NFL Survivor Pool Predictions, Picks, Strategy for Week 7 Eliminator Challenge, Knockout Games
NFL Survivor is entering the meat of the schedule, and you have to decide if you want to start using the best teams or risk going down early. The Chiefs and Patriots are expected to be heavily used, with others taking shots on the mysterious Bears. Peter Alexis assesses the risk of each popular team in NFL Survivor predictions for Week 7.
Peter Alexis - October 16, 2025, 5:55 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL Survivor Predictions, Picks: Should You Roll with Chiefs in Week 7 or Save Mahomes for Later?
Welcome back to NFL Survivor Week 7, where most entries are intact after a limited amount of upsets in Week 6. We saw the big chop in Week 5, but it was business as usual last week, with favorites going 11-1 on Sunday before both the Bills and Commanders went down on Monday Night Football. But they only took a limited amount of users down with them.
Close to 60% of people will take the Chiefs or Patriots this week, as this is probably the first good time to take Kansas City after a slow start with rough opponents. The Patriots have been great and Drake Maye is starting to find his rhythm, but are they in for a trap against the Titans in a fired-coach game? Be careful with which route you choose.
In our main survivor pool, we've used the Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Lions, and now the Colts. The idea is to try and save the top teams to trust in later weeks. The main focus is using home teams and fading bad teams on the road, instead of targeting live dogs who can cause a ruckus like the Falcons and Bears did last week. As we turn to Week 7, let's evaluate the best choices for NFL Survivor 2025.
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NFL Survivor Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
- Spread: Chiefs -11.5
- Moneyline: -900
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 81%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 12
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 24%
Realistically, there's one safe survivor option this week, and it's the Chiefs. Unlike previous weeks with several options against backup QB's or obvious blowout spots, every other game has some sort of red flag, and we'll break those down. The Chiefs finally got their groove back, and now Rashee Rice is set to suit up on offense after a six-week suspension. Mahomes is leading the MVP race, and it feels like old times in KC after a slow start. They controlled the Lions throughout on SNF last week, and will now look to exercise all of their early-season frustrations on the Raiders this week as -11.5 favorites. This one is the can't lose option, but you do forfeit the future Chiefs value as they heat up. KC will be our play this week as we build on a strong start and take the best mathematical and football-sense option.
2. New England Patriots (at Tennessee Titans)
- Spread: Patriots -7
- Moneyline: -345
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 77%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 12
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 28% (Highest of the Week)
The Patriots aren't the biggest favorite on the board, but most survivor services expect them to be used the most. We've passed the first six weeks of the season, and now users are looking to get strategic. Many will hope to save the Chiefs for later weeks and use the Pats here as Drake Maye and the offense continue to sync up.
That's all well and good, but they're going against a Tennessee team that just fired head coach Brian Callahan on Monday. Teams in the "fired-coach" game since 2010 are 20-13 ATS and 17-16 straight up. That historical trend would say the Titans are a lot closer than 7-point underdogs this week at home, with new passion and resilience often displaying immediately after a failed coach leaves the franchise. Be careful with the Pats here, they are due for a letdown and the Titans should come out inspired.
3. Chicago Bears (vs. New Orleans Saints)
- Spread: Bears -4.5
- Moneyline: -225
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 57%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 12
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 20%
If you are one of those people trying to get strategic and save the good teams for later, then you might be considering using the Bears this week. We would not recommend that in this spot. Our FairPlay AI projects this at a much closer -2.5 spread, barely favoring the Bears at home here. The Saints are not the Titans or Jets, they are a very live dog. They just took down the Giants and kept it close with the Pats and Bills in the last three games. They aren't getting blown out by mediocre opponents, and Spencer Rattler is a gritty quarterback.
While you may want to prolong your future value by sneaking in the Bears here, you might be going home early. Chicago picked up a big win on the road on Monday Night Football, and now are set up with a brutal sandwich spot at home before visiting the Ravens next week. If you still want to take the Bears, you were at least warned.
4. Denver Broncos (vs. New York Giants)
- Spread: Broncos -7
- Moneyline: -375
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 71%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 4th out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 8%
Most people have already used the Broncos, so this may not apply. But the Broncos are a solid spot here. Sure, the Giants looked great a week ago taking down the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, and the Broncos looked atrocious against the Jets. Their defense is tremendous though, and Sean Payton should find a way to limit Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo pretty easily. Expect a lower scoring game, with Bo Nix doing enough to lead the Broncos to a third-straight win. Not our favorite pick on the board, but it should play.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)
- Spread: Steelers -5.5
- Moneyline: -270
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 70%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 12
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 13%
Mike Tomlin has been Mr. Consistent for Pittsburgh, finishing 18 straight seasons without a losing record. But he's never been phenomenal either. Part of that consistency is dropping a decent amount of games, especially on the road in prime time. The Steelers are 2-9 on the road in Thursday Night Football games, and now take on a much-maligned Bengals team. The defense in Cincy has been bad, and the offense might be worse. But Joe Flacco was brought in to try and steady it with his veteran presence, and here's his big shot on TNF.
Again, the Bengals are not the Jets or Titans, and there are a decent amount of stars on this roster. They are not simply going to be a free-fade every week in survivor just because Joe Burrow is out. People have been loading up against them in the last three weeks, and it paid out nicely, but that streak will come to an end eventually. If not tonight, then soon. This line has bounced around between -4.5 and -5.5, and it doesn't feel safe for the Steelers at all. If you truly like this matchup against the Bengals, see how it pans out tonight and then take the Steelers in Week 11 when they host Cincy, it's a free spot to look ahead.
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