NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Mike Vrabel Remains Favorite As Kyle Shanahan Surges into Race
Mike Vrabel remains the NFL Coach of the Year favorite after Week 16, but Kyle Shanahan and others are breathing down his neck. Peter Alexis breaks down the rest of the NFL Coach of the Year odds with just two weeks left in the regular season.
Peter Alexis - December 24, 2025, 3:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL Coach of the Year Odds: Can Mike Vrabel Beat Out Kyle Shanahan, Ben Johnson, Others in Tightly-Contested COTY Race?
The NFL Coach of the Year race has shifted again as we enter Week 17, and what once appeared to be a runaway has now reopened into one of the most volatile awards markets of the season. Mike Vrabel remains the favorite, but his grip on the award has loosened considerably as oddsmakers and bettors reassess both résumé and context with just two weeks left. Division races, schedule strength, and late season surges are now driving this market more than preseason expectations.
Vrabel’s Patriots are still the league’s most improved team on paper, but cracks have appeared in the narrative. New England finally saw its 10 game win streak snapped after blowing a 21 point home lead to Buffalo earlier this month, and while they responded with an impressive comeback win of their own against Baltimore on Sunday night, skepticism has grown around how battle tested this team truly is. Only two of the Patriots’ 12 wins have come against teams with winning records, and their schedule now grades as the easiest faced by any team in the past 25 years. That context has mattered to voters before, and it is now reflected in the odds.
At the same time, new challengers have surged late. Kyle Shanahan has emerged almost out of nowhere as a serious threat after guiding an injury ravaged 49ers roster to an 11-4 record and a playoff berth. Mike Macdonald continues to rise with Seattle in the thick of both the NFC West and the conference picture. Ben Johnson remains alive after an emotional overtime win against Green Bay, while Liam Coen has quietly entered the conversation as well. What once felt settled is now a five way race that could swing dramatically based on division titles and seeding over the final two weeks.
Looking for advanced AI predictions and props to enhance your NFL betting? Try out oddschecker+ now on this limited time 7-day free trial!
2025 Coach of the Year Odds
Click here for complete NFL COTY Odds
NFL Coach of the Year Odds Breakdown
Mike Vrabel (+180) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Vrabel remains the betting favorite, but the market has clearly cooled from its previous confidence. After sitting at -195 earlier this month, he now checks in at +180 despite New England holding a sizable AFC East lead. The résumé is still strong. Vrabel took over a franchise that had been irrelevant for years and immediately restored its identity, discipline, and defensive backbone. Drake Maye’s development into an MVP caliber quarterback has only strengthened that case.
The concern now lies in perception. New England’s schedule strength is a legitimate talking point, and voters historically have penalized teams that pile up wins without marquee scalps. The Patriots still control their destiny and could clinch the division comfortably, but if they stumble or finish without a statement win, Vrabel’s edge could evaporate quickly. He is still the man to beat, but this is no longer his award to lose.
Kyle Shanahan (+330) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Shanahan has become the most fascinating storyline in the market. Just weeks ago, he was priced at +3600 and barely mentioned. Now he sits at +330 after dragging one of the most injury depleted rosters in the league to an 11-4 record and a playoff spot. San Francisco has lost or played extended stretches without Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Brock Purdy, yet continues to win.
The ceiling for Shanahan’s candidacy is extremely high. The 49ers are still alive in the NFC West and trail Seattle by just one game, with a head to head matchup at home in Week 18. If San Francisco finds a way to win the division after everything they have endured, Shanahan’s case becomes undeniable. This is no longer a longshot narrative play. It is a very real threat to the favorite.
Mike Macdonald (+375) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Macdonald’s odds continue to shorten as Seattle stays firmly in the conference title conversation. The Seahawks are 12-3, boast one of the league’s best defenses, and remain in a tight NFC West race with both the Rams and 49ers. Macdonald’s defensive imprint has been obvious all season, and the offense has held steady despite turnover and adversity.
For Macdonald to win, Seattle likely needs to claim the division or finish with a better record than San Francisco. If the Seahawks hold off the Rams and fend off the 49ers down the stretch, his case strengthens considerably. He may not have the shock factor of Shanahan or the narrative weight of Vrabel, but his consistency keeps him firmly in the mix.
Ben Johnson (+600) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Johnson remains alive after Saturday night’s dramatic overtime win against Green Bay, but his odds drifting to +600 reflect the difficulty of the road ahead. The Bears have exceeded expectations and continue to stack wins, but the market remains skeptical of their ability to close against elite competition down the stretch.
Chicago’s offense has been the calling card, and Johnson’s schematic impact is undeniable. However, compared to Vrabel’s turnaround or Shanahan’s survival act, Johnson’s case hinges on continued winning against playoff level opponents. Another marquee win could swing momentum quickly, but he currently sits just behind the top tier.
Liam Coen (+750) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Coen has quietly emerged as a legitimate contender in his first season as head coach of the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 11-4, riding a six game win streak, and just delivered one of the most impressive results of Week 16 by knocking off the Broncos in Mile High as road underdogs, snapping Denver’s 11 game winning streak in the process. That victory vaulted the Jaguars firmly into the AFC playoff picture and pushed Coen further up the board.
Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football of the season, thriving in Coen’s system with new weapons like Jakobi Meyers, and the offense has finally found consistency to match its talent. Jacksonville has a real case as an AFC contender, but the work is not finished. The Texans remain a threat in the AFC South, and Coen likely needs to secure the division to seriously challenge the leaders in this market. At +750, he remains a rising option, though he faces a crowded field of first year coaches with equally compelling narratives.
More NFL Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
