NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel Among Early Favorites in First Year with New Teams
The NFL Coach of the Year market is always an exciting thing to target in the preseason, especially if you feel strongly about a new rookie coach or expect one to lead his team much farther than his win or playoff total. Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel are in new places, can they succeed early? Tera Roberts breaks down the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds as training camp begins.
Tera Roberts - July 21, 2025, 2:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNFL Coach of the Year Odds: Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel Among Early Favorites in First Year with New Teams
The NFL season is looming just two months away from this past weekend, and there are several fresh coaches with new teams that are ready to make a splash.
Kevin O'Connell of the Minnesota Vikings won the award last year, and Kevin Stefanski led the Browns the year before. Both of those guys saw great success and overcame what was projected to be horrendous seasons to make the playoffs. That has been the formula as of late, but this year has a strong opportunity for a rookie coach to take it.
Ben Johnson has taken over the Bears, Mike Vrabel is back in New England, and Pete Carroll has headed back out west with the Raiders. Will any of these new guys be able to lead their team to the playoffs and ultimately bring home this hardware? Let's take a look at the latest NFL Coach of the Year odds as the season rapidly approaches.
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NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Coach | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Ben Johnson | +700 | 12.5% |
Mike Vrabel | +750 | 11.8% |
Liam Coen | +1400 | 6.7% |
Pete Carroll | +1500 | 6.3% |
Aaron Glenn | +1500 | 6.3% |
Dave Canales | +1600 | 5.9% |
Mike Macdonald | +2000 | 4.8% |
Jim Harbaugh | +2000 | 4.8% |
Sean Payton | +2000 | 4.8% |
Kyle Shanahan | +2000 | 4.8% |
Key factors that drive Coach of the Year:
- Overcoming perceived adversity
- Exceeding expectations
- Losing record to winning record
- Quarterback challenges
- Clutch or comeback performance potential
- Playoff berth
- First-year head coaches or veteran coaches elevating a bad team
NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Mike Vrabel +750 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Vrabel was unceremoniously ushered out of Tennessee despite winning Coach of the Year in 2021. He wouldn’t be the first repeat winner, and he has the strong potential to hit all the key factors to winning the award. Vrabel is a veteran coach inheriting a true rebuild with needs across all positions, except quarterback. Drake Maye showed promise, but he still has significant room for growth. While the Patriots making the playoffs will be an incredibly difficult task, it’s more possible than you would think. The Patriots’ front office had a fantastic offseason, making big investments in free agency at all positions of need and using their first round pick to grab a true anchor for their offensive line. New England also has the third-easiest strength of schedule. If the Patriots’ receiving corps exceeds expectations, a wild card spot is very realistic and Vrabel would be a shoo-in for COTY.
Liam Coen +1400 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
I recently discussed my preference for betting the over on the Jags’ win total and Coen is the most critical piece to a Jags’ bounceback season. While the Jags don’t have the same clear rebuild status as the Patriots, they have one big piece that could push Coen to a win: Trevor Lawrence. Despite being one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league, Lawrence is one of the more controversial quarterbacks because of the “generational” talent tag and woefully failing to live up to expectations. A big argument for his struggles has been coaching. If Lawrence has a career-best season, his success would be directly attributed to Coen. The Jags have a fairly straightforward path to a playoff berth that would seal the deal for Coen.
Brian Schottenheimer +3000 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
This is by far the least flashy but most practical winner on the list. A healthy Dak Prescott likely gives the Cowboys a playoff spot. The Cowboys have been underwhelming at receiver behind CeeDee Lamb and the addition of George Pickens could be the key to an offensive explosion. Schottenheimer is essentially a presumed placeholder and while taking the Cowboys to the playoffs wouldn’t be a major accomplishment, the shining star on his resume would be snagging an actual first round win with Prescott.
Mike McDaniel +3500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Yes, I have multiple AFC East teams in this list. There’s a logical reason for that. Whereas teams like Chicago and Seattle have the makings of excellent COTY candidates, they have the roughest path to getting to the playoffs because they’re the only team in their divisions that didn’t make the 2024 playoffs. Four playoff teams for the same division is possible, but the path is simply easier for teams in divisions where only one team made the playoffs.
The AFC East is wide open behind Buffalo. McDaniel’s odds a low because the overall perception of Miami is down, Tua Tagovailoa has been unreliable and the Dolphins didn’t make any major moves in free agency. However, there’s a very realistic path to COTY for McDaniel. A full year of Tagovailoa plus a favorable end-of-season schedule would get him there. Alternatively, the Dolphins made changes at backup quarterback, signing Zach Wilson and drafting Quinn Ewers. If Tagovailoa goes down and Wilson or Ewers are adequate enough to grab a Wild Card seed, that’s the recipe for overcoming adversity and earning votes.
- Other options: Ben Johnson +750, Pete Carroll +1600, Aaron Glenn +2500
More NFL Odds
