2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Fernando Mendoza Rockets to 99% Chance After Dante Moore Stays at Oregon
The 2026 NFL Draft is all but locked up on the First Overall Pick now, as Dante Moore decided to return to Oregon on Wednesday afternoon. Fernando Mendoza had already ended any semblance of a debate last week in the College Football Playoff semifinals with a 30-point blowout win and five touchdowns, but now he has a 99% chance of getting selected first by the Raiders. Peter Alexis breaks down the latest NFL Draft developments as of Wednesday, January 14th.
Peter Alexis - January 14, 2026, 3:10 PM EST
5 Minute Read2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Is Fernando Mendoza a Complete Lock for First Overall Pick After Dante Moore Drops Out?
The first‑overall pick race has been completely reshaped after a chaotic week in college football and a stunning decision from one of the draft’s former frontrunners. Dante Moore, once viewed as the only quarterback capable of challenging Fernando Mendoza for the No. 1 spot, has officially announced he will return to Oregon for another season. The move comes just days after the Ducks were blown out by more than 30 points in the College Football Playoff semifinal, a game in which Moore struggled badly and turned the ball over three times. His decision also complicates the future of Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola, who committed to Oregon expecting a chance to start but may now need to reconsider with Moore locked in as QB1 for 2025.
For Oregon, Moore’s return stabilizes the program after a humbling postseason exit. The Ducks will enter next year with a veteran quarterback, a top‑five recruiting class, and a roster that still profiles as a playoff contender. But for the 2026 NFL Draft, Moore’s withdrawal from the class removes the only realistic challenger to Mendoza. The market reacted instantly: Moore, previously +340, is now off the board entirely, and the quarterback hierarchy behind Mendoza has been reshuffled.
The biggest beneficiary is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who delivered a flawless five‑touchdown performance in the semifinal while Moore melted down. Mendoza now sits at –7000, an implied 98.6% chance to be the first overall pick. What was once a two‑man race is now a near‑certainty. With the Raiders holding the No. 1 pick and desperate for a franchise quarterback, the path is wide open for Mendoza to become the top selection.
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2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds
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Fernando Mendoza (-7000) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mendoza has turned the race into a formality. His semifinal performance of five passing touchdowns, zero turnovers, and complete command of the offense cemented everything scouts already believed about him. He’s efficient, poised, and elevates the players around him. His season totals now include elite accuracy, elite decision‑making, and a spotless postseason résumé.
The odds movement from –390 to –7000 reflects not just Moore’s collapse and withdrawal, but Mendoza’s dominance. He has become the safest quarterback prospect in the class, the most polished, and the most NFL‑ready. With the Raiders locked into the top pick and no longer facing a meaningful decision, the market has effectively closed.
Mendoza’s rise mirrors the trajectory of quarterbacks who separate late in the process: clean mechanics, consistent production, and peak performances in the biggest games. Unless something unprecedented happens, he will be the first name called in April.
Reuben Bain Jr. (+5000), Arvell Reese (+5500) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
With Moore gone, the non‑quarterbacks move back into the picture, at least on paper. Miami pass rusher Reuben Bain Jr. and Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese have re‑entered the top tier of longshots, but their odds reflect reality: neither is expected to challenge Mendoza. Bain’s disruptive ability and Reese’s athleticism make them potential top‑10 picks, but the positional value and the Raiders’ needs make a defensive player at No. 1 extraordinarily unlikely.
Ty Simpson (+7500) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
The most interesting ripple effect comes from Ty Simpson, who elected to enter the draft despite a shaky playoff showing. With Moore returning to school, Simpson suddenly becomes the second‑highest‑rated quarterback in the class. That puts the Jets, holding the No. 2 pick, in a fascinating position.
Do they take Simpson despite concerns about consistency, or do they trade down to a QB‑needy team and accumulate draft capital? With Mendoza locked in at No. 1, Simpson’s stock may hinge entirely on how desperate teams become for a quarterback after the top pick is off the board.
The draft landscape has changed dramatically in just one week, and the ripple effects of Moore’s decision will continue to shape the top of the board all offseason.
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