NFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford Explodes to Heavy Favorite After Dominating Win Over Bucs on SNF
The NFL MVP race has crowned Matthew Stafford as the first heavy favorite of the season, and it'll be up to him if he can control it down the final third of the season. Stafford now has a 68% chance to win his first career MVP after 17 seasons, can he hold off youngster Drake Maye? Let's take a look at the latest NFL MVP odds after Week 12.
Peter Alexis - November 25, 2025, 12:30 PM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford Now Odds-On Favorite With 68% Chance in MVP Race
AAfter entering Week 12 with Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in a virtual tie, the NFL MVP market has now delivered its strongest verdict yet. Stafford is the clear frontrunner at -220 following a statement performance in primetime, while Maye slips to +280 despite extending the Patriots win streak to 9. Both quarterbacks won again, but only one produced the type of dominant, nationally visible outing that moves voters in November. Stafford’s early blitz on Sunday Night Football has placed him firmly in the driver’s seat.
Meanwhile, the rest of the field continues to fade. Jonathan Taylor stalled out in a quiet game against Kansas City, Josh Allen delivered a disastrous performance on the road in Houston, and Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown in a comeback win over the Colts. None of the three were rising anyway, but their latest showings all but locked in the idea that this MVP race is now a two-man showdown. With only seven weeks left to play, the window for any late charger is shrinking fast.
Let’s break down the updated board and where each candidate stands after Week 12.
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NFL MVP Odds Breakdown
Matthew Stafford (-220) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Stafford strengthened his MVP resume more than any player in the league this week. He threw three touchdowns in the first half alone in a 34-7 demolition of Tampa Bay, finishing with another clean outing that showcased elite efficiency.
His touchdown to interception ratio is now 30 to 2. For context, during the Rams Super Bowl season in 2021, he posted a 41 to 17 ratio. This is a wildly improved version of Stafford, and with Los Angeles favored in every remaining game, he has a clear path to continue padding his numbers. If he keeps stacking multi touchdown games while the Rams run away with the NFC West, the award is his to lose.
Drake Maye (+280) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Maye remains firmly in second place, keeping New England’s win streak alive with a road victory over the Bengals. The Patriots have now won 9 straight, but Maye’s individual line did not help him gain ground. Nearly 300 passing yards was solid, but one touchdown and an interception did not match the firepower Stafford displayed.
New England’s schedule tightens in December, giving Maye opportunities for bigger moments, but he now needs a defining performance. Consistency has kept him in the race. Brilliance is required to close the gap.
Jonathan Taylor (+2000) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Taylor drops from +900 to +2000 after a quiet outing against the Chiefs. The Colts depended heavily on him early in the season, but the last few weeks have not delivered the explosive production needed to keep a running back relevant in an MVP race dominated by elite quarterbacks. Indianapolis needs wins, Taylor needs big numbers, and neither happened in Week 12. He remains a longshot.
Josh Allen (+2500) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Allen’s odds fell from +475 to +2500 after arguably his worst performance of the season. He failed to throw a touchdown in a road loss to Houston, turned the ball over, and once again struggled away from Buffalo. At 7-4, the Bills are rapidly losing playoff footing, and voters rarely reward quarterbacks on mediocre teams.
Allen still has elite upside, but the path is almost gone. His must win test this weekend comes in Pittsburgh, and anything short of a dominant bounce back will close the book on his candidacy.
Patrick Mahomes (+2500) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Mahomes also failed to throw a touchdown, but his odds barely moved because he was already drifting toward longshot territory. The Chiefs beat the Colts, but the offense once again looked inconsistent.
Kansas City will have a major national spotlight game at Dallas on Thanksgiving, which gives Mahomes a chance to resurrect his campaign if he delivers something spectacular. He needs a momentum surge, but nothing about this Chiefs offense suggests one is coming. His MVP hopes are hanging by a thread.
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