NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Tyler Shough Surges Behind Tetairoa McMillan in Two-Horse Rookie Race
The Offensive Rookie of the Year race is down to two main contenders, and Tyler Shough is making it tough on Tetairoa McMillan in the final weeks. Can the Saints Rookie QB overtake the Panthers wideout with two games left? Peter Alexis analyzes this OROY race as we wrap up the regular season in late December.
Peter Alexis - December 24, 2025, 4:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Tyler Shough Catch Tetairoa McMillan in Final Weeks of OROY Race?
Two months ago, the Offensive Rookie of the Year race felt crowded but predictable. Several rookies jumped out early, production was spread around the league, and the market shifted weekly as new names flashed. As the season has worn on, though, that depth has thinned dramatically. Injuries, stalled offenses, and fading team success have eliminated most of the early contenders, leaving this award in the hands of a much smaller group as we approach the final stretch.
That has allowed Tetairoa McMillan to steadily separate himself from the pack. While others peaked early and faded, McMillan has been the most consistent rookie offensive weapon in football, delivering production exactly when it matters most. With Carolina surging late and now sitting atop the NFC South, his statistical output has been paired with team success, which is often the deciding factor in awards voting.
The only real resistance comes from an unlikely challenger. Tyler Shough has surged from complete afterthought to legitimate threat after taking over as the Saints starting quarterback and guiding them through a late season winning streak. Meanwhile, Emeka Egbuka’s early dominance feels like a distant memory, as injuries and instability around him have pushed his odds far down the board. With just weeks left, this race has narrowed to three names, and McMillan is firmly in control.
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2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Breakdown
Tetairoa McMillan (-280) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
McMillan has grown into a commanding favorite for good reason. He sits just shy of 1,000 receiving yards with seven touchdowns on the season, and five of those scores have come over the last five games. Carolina has leaned on him heavily as the stakes have risen, and he continues to deliver in big moments. Last week, he cleared 70 yards and found the end zone in a critical NFC South win over the Buccaneers, a result that pushed the Panthers into the division lead with two games remaining.
That timing matters. Awards voters love late season momentum, and McMillan has become the engine of a Panthers offense that suddenly looks playoff ready. If he scores again in the Week 18 rematch against Tampa Bay and helps Carolina clinch the division, it may be enough to lock up the award outright. With limited competition remaining and McMillan still stacking meaningful production, his move from slight favorite to heavy chalk reflects full control of the race.
Tyler Shough (+375) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings SportsbookClick here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Shough has been the story of the last few weeks in this market. Just a short time ago, he was sitting beyond +3000 with little path to relevance. Since taking over for Spencer Rattler, he has stabilized the Saints offense and helped string together three-straight wins, keeping New Orleans alive down the stretch. While his numbers are not eye-popping, they are steady and effective. He now sits at roughly 1,700 passing yards with seven passing touchdowns and two more on the ground.
More importantly, the Saints are winning. In a weak rookie class where few players are separating statistically, team success can carry significant weight. Shough still has work to do, though. New Orleans travels to Tennessee as slight favorites before closing the season in Atlanta as road underdogs. If the Saints win out and McMillan cools off statistically, Shough has a realistic chance to make this race uncomfortable late. The odds reflect that possibility, even if he still trails clearly behind the leader.
Emeka Egbuka (+1800) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel SportsbookClick here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Egbuka’s slide has been one of the clearest examples of how quickly this award can shift. He looked like a runaway candidate early in the season, but he has not scored a touchdown since early November against New England. Since then, lingering hamstring issues and constant turnover in the Buccaneers wide receiver room have stalled both his production and his momentum.
He is not completely eliminated, but the path is narrow. Egbuka would likely need multiple explosive games down the stretch, including 100 plus yard performances and multiple touchdowns, while also helping Tampa Bay clinch a playoff spot. Given the instability of the offense and his recent usage, that scenario feels unlikely. His odds reflect a player still respected by the market, but no longer in control of his own destiny.
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