV. Stay away from Mixon's anytime TD prop and bet on Jalen Tolbert instead.

AI Prob 43% Implied prob 17% 156% EV