NFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford Flips Back to MVP Favorite After Week 18, Reclaims Slim Lead Over Drake Maye
The NFL MVP race has flipped back again, with Matthew Stafford stealing the favorite slot away from Drake Maye in the final weekend of football. Can he hold onto his slim advantage as the votes come in? Peter Alexis reviews the final NFL MVP odds after the end of the regular season.
Peter Alexis - January 5, 2026, 10:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL MVP Odds: Did Matthew Stafford Do Enough to Steal MVP Away from Drake Maye in Week 18 Blowout?
The NFL MVP race flipped one final time after a dramatic Week 18 slate, and Matthew Stafford now enters the postseason as the betting favorite. Just one week ago, Stafford’s MVP case looked nearly dead after a brutal Monday Night Football loss to the Falcons in which he threw three interceptions, nearly doubling his season total. That performance sent his odds tumbling as high as +250 and opened the door for Drake Maye to take firm control of the market.
Stafford responded exactly when it mattered most. On Sunday, he carved up the Arizona Cardinals for four touchdowns, locking up a Rams win, the NFC’s 5 seed, and a return to contender status in the eyes of both bettors and voters. With Week 18 now in the books, the MVP odds have swung sharply back in his favor. Stafford sits at -165, while Maye has drifted to +150 after a quieter statistical finish.
This late season reversal underscores just how narrow the margin is between the two quarterbacks. With voting imminent, the debate now centers on veteran dominance versus breakout brilliance, and whether raw production or team turnaround carries more weight in a season where quarterback play league wide has taken a noticeable step back.
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NFL MVP Odds Breakdown
Matthew Stafford (-165) Check out these best odds at Fanduel Sportsbook
Stafford’s final stat line is the strongest argument in this race. He finished the regular season with 4,700 passing yards, a career high 46 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. In an era where elite quarterback seasons have become rarer due to injuries, retirements, and stalled development, Stafford’s production stands out even more than it might have a decade ago. He led the Rams offense week after week while navigating a demanding schedule and carried them into the playoffs as legitimate Super Bowl threats.
Context also favors Stafford. The Rams did not win the NFC West or earn a bye, but they enter the postseason as one of the most dangerous teams in the conference. They open as -10 favorites against a weak Carolina Panthers team and are widely expected to make a deep NFC run, with Seattle viewed as their primary obstacle. Stafford has never won an MVP across his 17 year career, often overshadowed by historic seasons from other quarterbacks. With fewer monster stat lines league wide this year, voters may finally view this as his window.
Drake Maye (+150) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Maye’s season should not be discounted, even with the late odds movement. He finishes just under 4,400 passing yards with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions, strong numbers for a young quarterback leading a Patriots team that exceeded expectations and secured the 2 seed. For much of the final stretch, Maye was the clear MVP favorite, sitting at -300 or shorter, as his consistency and command of the offense stood out week after week.
Week 18, however, hurt his case. Maye threw for only 191 yards and one touchdown against Miami, a game in which New England did not need him to do much in a comfortable win. While that context matters, MVP voting often comes down to final impressions and cumulative stats. The Patriots also benefited from the easiest schedule in the NFL in the last 25 years, with a heavy slate of opponents finishing below .500. That is not Maye’s fault, as he beat everyone in front of him and led a remarkable turnaround, but it does factor into how voters compare resumes.
Who Will Win NFL MVP This Year?
This race remains close, but the numbers favor Stafford. The gap between 46 touchdowns and 31 is significant, especially when paired with identical interception totals and a tougher schedule. Voters must decide whether to reward Stafford’s late season surge and historic production or Maye’s emergence as a franchise cornerstone who stabilized New England faster than anyone expected.
As it stands, the market believes Stafford did just enough in Week 18 to reclaim the edge. Whether voters agree will define one of the tightest MVP finishes in recent memory.
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